New faces in new places: Setting 2023 expectations for all 11 Power 5 coaches in Year 1
While the 2022-23 head coaching carousel didn’t spin as wildly as the Magic Teacup ride that was the 2021-22 cycle, there are still 11 Power 5 coaches starting Year 1 this fall.
Some big names are taking over big jobs this season, with Deion Sanders looking to bring Colorado back from the dead, Matt Rhule aiming to return Nebraska to relevancy and both Luke Fickell at Wisconsin and Huge Freeze at Auburn aiming to rebuild championship contenders at new spots.
But expectations aren’t the same for every new face in a new place in 2023.
The bones are there for Fickell and Freeze, but that’s not the case for Kenny Dillingham at Arizona State or Troy Taylor at Stanford.
So what are reasonable expectations for the 11 Power 5 coaches in 2023? Let’s take a look:
Kenny Dillingham, Arizona State
The Sun Devils’ future looks bright under Dillingham, but similarly to a pair of other Pac-12 programs this fall, ASU essentially faces a Year 0 in Tempe. Coming off the failed Herm Edwards tenure and looming NCAA sanctions, Dillingham, just 33, stripped his alma mater down to the studs. There are close to 50 new players on the roster, and with transfer quarterback Drew Pyne injured for much of fall camp, Dillingham is reportedly leaning on starting freshman Jaden Rashada. Even with all the transfer defensive additions, a stark turnaround (6.01 yards per play allowed, 31.2 points per game) seems overly optimistic.
While the schedule isn’t overly foreboding compared to some of their Pac-12 brethren, Arizona State’s win total sits at 4.5 for a reason. Dillingham is the youngest head coach in the FBS, and he’s already brought renewed energy to the Valley. Getting Rashada valuable reps and even flirting with a bowl game would be a major boon for a program looking toward the future.
Hugh Freeze, Auburn
Perhaps the easiest expectation to handicap for both the now (make a bowl game in 2023) and the future (compete for the College Football Playoff/win the SEC) of any first-year head coach on this list.
Freeze arrived on the Plains and quickly retooled the roster, as Auburn is likely to start at least 11 transfers (including recently named QB1 Payton Thorne) in Week 1. Recruiting is booming and optimism is high, especially for a program a year removed from the embarrassing Bryan Harsin saga. Auburn’s schedule is always difficult, but anything short of 6-7 wins would be a major letdown in Freeze’s first year.
Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati
Satterfield made the move up Interstate 71 this offseason, restarting his clock at Cincy after four seasons in Louisville. He takes over a program making the jump to the Big 12 after emerging as the king of the Group of 5 under Luke Fickell. The Bearcats’ roster isn’t bereft of talent, but it’s not the same looking team with a dozen future NFL Draft picks that made the College Football Playoff just two years ago, either. They should continue to play good defense, even under a new staff, but Satterfield has his work cut out for him to produce a serviceable offense with former Florida and Arizona State quarterback Emory Jones running the show.
Considering how Cincy is viewed both locally and by casual college football fans across the country, Satterfield needs to avoid a disastrous transition season — both the program moving to the Big 12 and he himself opting to leave one team to another simply for a fresh start.
Deion Sanders, Colorado
I’ve written plenty about Sanders’ chances for success in 2023. He’s talked a big game all offseason, generating buzz in Boulder ever since he surprisingly took the job and immediately announced, “I’m coming … I’m bringing my luggage with me. And it’s Louis. I’m coming.”
But Coach Prime’s bluster can’t mask a roster that still faces all sorts of uncertainty. The roster is in much better shape than it was a year ago when Colorado went 1-11. Still, the team was cobbled together at the 11th hour. They essentially punted on spring practice. We don’t know how quarterback Shedeur Sanders will perform making the jump from FCS to the Power 5. The schedule is grueling. So while Sanders faces heightened pressure because he’s shed such a spotlight on a once-moribund program, if Coach Prime even has the Buffs winning more than four games this fall, he’ll be more than walking the walk in Year 1.
Brent Key, Georgia Tech
Key was the lone 2022 interim head coach to earn a promotion to the full-time job after going 4-4 upon taking over for Geoff Collins. The Yellow Jackets should have a better roster this year, and the coaching staff (especially with upgrades at OC and on the defensive side of the ball) should be much better, too. But the schedule is brutal (Top 25 opponents Ole Miss, UNC, Clemson and Georgia), and even after the team’s second preseason scrimmage in fall camp, Key still hasn’t narrowed Tech’s quarterback competition between Zach Pyron, Haynes King and Zach Gibson.
Key has done a notable job off the field of reestablishing connections with high school coaches in the Peach State, and that momentum must continue no matter what happens between the lines this fall. Replicating last season’s 5-7 year would be a solid start for Key as the head coach of his alma mater.
Jeff Brohm, Louisville
Every first-year head coach on this list wishes they had Brohm’s setup in 2023: A nice roster, a host of impact transfers and an extremely favorable schedule. The Cardinals weren’t a bad team under Scott Satterfield, but they never played to their ceiling either. Conversely, Brohm built up Purdue and just took the Boilermakers to the Big Ten Championship game last season.
Back at his alma mater, the beloved son brought in Cal transfer Jack Plummer to start at quarterback, and he filled some defensive holes with transfers from Stanford, Georgia, North Carolina and elsewhere. Louisville may not be a true nine-win team, but with no FSU, Clemson or North Carolina on the schedule (all preseason Top 25 teams) and just three true road games, Brohm is well-aware he must take advantage of a potential leap year for the program this fall.
Zach Arnett, Mississippi State
The Bulldogs’ first-year head coach may face the more difficult expectations to handicap of any new face this fall. Arnett is widely considered a rising star in the industry, but he received his first crack at becoming a head coach only due to the unfortunate death of Mike Leach last December.
Arnett inherited a team that returns a zillion super-seniors and won nine games in 2022. Mississippi State has a very favorable schedule this fall (eight home games and no Georgia or Tennessee from the SEC East), which only increases fan expectations. Considering Arnett wasn’t hired by his new boss MSU AD Zac Selmon, and he made the notable decision to immediately deviate from Leach’s ‘Air Raid’ identity and hire App. State OC Kevin Barbary, he needs to get off to a fast start in Year 1 or else risk seeing the Bulldogs opt to undergo a true coaching search this December.
Matt Rhule, Nebraska
Unlike his first two collegiate head coaching jobs, Rhule isn’t looking to punt on Year 1 at Nebraska. While not quite an add water, instant results situation, the former Carolina Panthers coach isn’t starting from scratch as he did at Temple or Baylor. The Cornhuskers have a decent foundation with immense fan and administration support.
In the macro, Rhule is charged with returning Nebraska back to national relevancy, but simply ending the storied program’s embarrassing bowl-less streak (zero postseason appearances since 2016) would be a monumental start in 2023. The roster is improved with notable transfer additions on both sides of the ball, highlighted by athletic quarterback Jeff Sims, and the Cornhuskers are a team that 22 games by a single score under former head coach Scott Frost. Simply having competency on the sidelines could go a long way in Lincoln this fall.
Ryan Walters, Purdue
The Boilermakers opted to change course from the program’s historic offensive identity, tabbing Illinois’ defensive coordinator as Jeff Brohm’s replacement. Walters, just 37, hired Graham Harrell to take control of Purdue’s offense, and he brought in former Texas quarterback Hudson Card to be a bridge transfer at the position while he recruits for the future. Despite taking over a team that played for the Big Ten Championship just last season, expectations are rather low in West Lafayette — and with good reason. Purdue is undergoing a stark transition. It would’ve been a rebuilding year even for Brohm. Card isn’t Aidan O’Connell, who is flashing during the NFL preseason for the Las Vegas Raiders. The Big Ten’s receiver Charlie Jones (both in receptions and yards) is now in the NFL, too. Walters’ roster was also raided in the portal at OL, DL and the secondary.
He’s a first-time head coach who comes with plenty of promise and upside, but it’s going to be a bumpy ride in Year 1, especially with a scheduling God’s doing Walters little favors (three toss-up non-conference games against Fresno State, Va. Tech and Syracuse plus drawing Ohio State and Michigan from the East).
Troy Taylor, Stanford
The Cardinal are in a similar situation to Arizona State and Colorado with Year 1 coaches, only unlike their two (current) Pac-12 counterparts, they’re still operating like it’s 2013 and not 2023. Taylor’s rebuild looks much different because Stanford doesn’t (or won’t) really utilize the transfer portal, but that door has very much swung the other way, as the roster was raided by Power 5 programs across the country this offseason. Taylor will field a team with fewer than 70 scholarship players — including just two returning starters on offense.
He was a fantastic head coach at Sacramento State (30-8 with three Big Sky Championships) and was the brainchild of a high-octane, up-tempo offense that finished No. 4 in the FCS last season (43 points per game). Generate some excitement offensively for a unit that averaged just 21.2 points per and pull-off an upset over a rival (be it Cal, Notre Dame or UCLA) would provide some hope in Year 1 for a program facing an uncertain future.
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
Of all the new faces in new places in 2023, Fickell is both the most accomplished head coach and has the best team. The Badgers rank No. 3 in the Big Ten in returning production — and notably tops in the Big Ten West. Fickell brought in a host of impact transfers, is modernizing Wisconsin’s offense with Phil Longo and the ‘Dairy Raid’ and has a Year 1 schedule with no Penn State or Michigan. With Fickell now at head coach, the Badgers have championship expectations — not simply winning the conference but making the expanded College Football Playoff regularly. They’re the media’s preseason pick to win the Big Ten West in the final year of divisions, and that seems fair.
Braelon Allen is awesome, the OL should still be solid and the defense projects to be among the Top 5 units in the league again in 2023. The offensive changes may need some time to marinate, but anything short of 9-10 wins would be considered a disappointment.