AP Poll Prediction: Projecting Top 25 ranking after Week 12 of college football

The tail end of the regular season is upon us, meaning just about every game at this point carries some significant meaning in the College Football Playoff race. The top 25 is a pretty good indicator of who is still in the mix.

Saturday’s slate featured a handful of ranked-on-ranked matchups. That saw several teams shake up in our projections, including several teams near the bottom of the top 25.

There was a lot to digest. Today, On3 stops to break down some of the changes anticipated in this week’s AP Top 25. Let’s dig into our projections for the new edition of the top college football poll below.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0)

RESULT: 48-10 win vs. UCLA
Ohio State wasted little time jumping out to a big early lead over UCLA, pitching a first-half shutout to take a commanding 27-0 lead. Quarterback Julian Sayin was once again on point and was basically resting by the fourth quarter.

That’s been the theme for Ohio State. You have to go all the way back to the season opener to find a relatively close game, and even that one was relatively controlled. Next up is Rutgers, followed by a final top 25 showdown with Michigan on the road.

2. Indiana Hoosiers (11-0)

RESULT: 31-7 win vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin had put together a little bit of momentum recently, but Indiana made sure it wasn’t about to be caught up in any of that. The Hoosiers absolutely dominated the second half, pitching a shutout defensively while scoring 21 points on offense.

That was enough to seal a comfortable win as Indiana essentially assured itself of a playoff spot with an 11th win this year. Fernando Mendoza? Once again excellent. He finished with 299 yards passing and four touchdowns in the win.

3. Texas A&M Aggies (10-0)

RESULT: 31-30 win vs. South Carolina
Texas A&M dug itself a huge hole, going down 30-3 in the first half. Improbably, the Aggies worked all the way back to level pegging by game’s end. A shutout in the second half allowed the Aggies to score 28 to eke out the win.

You’re going to have to survive some games like that, and the Aggies have proven adept at that so far this year. Marcel Reed threw two interceptions but also finished with 439 yards passing and three scores, more than making up for the miscues in the end.

4. Georgia Bulldogs (9-1)

RESULT: 35-10 win vs. Texas
It doesn’t always happen quickly, but Georgia almost always wears on you over the course of the game. The only time it didn’t really work was against Alabama, and the Bulldogs were right in there with a shot in that one, too.

Against Texas in a game with major top 25 and playoff implications, quarterback Gunner Stockton was once again on point. He threw for four touchdowns and ran for another as Georgia moved into a more dominant position in the SEC race.

5. Ole Miss Rebels (10-1)

RESULT: 34-24 win vs. Florida
Things got interesting for Ole Miss, but it made the plays needed down the stretch and Florida did not. Even a late decision to for it on fourth-and-goal up 27-24 (the Rebels did not convert) didn’t end up proving costly.

Trinidad Chambliss threw for 301 yards and a touchdown, while Kewan Lacy ran for 224 yards and three scores. That ended any notion of the Gators springing an upset on the seemingly playoff-bound Rebels.

6. Oregon Ducks (9-1)

RESULT: 42-13 win vs. Minnesota
In a somewhat rare Friday night game, Oregon came out ahead in pretty convincing fashion. The team led 28-6 at halftime and the game was never really in dispute. That’s what top 25 teams do, they look the part.

Oregon certainly looks the part of a playoff contender at this point. The team’s lone loss is to an unbeaten Indiana team that has steamrolled plenty of quality opponents this year. The Ducks are close to locking up their own bid.

7. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1)

RESULT: 48-9 win vs. UCF
Texas Tech came out hot out of the gates, thanks in no small part to linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. Rodriguez even got involved with a rushing touchdown early on. Texas Tech had a 38-2 lead at the halftime break and cruised from there.

The Red Raiders have proven their mettle with a pair of top 25 wins earlier this season against Utah and BYU. There are no ranked opponents left, with only a road trip to West Virginia standing in the way of a playoff berth.

8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-2)

RESULT: 37-15 win at Pittsburgh
Notre Dame opened up a two-touchdown lead in the first quarter and never really looked back. The Fighting Irish added points in every frame to keep constant pressure on a Pittsburgh team that cracked under it.

Jeremiyah Love had another big day for the Irish, rushing for 147 yards and a touchdown in the win. That helped cover for two interceptions on the part of quarterback CJ Carr.

9. Oklahoma Sooners (8-2)

RESULT: 23-21 win at Alabama
It was far from a perfect win at Alabama, but the defense put the team in position to succeed and John Mateer and company delivered. The Sooners scored on four short fields, including on a pick-six from Ty Simpson. That was enough to power past Alabama in a hostile road environment.

The win cements Oklahoma as a bona fide playoff contender but otherwise does relatively little. The scenario for Oklahoma has always been win out to get in. With home games against Missouri and LSU remaining, that’s certainly doable.

10. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2)

RESULT: 23-21 loss vs. Oklahoma
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson just didn’t seem to have it all the way on Saturday, despite finishing with 326 passing yards and a touchdown. He threw one interception and missed several key conversion opportunities with poor throws.

That was enough for the Oklahoma defense to keep Alabama off-kilter through most of the afternoon. The Sooners were able to capitalize on a handful of short fields to come away with the win. Now Alabama’s path is equally clear: It must win out the rest of the regular season, at minimum.

Rest of the AP Top 25 Projections

11. BYU Cougars (9-1)
12. Vanderbilt Commodores (8-2)
13. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-1)
14. Utah Utes (8-2)
15. Miami Hurricanes (8-2)
16. USC Trojans (8-2)
17. Michigan Wolverines (8-2)
18. Texas Longhorns (7-3)
19. Virginia Cavaliers (9-2)
20. Tennessee Volunteers (7-3)
21. James Madison Dukes (9-1)
22. Missouri Tigers (7-3)
23. Tulane Green Wave (8-2)
24. Houston Cougars (8-2)
25. North Texas Mean Green (9-1)