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OT: Tracking Winter Storm Fern 1/25-26

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rutgersguy2

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JL23 said:
I'm assuming the move is to start shoveling before the ice starts then sometime in between game 1 / game 2 of NFL, then after?
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From an effort standpoint the snow would be lighter to manage but from a removal standpoint I’d want some snow under the ice/sleet.

I’m waiting til it’s over for the most part but if you’re going to do it in stages I’d think maybe remove some of the light snow but leave enough time for another accumulation of light snow before the changeover to sleet/freezinf rain.

Sleet and ice on its own can be a big pain to remove on its own if at all. Ice melter may or may not work too. Just my 2 cents.
 
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rutgersguy2

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bac2therac said:
good plan..its fluffy now so if you can get 6 inches or so off its alot easier and then 3-4 inches more may fall and then the sleet on top of that....sleet on top of pavement itself is very hard to move so you might want to leave a bit of snow on the bottom as a cushion
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Exactly what I was thinking about the cushion under the sleet/ice.
 
J

JL23

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Oct 4, 2005
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rutgersguy2 said:
From an effort standpoint the snow would be lighter to manage but from a removal standpoint I’d want some snow under the ice/sleet.

I’m waiting til it’s over for the most part but if you’re going to do it in stages I’d think maybe remove some of the light snow but leave enough time for another accumulation of light snow before the changeover to sleet/freezinf rain.

Sleet and ice on its own can be a big pain to remove on its own if at all. Ice melter may or may not work too. Just my 2 cents.
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Yeah that's a good point, maybe try to time it with an initial shoveling done an hour or 2 before the sleet/ice, then do it again after the games
 
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JL23

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Oct 4, 2005
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bac2therac said:
good plan..its fluffy now so if you can get 6 inches or so off its alot easier and then 3-4 inches more may fall and then the sleet on top of that....sleet on top of pavement itself is very hard to move so you might want to leave a bit of snow on the bottom as a cushion
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Very good point - ice/sleet coming into Monmouth County around 1 ish? Or earlier b/c it's in AC now?
 
Postman_1

Postman_1

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bac2therac said:
good plan..its fluffy now so if you can get 6 inches or so off its alot easier and then 3-4 inches more may fall and then the sleet on top of that....sleet on top of pavement itself is very hard to move so you might want to leave a bit of snow on the bottom as a cushion
Click to expand...
I heard both to shovel before the sleet as it will be easier but then I saw too wait for the sleet to finish because just the sleet alone on the pavement will make it hard to shovel later. Either way its gotta get done. Depending on how big the break in weather is when I will do it.
 
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koleszar

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Jan 1, 2010
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JL23 said:
Yes - usually already book it by now, but waiting for my daughter's bball schedule to come out
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As soon as you said, "North Howell" I had a good idea who it was, you're in Farmingdale. We had a conversation about Naples before. Didn't you have another handle on the old board?
 
Knight Shift

Knight Shift

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bac2therac said:
still on track with my call for 7-11 Central Jersey

10-15 to north

6-9 Monmouth/Ocean but may be near the higher end

I like about 8.5 here in Belle Mead before sleet mixes in

there certainly remains a shot to overperform and kiss 12 inches if the changeover is delayed or denied.

Currently 2.5 fine pixie dust on the ground...ratios are fairly high and the HRRR kuchera is winning out now over Nam

12 NAM has sleet reaching Central Jersey by 1pm...the Hrrr at 2pm

reports from DC area indicating their snowfall amounts are below advertised at this time and the mix line is more in line with the warmer models like the NAM so we will keep an eye on that if it means anything
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So. . . . . maybe he was right?
 
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JL23

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koleszar said:
As soon as you said, "North Howell" I had a good idea who it was, you're in Farmingdale. We had a conversation about Naples before. Didn't you have another handle on the old board?
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Not in Farmingdale but very close, love that town
It's what America is all about - small town, mom and pop shops, banners of war heroes on Main Street and the best Memorial Day parade ever

Yes I was JayDogSmooth on the old board, but during the transition, it was akin to requesting a kidney to keep the name (multiple emails, etc.) so I just did a new name that AI somehow generated for me
 
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bac2therac

bac2therac

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progress has been slowed a bit

 
L

Loyal_2RU

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Aug 6, 2001
15,138
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bac2therac said:
good plan..its fluffy now so if you can get 6 inches or so off its alot easier and then 3-4 inches more may fall and then the sleet on top of that....sleet on top of pavement itself is very hard to move so you might want to leave a bit of snow on the bottom as a cushion
Click to expand...
Tried brining with Arctic Armor for the first time. I need to leave my bottom layer on until the end. Fortunately my snow thrower has a kick plate to elevate clearance by a couple of inches.
 
Knight Shift

Knight Shift

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JL23 said:
Not in Farmingdale but very close, love that town
It's what America is all about - small town, mom and pop shops, banners of war heroes on Main Street and the best Memorial Day parade ever

Yes I was JayDogSmooth on the old board, but during the transition, it was akin to requesting a kidney to keep the name (multiple emails, etc.) so I just did a new name that AI somehow generated for me
Click to expand...
Good move.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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Jul 30, 2001
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some early totals

10:15 am EST - 1/25/2026Berwyn, PA6.5
10:00 am EST - 1/25/2026Whitehouse Station, NJ6
10:05 am EST - 1/25/2026Norristown, PA5.9
10:05 am EST - 1/25/2026Salisbury Twp, PA5.6
10:00 am EST - 1/25/2026Martins Creek, PA5.2
09:29 am EST - 1/25/2026Burlington, NJ5
10:08 am EST - 1/25/2026Mendham, NJ4.6
10:30 am EST - 1/25/2026Fort Dix, NJ4.5
09:50 am EST - 1/25/2026Hackettstown, NJ4.5
09:25 am EST - 1/25/2026King of Prussia, PA4.4
09:40 am EST - 1/25/20261 S River Edge, NJ4.3
09:00 am EST - 1/25/20261 W North Caldwell, NJ4.3
10:00 am EST - 1/25/2026Willow Grove, PA4.3
10:32 am EST - 1/25/20262 NW Woodlawn, NY4.2
09:00 am EST - 1/25/2026Nazareth, PA4.1
09:40 am EST - 1/25/2026Northeast Philadelphia, PA4
09:45 am EST - 1/25/2026Howell, NJ4
10:32 am EST - 1/25/2026Harrison, NJ4
09:00 am EST - 1/25/2026Eagleville, PA3.8
09:30 am EST - 1/25/2026Lebanon, NJ3.5

09:10 am EST - 1/25/20261 S Somerville, NJ3.5
08:40 am EST - 1/25/2026East Norriton, PA3.5
09:20 am EST - 1/25/2026Edison, NJ3.2
08:30 am EST - 1/25/2026East Brunswick, NJ3
08:30 am EST - 1/25/20261 SE South River, NJ3
09:00 am EST - 1/25/2026Palisades Park, NJ3
09:05 am EST - 1/25/2026NYC/La Guardia, NY3
09:50 am EST - 1/25/20261 NE Ridgefield, NJ3
08:58 am EST - 1/25/20261 NW Newark, NJ3
09:51 am EST - 1/25/2026Newark Airport, NJ3
08:00 am EST - 1/25/2026Stanton, NJ3
09:32 am EST - 1/25/20261 SW Westfield, NJ3
09:31 am EST - 1/25/20261 NNW Cranford, NJ3
08:40 am EST - 1/25/2026Montville, NJ3
09:17 am EST - 1/25/2026Williams Twp, NJ3
08:00 am EST - 1/25/2026Chalfont, PA2.9
08:58 am EST - 1/25/20261 W Verona, NJ2.6
08:00 am EST - 1/25/2026Fox Chase, PA2.5
09:00 am EST - 1/25/2026Battery Park, NY2.5
09:00 am EST - 1/25/20261 W North Arlington, NJ2.5
 
Postman_1

Postman_1

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Snowing pretty good in Hamilton. Lots of drifts and wind so hard to tell how much we got so far. Haven't been out yet. Looks around 4" IMO

Seeing some posters on AmericanWx saying sleet line is slower moving north then expected
 
Bagarocks

Bagarocks

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Jun 25, 2006
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6" in the Driveway at 11am here in Sparta Franklin area.
I guess 12' or more is coming with this one. Finally Winter is here 07 degrees.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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Jul 30, 2001
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Postman_1 said:
Snowing pretty good in Hamilton. Lots of drifts and wind so hard to tell how much we got so far. Haven't been out yet. Looks around 4" IMO

Seeing some posters on AmericanWx saying sleet line is slower moving north then expected
Click to expand...

sleet line was ahead of schedule for a couple hours but its been stuck in AC and in SE pa. The latest HRRR has it moving into SE Jersey by 1 and moving through Trenton by 2 and then pushing north....however it does not push as far north as anticipated through newark and nyc and north jersey until after 4..in fact the most northern parts of NJ never get the sleet and stay all snow so those places should pile up 12-16

here is the latest hrrr at 2pm

 
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bac2therac

bac2therac

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ratios are very high....almost 20-1 which means even with .3 precip falling its giving 6 inches in spots

those ratios will tend to drop as we go through the afternoon but another .6-7 before a changeover and you see the potential for 12 inches in spots and maybe 18 way up northwest NJ
 
G

GeoRingoes

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Measured 7" on the driveway in Ringoes. Snowing very heavily now. Based on the last map posted, guess I should snow blow the "Pee Loop" for the dog now.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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T2Kplus20 said:
So mix and sleet is most of NJ already? Wow.
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will be moving into sw jersey noon and hitting our area 2-3pm....so we have about 3 more hours of heavy snow that will drop 3-5 more inches so going to be 8-11 here likely as long as we flip
 
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bac2therac

bac2therac

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RUTGERS95 said:
after that sleet band, looks like more snow?
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its likely to stay sleet...hrrr has some pushback after it gets to nyc and newark...by late in the day the heavy stuff is over anyhow...any lingering sleet or snow overnight isnt all that a big deal
 
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