OT: Tracking Winter Storm Fern 1/25-26
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
So maybe it's time for you or @Tango Two to get rid of the other thread or merge.
How about: no.
Man I was in Jackson, Wyoming a while back. Before Uber. We were getting a foot of snow every day like it was nothing. Just used some local car service. All these kids were like 17 or 18 just driving thru that like it was a light drizzle. What a time.
0z nam has mixing in central jersey at 1pm after 4-6 inch thump..maybe 1 to 1.5 sleet...even rain late in day south of 95 towards the coast and south jersey
Figure for football watching.
Shovel before game 1 at 3pm
Repeat between games
Clean up after later game. Go to bed.
Shovel before game 1 at 3pm
Repeat between games
Clean up after later game. Go to bed.
Sounds pretty meh. Once again, I'm not even in the area now. Coming home Tuesday afternoon
I'm actually getting more worried about the impending storm. The NWS's local forecast for my Cherry Hill zip code is now for an inch or two of snow tonight starting at around 4 a.m.; then "sleet, possibly mixed with snow," accumulating 4-8 inches tomorrow; then "rain, freezing rain, and sleet" tomorrow night, changing to all freezing rain after 10 p.m. with an ice accumulation of .1 to .2 inches; and then a 30% chance of a little snow Monday before 10 a.m. We will then have lows in the single digits every night through Friday night so little of that ice will melt. OMG!
Yes. He's helped us with the prior storms. But I'm still nervous. I hope he has a *lot* of calcium chloride!
Them cheering for snow has no impact on the snowfall totals or people driving to work.
You're right -- but it says something about a person's character that he would root for something that causes so much inconvenience and danger to others.
If your are above 10 years old, you shoukf never cheer for a big storm.
Shoot even NYC has virtual school Monday. As a kid in the 80s we had the excitement of a snow day.
It’s dangerous for everyone and you get folks rooting for more snow. It’s disgusting
The NWS in Mount Holly has just released what it says will be its last briefing. It has slightly increased its projected snow amounts. It sees 12-18 inches for (basically) Morristown on north; 6 to 8 for southeastern New Jersey from roughly Atlantic City south along the shore and cutting southwest to take in almost all of Cumberland county (including Vineland); and 8 to 12 for everywhere else in Jersey.
For Philly, it sees a 75% chance of 6 inches or more; a 42% chance of 8 inches or more; and a 16% chance of more than a foot.
All of the amounts above include sleet.
Ice is forecast for the state south of (very roughly ) Morristown. This will be less than 0.1" except for up to 0.25" for the Jersey portions of the Philly metro area stretching south along the Delaware and taking in Salem County, and a narrow band stretching northeast as far as around Long Branch on the shore.
The NWS has even more confidence than before that the storm will be followed by bitter cold.
https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
For Philly, it sees a 75% chance of 6 inches or more; a 42% chance of 8 inches or more; and a 16% chance of more than a foot.
All of the amounts above include sleet.
Ice is forecast for the state south of (very roughly ) Morristown. This will be less than 0.1" except for up to 0.25" for the Jersey portions of the Philly metro area stretching south along the Delaware and taking in Salem County, and a narrow band stretching northeast as far as around Long Branch on the shore.
The NWS has even more confidence than before that the storm will be followed by bitter cold.
https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
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I just went out to my front porch here in Cherry Hill - it is definitely snowing, and there is probably an inch or two on the ground. We'll see when the changeover to sleet occurs -- the latter the better, so far as I'm concerned!
Went out and fed animals this morning at 6:45 pleasantly surprised at maybe 2" of fluff. Easy to brush off. I have no problem with snow, I have a front loader, snowblower and the archaic snow shovels.
My problem has always been, WTF do I do with ice? I can't use salt because of the animals. I had to really prep for this one. Because it's not the snow, but Ice that brings down trees and power lines. Brought up a cord to the house. I also got 110 gallons of water and generators all gassed up (tank heaters) so I can keep my animals watered.
I really have no choice but to do all this sh*t, as getting caught with my pants down isn't really an option. So, I'll clear all the snow around 12pm-1pm and hope for the best.
My problem has always been, WTF do I do with ice? I can't use salt because of the animals. I had to really prep for this one. Because it's not the snow, but Ice that brings down trees and power lines. Brought up a cord to the house. I also got 110 gallons of water and generators all gassed up (tank heaters) so I can keep my animals watered.
I really have no choice but to do all this sh*t, as getting caught with my pants down isn't really an option. So, I'll clear all the snow around 12pm-1pm and hope for the best.
still on track with my call for 7-11 Central Jersey
10-15 to north
6-9 Monmouth/Ocean but may be near the higher end
I like about 8.5 here in Belle Mead before sleet mixes in
there certainly remains a shot to overperform and kiss 12 inches if the changeover is delayed or denied.
Currently 2.5 fine pixie dust on the ground...ratios are fairly high and the HRRR kuchera is winning out now over Nam
12 NAM has sleet reaching Central Jersey by 1pm...the Hrrr at 2pm
reports from DC area indicating their snowfall amounts are below advertised at this time and the mix line is more in line with the warmer models like the NAM so we will keep an eye on that if it means anything
10-15 to north
6-9 Monmouth/Ocean but may be near the higher end
I like about 8.5 here in Belle Mead before sleet mixes in
there certainly remains a shot to overperform and kiss 12 inches if the changeover is delayed or denied.
Currently 2.5 fine pixie dust on the ground...ratios are fairly high and the HRRR kuchera is winning out now over Nam
12 NAM has sleet reaching Central Jersey by 1pm...the Hrrr at 2pm
reports from DC area indicating their snowfall amounts are below advertised at this time and the mix line is more in line with the warmer models like the NAM so we will keep an eye on that if it means anything
Change over should happen around noon'ish? Our pet sitter stopped by around 6:30am to take care of the kitty.
Zarrow stood out during the past week as the most sensible and non-clickbait pro. Level-headed and reasonable.Dan Zarrow
The main show is from now to about 1 PM with 1-2 inch an hour rates so if you are in central jersey whatever you have now tack on at least 4 inches
Yes - usually already book it by now, but waiting for my daughter's bball schedule to come out
sleet mix line approaching Atlantic City....this is a bit quicker than anticipated
Oh so there’s still a chance that there will be less or no sleet/freezing rain on top of the snow in CNJ?
COD-NEXLAB : Dual-Pol Radar for DIX
Dual-Pol NEXRAD Data for provided by College of DuPage Meteorology (NEXLAB)
weather.cod.edu
no it looks like its ooming...the ratios are high...15-20-1 so the initial thump may be overperforming a bit with snow totals before the sleet moves in. Its all about tracking that line now...nam has it entering cj about 1pm, hrr has it 2pm. Its currently pushing into AC ahead of any modelling
good plan..its fluffy now so if you can get 6 inches or so off its alot easier and then 3-4 inches more may fall and then the sleet on top of that....sleet on top of pavement itself is very hard to move so you might want to leave a bit of snow on the bottom as a cushion