OT: Stock and Investment Thread

T2Kplus20

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Also, quarterly rebalancing for GRNY:

A summary of the changes made during this rebalance is provided below:




 
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Anon1751565407

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From Tom Lee and crew:

How PPI Ended Up Not Being a Disaster

It’s safe to say yesterday morning’s wholesale inflation report took us all by surprise. Kinda like summer showers, washing away hopes for jumbo interest-rate cut that some so naively believed they deserved.

The producer-price index rose 0.9% in July from the month before, coming in much hotter than the 0.2% expected by economists. It marked the biggest jump since June 2022. Core PPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, also climbed 0.9% on the month, higher than the 0.3% expected.

Digging deeper, it was worrying to see what pushed up PPI. The biggest jump came from services, which rose 0.945%. It’s not the best piece of news because it means inflation could be moving from goods to the more sticky services prices. The idea is that once you get used to making a certain amount of money for your service, it’s hard for you to lower your rate.

Within that services segment itself, the biggest contributor was trade services, rising 2% from the month before. What is that vague sounding term? It’s the margin mark-up that wholesalers and retailers charge, a concerning sign that tariffs are actually showing up. Last month, the margin they were charging went up the most in machinery and equipment, followed by a bunch of finance-related services like portfolio management.

A few minutes after the open, the S&P 500 fell as much as 0.4%.

But here’s how investors were able to convince themselves this isn’t the worst report ever, leading the broad-based index to finish barely higher, in turn setting a fresh record. Hey, I say a win is a win.

On the totem pole of economic reports, PPI doesn’t rank at the top and it doesn’t help that it’s been way too volatile recently. Investors watch it only because components from the PPI report filter through to the personal-consumption-expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation report.

As everyone is already ultra-aware, the Fed is under insane amounts of pressure from the president to cut rates. So when the report suggests that wholesale inflation is up 3.3% from a year ago, running above the central bank’s 2% target, it really ties their hands.

Well, color us lucky. The PPI numbers going into PCE don’t look all too shabby. Let me explain how. Within PPI, there’s two kinds of data sets: PPI Commodity and PPI Industry. From PPI Commodity, the BLS calculates final demand PPI, which is the headline number I wrote about in the second paragraph.

Meanwhile, in the PPI Industry, both final demand and a bunch of other stuff is included, which can cause the numbers and contributors to differ. This is what is used to create the PCE report.

Yesterday’s report showed that the top three highest-weighted PPI items going into the PCE aren’t related to tariffs. Here’s what they are: Hospitals rose 3.2% from a year ago, physician services rose 1.8%, and portfolio management and investment advice services rose 12.4%.

That means a 25-basis point cut in September is still very much on the table. Hopes for a bigger rate cut were unrealistic anyway.
I love Tom Lee because he is thorough. But him saying the PPI report wasn’t problematic because the worst is yet to come inflation-wise isn’t comforting.
And why doesn’t he realize that MSTR is a Ponzi? Or maybe he knows but he also knows that it’s still an early stage Ponzi and therefore it’s still a good Ponzi.
 

T2Kplus20

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May 1, 2007
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I love Tom Lee because he is thorough. But him saying the PPI report wasn’t problematic because the worst is yet to come inflation-wise isn’t comforting.
And why doesn’t he realize that MSTR is a Ponzi? Or maybe he knows but he also knows that it’s still an early stage Ponzi and therefore it’s still a good Ponzi.
SS is a ponzi and that's been going on for 90 years now. :)
 

Anon1751565407

New member
Jul 3, 2025
28
10
3
From Tom Lee and crew:

How PPI Ended Up Not Being a Disaster

It’s safe to say yesterday morning’s wholesale inflation report took us all by surprise. Kinda like summer showers, washing away hopes for jumbo interest-rate cut that some so naively believed they deserved.

The producer-price index rose 0.9% in July from the month before, coming in much hotter than the 0.2% expected by economists. It marked the biggest jump since June 2022. Core PPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, also climbed 0.9% on the month, higher than the 0.3% expected.

Digging deeper, it was worrying to see what pushed up PPI. The biggest jump came from services, which rose 0.945%. It’s not the best piece of news because it means inflation could be moving from goods to the more sticky services prices. The idea is that once you get used to making a certain amount of money for your service, it’s hard for you to lower your rate.

Within that services segment itself, the biggest contributor was trade services, rising 2% from the month before. What is that vague sounding term? It’s the margin mark-up that wholesalers and retailers charge, a concerning sign that tariffs are actually showing up. Last month, the margin they were charging went up the most in machinery and equipment, followed by a bunch of finance-related services like portfolio management.

A few minutes after the open, the S&P 500 fell as much as 0.4%.

But here’s how investors were able to convince themselves this isn’t the worst report ever, leading the broad-based index to finish barely higher, in turn setting a fresh record. Hey, I say a win is a win.

On the totem pole of economic reports, PPI doesn’t rank at the top and it doesn’t help that it’s been way too volatile recently. Investors watch it only because components from the PPI report filter through to the personal-consumption-expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation report.

As everyone is already ultra-aware, the Fed is under insane amounts of pressure from the president to cut rates. So when the report suggests that wholesale inflation is up 3.3% from a year ago, running above the central bank’s 2% target, it really ties their hands.

Well, color us lucky. The PPI numbers going into PCE don’t look all too shabby. Let me explain how. Within PPI, there’s two kinds of data sets: PPI Commodity and PPI Industry. From PPI Commodity, the BLS calculates final demand PPI, which is the headline number I wrote about in the second paragraph.

Meanwhile, in the PPI Industry, both final demand and a bunch of other stuff is included, which can cause the numbers and contributors to differ. This is what is used to create the PCE report.

Yesterday’s report showed that the top three highest-weighted PPI items going into the PCE aren’t related to tariffs. Here’s what they are: Hospitals rose 3.2% from a year ago, physician services rose 1.8%, and portfolio management and investment advice services rose 12.4%.

That means a 25-basis point cut in September is still very much on the table. Hopes for a bigger rate cut were unrealistic anyway.
I love Tom Lee because he is thorough. But him saying the PPI report wasn’t problematic because the worst is yet to come inflation-wise isn’t comforting.
And why doesn’t he realize that MSTR is a Ponzi?
SS is a ponzi and that's been going on for 90 years now. :)
Admittedly I don’t follow crypto stuff closely but I did catch an analyst discussing Saylor’s strategy and he mentioned the paying of preferred dividends to shareholders despite Bitcoin holdings not paying interest. Meanwhile, the company’s revenues are basically stagnating or growing very slowly at best.
Saylor is quite the salesman.
 

Rutgers Chris

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Nov 29, 2005
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I love Tom Lee because he is thorough. But him saying the PPI report wasn’t problematic because the worst is yet to come inflation-wise isn’t comforting.
And why doesn’t he realize that MSTR is a Ponzi?

Admittedly I don’t follow crypto stuff closely but I did catch an analyst discussing Saylor’s strategy and he mentioned the paying of preferred dividends to shareholders despite Bitcoin holdings not paying interest. Meanwhile, the company’s revenues are basically stagnating or growing very slowly at best.
Saylor is quite the salesman.
They will be one of the richest companies in the world or the cause of a black swan event. No in between
 

RUBlackout

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Mar 11, 2008
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I love Tom Lee because he is thorough. But him saying the PPI report wasn’t problematic because the worst is yet to come inflation-wise isn’t comforting.
And why doesn’t he realize that MSTR is a Ponzi?

Admittedly I don’t follow crypto stuff closely but I did catch an analyst discussing Saylor’s strategy and he mentioned the paying of preferred dividends to shareholders despite Bitcoin holdings not paying interest. Meanwhile, the company’s revenues are basically stagnating or growing very slowly at best.
Saylor is quite the salesman.
Because the company he is the chairman of BMNR will also b a ponzi so might as well ride together
 
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T2Kplus20

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Yes it is on Friday 8/15. It could come early tomorrow, hope it isn’t delayed like Kalvista & Novovax’s recent (eventual) proposals.🤞
Tonix stock halted on pending news. We shall see very soon!

UPDATE (but stock still halted):

Approved!
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP.NaE) , a fully-integrated biotechnology company, today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Tonmya™ (cyclobenzaprine HCl sublingual tablets) for the treatment of fibromyalgia in adults. Tonmya is a first-in-class, non-opioid, once-daily bedtime analgesic with a unique sublingual (under the tongue) formulation that is designed for rapid absorption into the bloodstream. Tonmya is the first new FDA-approved therapy for the treatment of fibromyalgia in over 15 years.

 
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CatManTrue

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Tonix stock halted on pending news. We shall see very soon!

UPDATE (but stock still halted):

Approved!
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP.NaE) , a fully-integrated biotechnology company, today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Tonmya™ (cyclobenzaprine HCl sublingual tablets) for the treatment of fibromyalgia in adults. Tonmya is a first-in-class, non-opioid, once-daily bedtime analgesic with a unique sublingual (under the tongue) formulation that is designed for rapid absorption into the bloodstream. Tonmya is the first new FDA-approved therapy for the treatment of fibromyalgia in over 15 years.

This is going to skyrocket once the hold is lifted.

hope you bought shares when it sold off this morning! I own quite a few 😇

 
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T2Kplus20

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This is going to skyrocket once the hold is lifted.

hope you bought shares when it sold off this morning! I own quite a few 😇

I did buy shares! Not a crazy amount since you never know with the FDA, but enough for a full position in my personal account. I was thinking about call options, but went with shares since it may be good to hold for a while.

First treatment in 15 years, non-opioid, phase 3 data looks strong. Might be a home run medication.
 

phs73rc77gsm83

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I did buy shares! Not a crazy amount since you never know with the FDA, but enough for a full position in my personal account. I was thinking about call options, but went with shares since it may be good to hold for a while.

First treatment in 15 years, non-opioid, phase 3 data looks strong. Might be a home run medication.
Agree, hold rather than call options
 

Rutgers Chris

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Nov 29, 2005
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I did buy shares! Not a crazy amount since you never know with the FDA, but enough for a full position in my personal account. I was thinking about call options, but went with shares since it may be good to hold for a while.

First treatment in 15 years, non-opioid, phase 3 data looks strong. Might be a home run medication.
Pharma should find a way to research medications inside of rehabs.
cyclobenzaprine has always been the pain reliever and muscle relaxer of choice there. Kids have been chewing it, snorting it, etc for years. They probably could have discovered this a long time ago 😂
 
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RU05

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I see TNXP up 15% in extended, fairly muted move given it was down 13% during normal trading hours, and this sounds like the type of news that makes these bio's jump 100% or more.

If it's not crazy monday morning I'll look to pick some up.
 
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MURF87

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Jan 19, 2008
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I think someone in here bought Joby. Will be interested to see if there’s adoption

I have some JOBY stock. The platform is an eVTOL. These tests like the one posted are steps necessary for certification from the FAA. So while people may not think this flight is a big deal because of the distance, it is a requirement for the certification process for the airframe.
And yes, it is like a helicopter, but it can also fly like a fixed wing. The main driver in the concept is that this is an electric VTOL.
 
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T2Kplus20

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TA for BABA looks good:

Alibaba – Recent pattern improvement could help lift BABA

Support- $116, $112, Resistance- $158, $188


Source: Fundstrat, TradingView

Alibaba is being added again to the UPTICKS list following recent stabilization ahead of earnings

Technically I view the recent strength in BABA +0.07% in recent weeks as being a constructive development which makes this attractive following its big setback into early June.

The minor consolidation in BABA +0.07% morphed into a triangle pattern that has just been resolved by structural improvement, representing an upside breakout to this recent pattern.

Volume gave an early hint to a possible breakout following the highest volume session on July 15th since mid-April (34 million shares), coinciding with a sharp upward gap. Its subsequent consolidation in mid-to-late July has now been resolved higher once again following today’s rally to the highest levels since mid-May.

This is quite technically bullish for BABA +0.07% and should help to drive this back to challenge and eventually exceed the prior peak from mid-March at $148.43.

Overall, this positive technical price action in recent days directly coincided with the bullish economic news announced on China’s M1 Money growth levels from last week.

Bottom line, given a good technical likelihood of a further decline in the US Dollar in the weeks to come, I like adding BABA +0.07% back to UPTICKS at its Wednesday 8/13/25 close of $126.86.
 

RUAldo

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Can someone explain how Robinhood’s prediction markets for pro and college football is any different than DraftKings betting?

Also, what’s the functional difference between a stablecoin and a universal digital gift card (use anywhere w/ no fees)? I heard stablecoins were recently dropped to attendees at a conference in Bermuda for use at local gift shops.
 

T2Kplus20

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VKTX....................................LMAO
News on Viking:

Viking Therapeutics Shares Sink After Obesity Pill Data; Truist Says Sell-Off Overdone
MT Newswires
1:09 PM ET Aug-19-2025
01:09 PM EDT, 08/19/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Shares of Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.NaE) tumbled intraday Tuesday after the company released trial data of its investigational obesity pill.

In a mid-stage trial, patients receiving the highest 120-milligram dose of the VK2735 oral treatment demonstrated a reduction of up to 12.2% in body weight after 13 weeks, the company said in a statement. Analysts were expecting Viking's pill to help reduce weight by 10% to 15%, Reuters reported Tuesday.

"Reductions in body weight were progressive at all doses through the course of the study, with no plateau observed for weight loss at 13 weeks," Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.NaE) said.

While the study showed that the pill was "safe and well-tolerated," about 20% of participants receiving VK2735 discontinued the treatment due to an adverse event, compared with 13% among placebo subjects, according to the statement.

"The most common reasons for treatment discontinuation were gastrointestinal-related adverse events," the company said. The overall discontinuation rate was 28% among VK2735 subjects.

Shares of Vikings slumped 42% in Tuesday trade.

Vikings' stock sell-off is "overdone," Truist Securities said in a report.

"We think the sell-off today is an over-reaction on early results intended to guide late stage clinical development," Truist Managing Director Joon Lee wrote in the note. "We're buyers of the weakness today."

Both Eli Lilly (LLY.NaE) and Novo Nordisk (NVO.NaE) , which currently dominate the weight-loss market, are working to develop obesity pills. Lilly makes the Zepbound weight-loss drug, while Novo offers the Wegovy brand.

Earlier this month, Lilly said its investigational weight-loss pill, orforglipron, showed a 12.4% weight loss in a late stage trial that seemed to disappoint investors. Separately, Novo's oral semaglutide in June showed a weight-loss of 15% over 68 weeks, Reuters reported at the time.
 

CatManTrue

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TNXP down 20%. Did something happen or Sell the news?
I’m buying the dip. It’s crashing because they’re not ready to launch until October and they haven’t announced the WAC price yet so forecasts can’t be set.

Tonmya should be the next fibromyalgia blockbuster. It Reminds me of Celgene back when it was smaller. GLTAL
 
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Rutgers Chris

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Can someone explain how Robinhood’s prediction markets for pro and college football is any different than DraftKings betting?

Also, what’s the functional difference between a stablecoin and a universal digital gift card (use anywhere w/ no fees)? I heard stablecoins were recently dropped to attendees at a conference in Bermuda for use at local gift shops.
The RH piece is an interesting one. Since you’re betting against others via buying contracts rather than betting against the house (draftings model), it’s not regulated as gambling. Not sure who came up with it or how it works tbh.

Not sure there is a functional difference between the last two. Who accepts them I guess
 

T2Kplus20

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I’m buying the dip. It’s crashing because they’re not ready to launch until October and they haven’t announced the WAC price yet so forecasts can’t be set.

Tonmya should be the next fibromyalgia blockbuster. It Reminds me of Celgene back when it was smaller. GLTAL
I'll be patient and hold for a while. The product seems solid.

@rurahrah000 - at what level would PLTR be a buy? :)
 

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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I’m buying the dip. It’s crashing because they’re not ready to launch until October and they haven’t announced the WAC price yet so forecasts can’t be set.

Tonmya should be the next fibromyalgia blockbuster. It Reminds me of Celgene back when it was smaller. GLTAL
The 6 month chart still looks all right.