2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections feature 1-seed chaos

The weekend slate of college basketball set up big changes throughout the bracketology field, from the top seed-lines to the bubble conversation. Duke and UConn took losses, opening the door for new 1-seed contenders, while bubble teams looked to hold off challengers hoping to join the mix.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the top teams dominate headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Iowa State
Last four byes: Wisconsin, UCF, UCLA, Ohio State
Last four in: USC, Miami, Texas, SDSU
First four out: New Mexico, VCU, Baylor, Missouri

First Four (Dayton)

16 Bethune Cookman (SWAC) vs. 16 Morgan State (MEAC)
16 LIU (NEC) vs. 16 NJIT (AEC)
11 USC vs. 11 Miami
11 Texas vs. 11 SDSU

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 Bethune Cookman/Morgan State
8 Auburn vs. 9 Indiana
Portland
5 North Carolina vs. 12 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
4 Gonzaga vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Oklahoma City
6 St. Louis (A10) vs. 11 Ohio State
3 Kansas vs. 14 North Dakota State (Summit)
Philadelphia
7 Kentucky vs. 10 Santa Clara (WCC)
2 Nebraska vs. 15 Charleston (CAA)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona continues to hold onto the top overall seed in bracketology, moving to 23-0 over the weekend with a dominant win over Oklahoma State. The Wildcats now face a major challenge on the road against Kansas.

2-seed Nebraska

Nebraska holds onto the final 2-seed spot after a convincing win against Rutgers helped them rebound from a two-game losing streak. The Cornhuskers will face a big test against Purdue next, the top team on the 3-seed line looking to overthrow them.

South (Houston)

St. Louis
1 Iowa State vs. 16 Merrimack (MAAC)
8 Utah State vs. 9 SMU
Tampa
5 St. John’s vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 Winthrop (Big South)
Buffalo
6 BYU vs. 11 USC/Miami
3 Michigan State vs. 14 ETSU (SoCon)
Oklahoma City
7 Arkansas vs. 10 UCLA
2 Houston vs. 15 UT Martin (OVC)

1-seed Iowa State

Iowa State takes advantage of the chaos around them, picking up a win while two 1-seed teams and top 2-seed Illinois take losses over the weekend. Iowa State picked up a win over Baylor, and now sees TCU on the schedule.

2-seed Houston

Houston holds onto its 2-seed position with a big win over BYU added to the resume. The Cougars continue their path through the Big 12 with a matchup against Utah, a must-win to keep them in position with the teams in reach of a 1-seed jump.

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 LIU/NJIT
8 St. Mary’s vs. 9 Texas A&M
San Diego
5 Tennessee vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Virginia vs. 13 UC Irvine (Big West)
Tampa
6 Iowa vs. 11 Tulsa (American)
3 Florida (SEC) vs. 14 Austin Peay (ASUN)
Philadelphia
7 Clemson vs. 10 UCF
2 Illinois vs. 15 Wright State (Horizon)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan continues to chase down Arizona, looking to reclaim the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after beating Penn State. The Wolverines will face Ohio State and Northwestern before the next update, continuing their run through Big Ten play.

2-seed Illinois

Illinois missed out on a chance to climb to the No. 3 overall seed on the 1-line, losing to Michigan State on Saturday. The set up the Fighting Illini to remain stagnant on the 2-seed line ahead of their matchup against Wisconsin.

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Harvard (Ivy)
8 Villanova vs. 9 Georgia
Portland
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 Miami (OH) (MAC)
4 Alabama vs. 13 Troy (SBC)
Greenville
6 Louisville vs. 11 Texas/SDSU
3 Purdue vs. 14 Portland State (Big Sky)
Buffalo
7 NC State vs. 10 Wisconsin
2 UConn (Big East) vs. 15 Navy (Patriot)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains on the 1-seed line despite taking a loss against North Carolina, as much due to the losses by UConn and Illinois than anything else. The Blue Devils now look to regain footing against Pittsburgh in ACC play.

2-seed UConn

UConn falls onto the 2-seed line, losing its spot as the fourth and final 1-seed contender after a loss against St. John’s. The Huskies now look to rebound and get back into contention for the top seed-line against Butler.