Where Texas ranks in ESPN's updated preseason SP+ rankings
ESPN’s SP+ is curated by Bill Connelly and is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.” With most of the second transfer portal window dust has settled, there’s enough data for Connelly to update his rankings ahead of preseason training camp for the 2024 season. In Connelly’s Tuesday update, the Texas Longhorns were the No. 4 team in ESPN’s updated preseason SP+ rankings, trailing only No. 3 Oregon, No. 2 Ohio State, and No. 1 Georgia.
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Rounding out the top 10 was No. 5 Alabama, No. 6 Michigan, No. 7 Penn State, No. 8 Ole Miss, No. 9 LSU, and No. 10 Notre Dame.
According to ESPN, SP+ is based on three factors: returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history. The Longhorns rank No. 35 in returning production according to ESPN, good for fifth in the SEC.
Recent recruiting includes high school and portal efforts, two areas where the Longhorns have been strong. Texas’ 2024 class was ESPN’s No. 5 overall group, its 2023 crop was ranked No. 3, the 2022 signees were ranked No. 5, and the 2021 signees were ranked No. 15. Texas’ portal class was called the No. 9 group of the winter window but the Longhorns’ spring haul did not earn inclusion in ESPN’s 10-team ranking.
In the last three seasons, Texas has gone 5-7, 8-5, and 12-2. The Longhorns finished No. 48 in 2021, No. 7 in 2022, and No. 6 in 2023 in SP+.
Each phase of the game had specific SP+ ratings. Steve Sarkisian‘s Longhorn offense was the No. 4 group in offensive SP+ behind No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, and No. 3 LSU. Pete Kwiatkowski‘s defense was No. 12 in defensive SP+ behind SEC teams No. 5 Georgia, and No. 8 Alabama. Jeff Banks‘ special teams were No. 17 in that side of the ball’s SP+ rankings.
The Longhorns had a 63.2% chance of going 10-2 or better in SP+’s estimation.
Texas is one of the 133 teams chasing the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs. UGA’s overall SP+ rating was 36.3, which was 3.6 points clear of No. 2 Ohio State and 6.8 clear of Texas at 29.5.
The distance between Georgia and Texas is similar to the gap between the No. 4 Horns and No. 11 Missouri.
Teams from Texas’ non-conference schedule include the aforementioned No. 6 Wolverines, No. 53 UTSA, No. 98 Colorado State, and dead-last No. 134 UL-Monroe.
The Southeastern Conference boasted ten of the top 25 teams in SP+, ahead of the Big 10 with six, the ACC with four, and the Big 12 with four. Independent Notre Dame was No. 10. The highest ranked Group of Five team was Boise State at No. 38.
The SEC in SP+
1. Georgia
4. Texas
5. Alabama
8. Ole Miss
9. LSU
11. Missouri
13. Texas A&M
15. Oklahoma
16. Tennessee
25. Kentucky
31. Auburn
33. Florida
43. South Carolina
46. Arkansas
68. Mississippi State
97. Vanderbilt
Texas’ 2024 schedule in SP+ (rating in parenthesis)
98. Colorado State (-9.8)
6. Michigan (27.5)
53. UTSA (1.7)
134. UL-Monroe (-23.7)
68. Mississippi State (-2.3)
15. Oklahoma (19.3)
1. Georgia (36.3)
97. Vanderbilt (-9.7)
33. Florida (9.6)
46. Arkansas (4.7)
25. Kentucky (12.4)
13. Texas A&M (19.8)
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Average SP+ ranking: No. 49
Average SP+ rating: 7.2 – Equivalent of No. 39 Memphis
