AP Poll Prediction: Projecting Top 25 ranking after Week 11 of college football

The final third of the season is beginning to wind down, giving us the last few opportunities for the College Football Playoff picture to shake up before the season’s end. The top 25 at this point is a pretty solid indicator of where you stand.

Saturday’s slate didn’t feature a ton of ranked-on-ranked matchups outside of the showdown between BYU and Texas Tech. Still, there was enough action that there will be some shakeups in the polls this week.

There was a lot to digest. Today, On3 stops to break down some of the changes anticipated in this week’s AP Top 25. Let’s dig into our projections for the new edition of the top college football poll below.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0)

RESULT: 34-10 win at Purdue
After a slow start to the game, Ohio State poured on 24 points in the second quarter to take full command on the road at Purdue. Quarterback Julian Sayin threw only six incompletions, though one was an interception, en route to a 303-yard, one-touchdown outing.

Ohio State continues to cruise, and nothing about the next two weeks should offer much in the way of a real test. The next two are against UCLA and Rutgers at home before the regular-season finale at Michigan.

2. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0)

RESULT: 27-24 win at Penn State
Indiana was pushed to the absolute brink on the road at Penn State. But when it needed its biggest stars in a big way, Fernando Mendoza and Omar Cooper Jr. were there to answer the bell. Cooper’s insane, toe-tapping touchdown catch with 36 seconds to go helped push Indiana in front for good.

Like Ohio State, the next two really shouldn’t be much of an issue. Indiana faces Wisconsin at home then travels to Purdue, looking to cap a perfect regular season before a likely trip to the Big Ten Championship Game.

3. Texas A&M Aggies (9-0)

RESULT: 38-17 win at Missouri
Texas A&M made sure it was ready to play from jump against a Missouri team that had to break in a backup quarterback. Matt Zollers was kept off rhythm all day long in the Aggies’ win. He finished 7-of-22 passing for 77 yards, and he failed to find the end zone for the Tigers.

For Texas A&M, it’s another win against a ranked opponent. There’s only one top 25 team left and it doesn’t come until the season finale at Texas. Now it’s just about taking care of business against overmatched South Carolina and Samford squads first.

4. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1)

RESULT: 20-9 win vs. LSU
Alabama had a tougher go of things offensively than many might have expected against LSU. The Tigers pressured quarterback Ty Simpson quite a bit, but he was more than up to the challenge. He turned in another excellent outing, finishing with 277 passing yards and a touchdown in the win.

Alabama has a tricky next game. It takes on Oklahoma at home, but the Sooners will be coming off a bye week. That could be a significant factor. Take care of that and only the regular season finale against Auburn should stand in the way of a playoff berth.

5. Georgia Bulldogs (8-1)

RESULT: 41-21 win at Mississippi State
It was a close game for a quarter. In fact, the Bulldogs from Starkville actually led through the first frame. Then the Bulldogs from Athens scored 21 unanswered in the second quarter to take charge.

Quarterback Gunner Stockton put together another excellent afternoon. He threw for 264 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, while also adding 31 rushing yards. Next up is a home date with a tough Texas team.

6. Oregon Ducks (8-1)

RESULT: 18-16 win at Iowa
In a sloppy, rainy game, both teams found it difficult to come by quality offense. But Dante Moore was on point when he needed to be late on the final drive to put the team into game-winning field goal position. And Oregon survived.

There are still a couple top 25 opponents left on the schedule, but this might have been the biggest trap spot. Up next is a home date against Minnesota before games against ranked USC and Washington squads to close out the year.

7. Ole Miss Rebels (9-1)

RESULT: 49-0 win vs. The Citadel
It was smooth sailing from jump for the Rebels, who raced out to a 35-0 halftime lead and then coasted from there. Starting quarterback Trinidad Chambliss threw for 333 yards and three touchdowns.

In fact, the game was lopsided enough that one-time starter Austin Simmons was able to get back into the mix. He threw for 100 yards on 7-of-12 passing, though he was picked off once. Regardless, having options at the position again is a big deal for Ole Miss. Next up is a home date with Florida, with all of the top 25 opponents well in the rearview mirror.

8. Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-1)

RESULT: 29-7 win vs. BYU
With ESPN’s College GameDay in town and all eyes on the Red Raiders, they showed up and delivered in a big way. The defense pitched a shutout into the fourth quarter before finally cracking, but the game was well in hand by that point.

It was a well-balanced win for Texas Tech, which threw for 219 yards and ran for 149 in the win. Quarterback Behren Morton appears to be settling back in nicely, which is a big deal for the program going forward. Now it’s just about taking care of business. There are no top 25 opponents left on the regular-season slate.

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2)

RESULT: 49-10 win vs. Navy
It took a little time, but eventually the floodgates burst open for Notre Dame in a game against Navy. And with enough cushion on the scoreboard, the style of football Navy plays didn’t really have a chance to keep it a close game.

CJ Carr was once again really sharp for the Fighting Irish, while Jeremiyah Love turned in another multi-touchdown outing. For Notre Dame, now it’s a top 25 showdown with Pittsburgh that’s on tap. That’ll be a road game and should be the toughest remaining test.

10. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2)

RESULT: BYE
Oklahoma was off this week after securing a major win over Tennessee on the road. That win was huge; it kept Oklahoma alive in the College Football Playoff picture while also adding some serious oomph to the resume. It has the Sooners in striking range now.

Now, Oklahoma still has to take care of business. And there are multiple top 25 opponents remaining. First up is a huge road trip to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama. Then games against Missouri and LSU remain.

Rest of the AP Top 25 Projections

11. Texas Longhorns (7-2)
12. BYU Cougars (8-1)
13. Vanderbilt Commodores (8-2)
14. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-1)
15. Utah Utes (7-2)
16. Miami Hurricanes (7-2)
17. USC Trojans (7-2)
18. Michigan Wolverines (7-2)
19. Virginia Cavaliers (8-2)
20. Louisville Cardinals (7-2)
21. Tennessee Volunteers (6-3)
22. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2)
23. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2)
24. James Madison Dukes (8-1)
25. North Texas Mean Green (8-1)