I love Tom Lee because he is thorough. But him saying the PPI report wasn’t problematic because the worst is yet to come inflation-wise isn’t comforting.From Tom Lee and crew:
How PPI Ended Up Not Being a Disaster
It’s safe to say yesterday morning’s wholesale inflation report took us all by surprise. Kinda like summer showers, washing away hopes for jumbo interest-rate cut that some so naively believed they deserved.
The producer-price index rose 0.9% in July from the month before, coming in much hotter than the 0.2% expected by economists. It marked the biggest jump since June 2022. Core PPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, also climbed 0.9% on the month, higher than the 0.3% expected.
Digging deeper, it was worrying to see what pushed up PPI. The biggest jump came from services, which rose 0.945%. It’s not the best piece of news because it means inflation could be moving from goods to the more sticky services prices. The idea is that once you get used to making a certain amount of money for your service, it’s hard for you to lower your rate.
Within that services segment itself, the biggest contributor was trade services, rising 2% from the month before. What is that vague sounding term? It’s the margin mark-up that wholesalers and retailers charge, a concerning sign that tariffs are actually showing up. Last month, the margin they were charging went up the most in machinery and equipment, followed by a bunch of finance-related services like portfolio management.
A few minutes after the open, the S&P 500 fell as much as 0.4%.
But here’s how investors were able to convince themselves this isn’t the worst report ever, leading the broad-based index to finish barely higher, in turn setting a fresh record. Hey, I say a win is a win.
On the totem pole of economic reports, PPI doesn’t rank at the top and it doesn’t help that it’s been way too volatile recently. Investors watch it only because components from the PPI report filter through to the personal-consumption-expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation report.
As everyone is already ultra-aware, the Fed is under insane amounts of pressure from the president to cut rates. So when the report suggests that wholesale inflation is up 3.3% from a year ago, running above the central bank’s 2% target, it really ties their hands.
Well, color us lucky. The PPI numbers going into PCE don’t look all too shabby. Let me explain how. Within PPI, there’s two kinds of data sets: PPI Commodity and PPI Industry. From PPI Commodity, the BLS calculates final demand PPI, which is the headline number I wrote about in the second paragraph.
Meanwhile, in the PPI Industry, both final demand and a bunch of other stuff is included, which can cause the numbers and contributors to differ. This is what is used to create the PCE report.
Yesterday’s report showed that the top three highest-weighted PPI items going into the PCE aren’t related to tariffs. Here’s what they are: Hospitals rose 3.2% from a year ago, physician services rose 1.8%, and portfolio management and investment advice services rose 12.4%.
That means a 25-basis point cut in September is still very much on the table. Hopes for a bigger rate cut were unrealistic anyway.
SS is a ponzi and that's been going on for 90 years now.I love Tom Lee because he is thorough. But him saying the PPI report wasn’t problematic because the worst is yet to come inflation-wise isn’t comforting.
And why doesn’t he realize that MSTR is a Ponzi? Or maybe he knows but he also knows that it’s still an early stage Ponzi and therefore it’s still a good Ponzi.
I love Tom Lee because he is thorough. But him saying the PPI report wasn’t problematic because the worst is yet to come inflation-wise isn’t comforting.From Tom Lee and crew:
How PPI Ended Up Not Being a Disaster
It’s safe to say yesterday morning’s wholesale inflation report took us all by surprise. Kinda like summer showers, washing away hopes for jumbo interest-rate cut that some so naively believed they deserved.
The producer-price index rose 0.9% in July from the month before, coming in much hotter than the 0.2% expected by economists. It marked the biggest jump since June 2022. Core PPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, also climbed 0.9% on the month, higher than the 0.3% expected.
Digging deeper, it was worrying to see what pushed up PPI. The biggest jump came from services, which rose 0.945%. It’s not the best piece of news because it means inflation could be moving from goods to the more sticky services prices. The idea is that once you get used to making a certain amount of money for your service, it’s hard for you to lower your rate.
Within that services segment itself, the biggest contributor was trade services, rising 2% from the month before. What is that vague sounding term? It’s the margin mark-up that wholesalers and retailers charge, a concerning sign that tariffs are actually showing up. Last month, the margin they were charging went up the most in machinery and equipment, followed by a bunch of finance-related services like portfolio management.
A few minutes after the open, the S&P 500 fell as much as 0.4%.
But here’s how investors were able to convince themselves this isn’t the worst report ever, leading the broad-based index to finish barely higher, in turn setting a fresh record. Hey, I say a win is a win.
On the totem pole of economic reports, PPI doesn’t rank at the top and it doesn’t help that it’s been way too volatile recently. Investors watch it only because components from the PPI report filter through to the personal-consumption-expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation report.
As everyone is already ultra-aware, the Fed is under insane amounts of pressure from the president to cut rates. So when the report suggests that wholesale inflation is up 3.3% from a year ago, running above the central bank’s 2% target, it really ties their hands.
Well, color us lucky. The PPI numbers going into PCE don’t look all too shabby. Let me explain how. Within PPI, there’s two kinds of data sets: PPI Commodity and PPI Industry. From PPI Commodity, the BLS calculates final demand PPI, which is the headline number I wrote about in the second paragraph.
Meanwhile, in the PPI Industry, both final demand and a bunch of other stuff is included, which can cause the numbers and contributors to differ. This is what is used to create the PCE report.
Yesterday’s report showed that the top three highest-weighted PPI items going into the PCE aren’t related to tariffs. Here’s what they are: Hospitals rose 3.2% from a year ago, physician services rose 1.8%, and portfolio management and investment advice services rose 12.4%.
That means a 25-basis point cut in September is still very much on the table. Hopes for a bigger rate cut were unrealistic anyway.
Admittedly I don’t follow crypto stuff closely but I did catch an analyst discussing Saylor’s strategy and he mentioned the paying of preferred dividends to shareholders despite Bitcoin holdings not paying interest. Meanwhile, the company’s revenues are basically stagnating or growing very slowly at best.SS is a ponzi and that's been going on for 90 years now.![]()
They will be one of the richest companies in the world or the cause of a black swan event. No in betweenI love Tom Lee because he is thorough. But him saying the PPI report wasn’t problematic because the worst is yet to come inflation-wise isn’t comforting.
And why doesn’t he realize that MSTR is a Ponzi?
Admittedly I don’t follow crypto stuff closely but I did catch an analyst discussing Saylor’s strategy and he mentioned the paying of preferred dividends to shareholders despite Bitcoin holdings not paying interest. Meanwhile, the company’s revenues are basically stagnating or growing very slowly at best.
Saylor is quite the salesman.
I prefer my ponzis to be voluntarySS is a ponzi and that's been going on for 90 years now.![]()
I think its too short term of a double to carry any real significance.Did Palantir "double top" at 186.97 and now trending lower on technical trading?
Imagine all the homeless older folks without SS. I suppose they could be incarcerated for three hots and a cot which would be a boon for the private prison industry.I prefer my ponzis to be voluntary
What? A fwd PE of 1,328,199,378 is too high?I think its too short term of a double to carry any real significance.
But the stock does need to cool off.
Because the company he is the chairman of BMNR will also b a ponzi so might as well ride togetherI love Tom Lee because he is thorough. But him saying the PPI report wasn’t problematic because the worst is yet to come inflation-wise isn’t comforting.
And why doesn’t he realize that MSTR is a Ponzi?
Admittedly I don’t follow crypto stuff closely but I did catch an analyst discussing Saylor’s strategy and he mentioned the paying of preferred dividends to shareholders despite Bitcoin holdings not paying interest. Meanwhile, the company’s revenues are basically stagnating or growing very slowly at best.
Saylor is quite the salesman.
Tonix stock halted on pending news. We shall see very soon!Yes it is on Friday 8/15. It could come early tomorrow, hope it isn’t delayed like Kalvista & Novovax’s recent (eventual) proposals.![]()
This is going to skyrocket once the hold is lifted.Tonix stock halted on pending news. We shall see very soon!
UPDATE (but stock still halted):
Approved!
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP.NaE) , a fully-integrated biotechnology company, today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Tonmya™ (cyclobenzaprine HCl sublingual tablets) for the treatment of fibromyalgia in adults. Tonmya is a first-in-class, non-opioid, once-daily bedtime analgesic with a unique sublingual (under the tongue) formulation that is designed for rapid absorption into the bloodstream. Tonmya is the first new FDA-approved therapy for the treatment of fibromyalgia in over 15 years.
I did buy shares! Not a crazy amount since you never know with the FDA, but enough for a full position in my personal account. I was thinking about call options, but went with shares since it may be good to hold for a while.This is going to skyrocket once the hold is lifted.
hope you bought shares when it sold off this morning! I own quite a few
Agree, hold rather than call optionsI did buy shares! Not a crazy amount since you never know with the FDA, but enough for a full position in my personal account. I was thinking about call options, but went with shares since it may be good to hold for a while.
First treatment in 15 years, non-opioid, phase 3 data looks strong. Might be a home run medication.
Pharma should find a way to research medications inside of rehabs.I did buy shares! Not a crazy amount since you never know with the FDA, but enough for a full position in my personal account. I was thinking about call options, but went with shares since it may be good to hold for a while.
First treatment in 15 years, non-opioid, phase 3 data looks strong. Might be a home run medication.
I think someone in here bought Joby. Will be interested to see if there’s adoption
Lol, one of the Twitter comments said the same thing.I dunno, seems an awful lot like a helicopter.
I think someone in here bought Joby. Will be interested to see if there’s adoption
Jackson Hole?Are we waiting on any news this week?
Markets flat(but in the red) early.
Haven't had time to look yet. Maybe a raise today as well?TNXP down 20%. Did something happen or Sell the news?
I bought TEM last week. Nice day today.Strong double beat for PANW. Stock up 5% in extended.
Nice run for TEM over the past week or two. A lot of these AI application companies are going to be big winners.I bought TEM last week. Nice day today.
We are at all-time highs across the board. It's okay to have a few down days pending Powell on Friday.The correction in the growth stocks is starting
News on Viking:VKTX....................................LMAO
I’m buying the dip. It’s crashing because they’re not ready to launch until October and they haven’t announced the WAC price yet so forecasts can’t be set.TNXP down 20%. Did something happen or Sell the news?
ALT is a much better buy.VKTX....................................LMAO
The RH piece is an interesting one. Since you’re betting against others via buying contracts rather than betting against the house (draftings model), it’s not regulated as gambling. Not sure who came up with it or how it works tbh.Can someone explain how Robinhood’s prediction markets for pro and college football is any different than DraftKings betting?
Also, what’s the functional difference between a stablecoin and a universal digital gift card (use anywhere w/ no fees)? I heard stablecoins were recently dropped to attendees at a conference in Bermuda for use at local gift shops.
I'll be patient and hold for a while. The product seems solid.I’m buying the dip. It’s crashing because they’re not ready to launch until October and they haven’t announced the WAC price yet so forecasts can’t be set.
Tonmya should be the next fibromyalgia blockbuster. It Reminds me of Celgene back when it was smaller. GLTAL
The 6 month chart still looks all right.I’m buying the dip. It’s crashing because they’re not ready to launch until October and they haven’t announced the WAC price yet so forecasts can’t be set.
Tonmya should be the next fibromyalgia blockbuster. It Reminds me of Celgene back when it was smaller. GLTAL