OT: Tracking Winter Storm Fern 1/25-26
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Mt Holly finally lowers
I really like these calls for CJ Philly and those for Monmouth to coast
NJZ008>010-012-015>019-021-PAZ070-071-101>106-250900- /O.EXT.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0700Z-260126T1800Z/ Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester- Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Delaware-Philadelphia- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of New Brunswick, Trenton, Norristown, West Chester, Morrisville, Pennsville, Chalfont, Millville, Camden, Morristown, Flemington, Pottstown, Lansdale, Philadelphia, Perkasie, Collegeville, Mount Holly, Media, Glassboro, Oxford, Honey Brook, Moorestown, Kennett Square, Doylestown, Somerville, and Cherry Hill 157 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 6 and 10 inches and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest, and southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 2 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. The snow will mix with and change to sleet and areas of freezing rain Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0700Z-260126T1200Z/ Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington- Including the cities of Long Beach Island, Sandy Hook, Freehold, Jackson, and Wharton State Forest 157 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow to mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 5 and 7 inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Eastern Monmouth, Western Monmouth, Coastal Ocean, Ocean, and Southeastern Burlington Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour during Sunday morning, then the snow mixes with and changes to sleet and freezing rain then to a period of plain rain Sunday afternoon
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0700Z-260126T1200Z/ Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic- Including the cities of Ocean City, Cape May Court House, Atlantic City, and Hammonton 157 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow to mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 4 and 6 inches and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Cape May, and Coastal Atlantic Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour during Sunday morning, then the snow mixes with and changes to sleet and freezing rain then to a period of plain rain Sunday afternoon and evening.
I really like these calls for CJ Philly and those for Monmouth to coast
NJZ008>010-012-015>019-021-PAZ070-071-101>106-250900- /O.EXT.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0700Z-260126T1800Z/ Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester- Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Delaware-Philadelphia- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of New Brunswick, Trenton, Norristown, West Chester, Morrisville, Pennsville, Chalfont, Millville, Camden, Morristown, Flemington, Pottstown, Lansdale, Philadelphia, Perkasie, Collegeville, Mount Holly, Media, Glassboro, Oxford, Honey Brook, Moorestown, Kennett Square, Doylestown, Somerville, and Cherry Hill 157 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 6 and 10 inches and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest, and southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 2 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. The snow will mix with and change to sleet and areas of freezing rain Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0700Z-260126T1200Z/ Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington- Including the cities of Long Beach Island, Sandy Hook, Freehold, Jackson, and Wharton State Forest 157 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow to mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 5 and 7 inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Eastern Monmouth, Western Monmouth, Coastal Ocean, Ocean, and Southeastern Burlington Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour during Sunday morning, then the snow mixes with and changes to sleet and freezing rain then to a period of plain rain Sunday afternoon
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0700Z-260126T1200Z/ Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic- Including the cities of Ocean City, Cape May Court House, Atlantic City, and Hammonton 157 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow to mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 4 and 6 inches and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Cape May, and Coastal Atlantic Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour during Sunday morning, then the snow mixes with and changes to sleet and freezing rain then to a period of plain rain Sunday afternoon and evening.
Mt Holly disco
. The main change with this update is lowering the snow amounts by about 2-4 inches across the entire area. The NBM snowfall totals have also been trending downward given the guidance showing more of a mix or changeover for many areas. We are still hitting warning criteria for all areas at this point and therefore will maintain the Winter Storm Warnings. The start times of the warning has been delayed by several hours, but left the end times for now which may be to long. Snow ratios will be high to start given the arctic air mass in place, however these will then decrease quite a bit from south to north as the event continues on during Sunday and Sunday night. This will change the consistency of the snow from a dry and fluffy type to a more moist/wet type. In areas that have a mix or change to sleet and/or freezing rain will have an ice layer on top of the snow which will make conditions more difficult. Not a lot of change regarding ice amounts from freezing rain. The amount of freezing rain realized will depend on small temperature changes aloft whether it is sleet or freezing rain. The combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain will result in MAJOR impacts across the region. There is an increasing concern that some are
. The main change with this update is lowering the snow amounts by about 2-4 inches across the entire area. The NBM snowfall totals have also been trending downward given the guidance showing more of a mix or changeover for many areas. We are still hitting warning criteria for all areas at this point and therefore will maintain the Winter Storm Warnings. The start times of the warning has been delayed by several hours, but left the end times for now which may be to long. Snow ratios will be high to start given the arctic air mass in place, however these will then decrease quite a bit from south to north as the event continues on during Sunday and Sunday night. This will change the consistency of the snow from a dry and fluffy type to a more moist/wet type. In areas that have a mix or change to sleet and/or freezing rain will have an ice layer on top of the snow which will make conditions more difficult. Not a lot of change regarding ice amounts from freezing rain. The amount of freezing rain realized will depend on small temperature changes aloft whether it is sleet or freezing rain. The combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain will result in MAJOR impacts across the region. There is an increasing concern that some are
For everywhere but northernmost and NW areas of NJ where its 6-10
@bac2therac
Looking for a time estimate for the change from snow to sleet/rain in southeastern Monmouth.
Looking for a time estimate for the change from snow to sleet/rain in southeastern Monmouth.
GFS terrible at 4-5
UKIE continues to be one of the coldest and snowiest at 9-12 statewide
GEFS was 6-8 central jersey...4 to south, 10 to north
UKIE continues to be one of the coldest and snowiest at 9-12 statewide
GEFS was 6-8 central jersey...4 to south, 10 to north
Starting to cave for the weenies! This is the official storm thread.
This is a good map. Almost my thoughts exactly. I might move the 8-12 line 15 miles up further in Somerset
I like Tomer. BTW, numbers is in line with the latest models and the lower end prediction.
Bac's excerpt from NWS Mount Holly's forecast discussion was cut off above: here's all of it:
The main change with this update is lowering the snow amounts by
about 2-4 inches across the entire area. The NBM snowfall totals
have also been trending downward given the guidance showing more of
a mix or changeover for many areas. We are still hitting warning
criteria for all areas at this point and therefore will maintain the
Winter Storm Warnings. The start times of the warning has been
delayed by several hours, but left the end times for now which may
be to long. Snow ratios will be high to start given the arctic air
mass in place, however these will then decrease quite a bit from
south to north as the event continues on during Sunday and Sunday
night. This will change the consistency of the snow from a dry and
fluffy type to a more moist/wet type. In areas that have a mix or
change to sleet and/or freezing rain will have an ice layer on top
of the snow which will make conditions more difficult. Not a lot of
change regarding ice amounts from freezing rain. The amount of
freezing rain realized will depend on small temperature changes
aloft whether it is sleet or freezing rain. The combination of snow,
sleet and freezing rain will result in MAJOR impacts across the
region. There is an increasing concern that some areas will have a
prolonged period of accumulating sleet.
The precipitation tapers off Sunday evening with some drizzle or
even freezing drizzle possible. Some guidance has hinted at some
light snow occurring again Sunday night into early Monday morning
before ending. This is of lower confidence, but if it were to occur
any additional amounts look to be on the light side. Northeast winds
will be increasing some during Sunday and where the snow remains
drier could lead to some blowing and drifting snow.
The main change with this update is lowering the snow amounts by
about 2-4 inches across the entire area. The NBM snowfall totals
have also been trending downward given the guidance showing more of
a mix or changeover for many areas. We are still hitting warning
criteria for all areas at this point and therefore will maintain the
Winter Storm Warnings. The start times of the warning has been
delayed by several hours, but left the end times for now which may
be to long. Snow ratios will be high to start given the arctic air
mass in place, however these will then decrease quite a bit from
south to north as the event continues on during Sunday and Sunday
night. This will change the consistency of the snow from a dry and
fluffy type to a more moist/wet type. In areas that have a mix or
change to sleet and/or freezing rain will have an ice layer on top
of the snow which will make conditions more difficult. Not a lot of
change regarding ice amounts from freezing rain. The amount of
freezing rain realized will depend on small temperature changes
aloft whether it is sleet or freezing rain. The combination of snow,
sleet and freezing rain will result in MAJOR impacts across the
region. There is an increasing concern that some areas will have a
prolonged period of accumulating sleet.
The precipitation tapers off Sunday evening with some drizzle or
even freezing drizzle possible. Some guidance has hinted at some
light snow occurring again Sunday night into early Monday morning
before ending. This is of lower confidence, but if it were to occur
any additional amounts look to be on the light side. Northeast winds
will be increasing some during Sunday and where the snow remains
drier could lead to some blowing and drifting snow.
Which is all I wanted.Starting to cave for the weenies! This is the official storm thread.
Because of this…
It’s not a vanity thing like it is for some, just better to have this as a stand alone thread.
In this case, wouldn't it be better if the "snow weenies" were proven right? Wouldn't it be better to have 12-18 inches of nothing but snow rather than 6-10 inches of snow followed by freezing rain and sleet -- the latter, it seems to me, is much harder to shovel/plow and much more dangerous to power lines and trees.
So basically a standard, significant winter storm that we have experienced many times in our area over the years. Not historic like the hype lead-up would suggest. We shall overcome.
I'm rooting for the 18z NAM (whatever that is)
This picture makes me uncomfortable
certainly impactful but not deserving of hype...plus its a Sunday. To me the bigger story will be the glacier freeze from Monday night onwards for 2 weeks and the possibility of below freezing all that time and almost no melting. Definitely make your clear paths by late Monday afternoon because that will be your window
Agree - that’s the bigger issue. Not quite like 93 or 94 or whatever it was, but still a pain in the ***.
The point was this is an important enough event to warrant its own thread.
Regardless who is right or wrong.
Absolutely. Like many others, I am unenthusiastic about Numbers' preference to have everything in one thread.
probably not anywhere in the area to at least 3am maybe 5am or later by you
This is the big concern, along with it being so cold that salt may not be very effective.
This is what the weenies were predicting with their wishcasting!