OT: Significant snowstorm on Friday night into Saturday
- Thread starter Mikemarc
- Start date
You miss the announcement NJ is the Garden State April thru Oct then State of Emergancy Nov thru March (non Covid mode) ?
Nada in No. Plfd. But based on our resident canine observer’s report, it should be here soon.
Murphy is out of state probably in Italy so Lt. Governor made the call.
That cutoff line is nuts. 8" to 1" in what seems like a very short distance
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Well i already have that point1 here in ringoes in the pellet form. For reference just under the state's chin.That cutoff line is nuts. 8" to 1" in what seems like a very short distance
Just started snowing lightly here around 5 pm...
And Lee Goldberg, Channel 7, earlier this afternoon, cut back on snowfall for most of NJ, moving his 4" line, which was from about Clinton to Brick, to about Belvidere to NB to Long Branch, with 2-4" of snow/sleet SW of that line and 4-8" NE of that line, so those areas are unchanged and his 2" line from about Philly to Tuckerton didn't change. Seems reasonable.
And Lee Goldberg, Channel 7, earlier this afternoon, cut back on snowfall for most of NJ, moving his 4" line, which was from about Clinton to Brick, to about Belvidere to NB to Long Branch, with 2-4" of snow/sleet SW of that line and 4-8" NE of that line, so those areas are unchanged and his 2" line from about Philly to Tuckerton didn't change. Seems reasonable.
Most models have had very sharp cutoffs, which is why forecasting in mixed precip events is so damn difficult.That cutoff line is nuts. 8" to 1" in what seems like a very short distance
Bravo to Lee while Mt Holly doubled downJust started snowing lightly here around 5 pm...
And Lee Goldberg, Channel 7, earlier this afternoon, cut back on snowfall for most of NJ, moving his 4" line, which was from about Clinton to Brick, to about Belvidere to NB to Long Branch, with 2-4" of snow/sleet SW of that line and 4-8" NE of that line, so those areas are unchanged and his 2" line from about Philly to Tuckerton didn't change. Seems reasonable.
We shall see who is correct and even Lee might end up overdobe as well
The hourly for our locale (Allenwood) has been racheted back to 1-3" again, with the hourly showing around 2 with mostly rain. I like that.Just started snowing lightly here around 5 pm...
And Lee Goldberg, Channel 7, earlier this afternoon, cut back on snowfall for most of NJ, moving his 4" line, which was from about Clinton to Brick, to about Belvidere to NB to Long Branch, with 2-4" of snow/sleet SW of that line and 4-8" NE of that line, so those areas are unchanged and his 2" line from about Philly to Tuckerton didn't change. Seems reasonable.
What are you thinking for our area? Forecasts are a joke and literally all over the map.
You win an all expense trip to Italy with Tahesha Way.
Has been fairly light snow/sleet since about 5:10 pm - we have a dusting! 27/14F (surface/dew point), so clearly nowhere near saturation yet, so precip is light and will often be sleet and even freezing rain early on before there's enough lift to get the water vapor up 12-15K feet up to the dendritic growth zone where good snowflakes are made (by elves). Right now, we're probably only seeing condensation of water droplets at maybe 8000 feet where it's too warm like -5C (not -10 to -20C is best), which then fall and freeze on the way down as sleet. When the column saturates more and we get better lift, we should get snow. For awhile - not sure how long. Many reports of sleet changing back to snow as intensity increases.
messy here in hboro. frozen sleet (or whatever it is) will not be a fun morning. grill cover is now a solid structure of ice and pellets
Ouch. Looks like the NAM was right all along. Big fail for numerical modeling today, assuming this verifies. Warnings dropped for Warren, Somerset, Middlesex and Monmouth and snowfall amounts cut back there and SW of there, by quite a bit. Concern now is whether this could mean a lot more freezing rain, which would suck. Updated snow and ice maps below.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
621 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
620 PM update...
Well, that changed quickly. The models that were surging in the
warm air aloft (NAM in particular) seem to have mostly had a
handle on things, at least across our CWA, with most areas
already changed to freezing rain and sleet. Have made a
significant cut to snowfall totals, which necessitated dropping
the warnings for Monroe, Warren, Middlesex and Monmouth
counties. That having been said, we are now starting to get
anxious about ice accumulation, since several more hours of
freezing rain may put some areas in the game for ice storm
warning criteria (1/4 inch). Made some upward adjustments in the
ice forecast and will watch obs closely over the next few
hours.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
621 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
620 PM update...
Well, that changed quickly. The models that were surging in the
warm air aloft (NAM in particular) seem to have mostly had a
handle on things, at least across our CWA, with most areas
already changed to freezing rain and sleet. Have made a
significant cut to snowfall totals, which necessitated dropping
the warnings for Monroe, Warren, Middlesex and Monmouth
counties. That having been said, we are now starting to get
anxious about ice accumulation, since several more hours of
freezing rain may put some areas in the game for ice storm
warning criteria (1/4 inch). Made some upward adjustments in the
ice forecast and will watch obs closely over the next few
hours.
Attachments
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1766793305105.png
Other end of the state but just drove the 2 miles from Brielle to the beach. Roads are getting pretty icy.
Yup just took the trash to the curb. All sleet and freezing rain it seems like now. Everything was slick.
The more things change the more things stay the same. It just doesn’t snow in NJ. But by all means the hype machines will go blah blah blah. These forecasters forecasting is like Pike coaching.
You don't see other posters bringing up Pike comparisons in a weather thread do you?
