College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: ESPN breaks down who's in, who's out after Week 8

The Selection Committee for the College Football Playoff will release its first set of rankings two weeks from tonight on November 4th. With that, ESPN’s Heather Dinich has released yet another look with her projection, with teams trending toward or out, of the CFP.

On Tuesday morning, Dinich posted her latest edition of bubble watch for the College Football Playoff. It goes through every team in the Power Four, Notre Dame as an independent, and the top teams out of the Group of Five with each one labeled anywhere in five categories from Would Be In to Out.

Here is that updated preview of the playoff as of this morning from Dinich:

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
On the cusp: Vanderbilt
Work to do: LSU, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas
Would be out: Mississippi State
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina

Vanderbilt (6-1) was the focus this week out of the Southeastern Conference, but with Dinich noting that the Commodores, while on the cusp, have more work to do resumé-wise to ensure they’d be in consideration. Luckily for them, Vandy will get that opportunity on Saturday in a Top-15 matchup in Nashville against Missouri (6-1), who was also highlighted as they’re in a similar situation as their opponent this weekend.

As for those trending down, LSU (5-2) and Tennessee (5-2) have gone from Would Be In and On The Cusp, respectively, to Work To Do. That’s as the Tigers and Volunteers both lost Top-20 conference matchups on the road, in Nashville and Tuscaloosa, to take not just their second losses each but their second conference losses as well, putting both of them in need of winning out in order to make the CFP.

Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: None
Work to do: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, USC
Would be out: Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Washington
Out: Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin

The Big Ten saw the most movement of any section of this bubble watch for the College Football Playoff. That starts with Illinois (5-2), Iowa (5-2) with a win over Penn State, and Michigan (5-2) with a win over Washington, all coming back up to Work To Do.

Then, USC (5-2) with a loss at Notre Dame, joined them in Work To Do, while Nebraska (5-2) with a loss at Minnesota and Washington (5-2) with a loss at Michigan also trended down to Would be Out, with each of the Trojans, Cornhuskers, and Huskies picking up their second losses of the season. Southern Cal, though, was highlighted here by Dinich, as their loss came out of conference to the Fighting Irish and, with only one loss in league play, are still in contention to be in the Big Ten Championship.

ACC

Would be in: Miami, Georgia Tech
On the cusp: Virginia
Work to do: Louisville
Would be out: California, Duke, NC State, Pittsburgh, SMU, Stanford, Wake Forest
Out: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

The focus this week in the ACC was three teams all trending upward. Georgia Tech (7-0) got into Would Be In by staying undefeated with a win at Duke, Virginia (6-1) moved to On The Cusp with a fourth-quarter comeback win over Washington State, and Louisville (5-1) went into Work To Do with an upset win at Miami on Friday night.

The ‘U (5-1), despite the loss, remained the projected champion in this playoff projection by Dinich out of the Atlantic Coast Conference. But, with these shifts, a lot is still to be determined of how many teams, and which teams it’ll be, will come from out of this league to make the CFP.

Big 12

Would be in: BYU
On the cusp: Texas Tech
Work to do: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston
Would be out: Arizona, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah
Out: Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia

The Big 12 saw maybe the biggest shift of the bubble watch, with BYU (7-0), still undefeated after a win over Utah in the Holy War, now projected as the conference champions, in what’s projecting to be a one-big league, in Would Be In. That has Texas Tech (6-1), after taking their first loss to ASU in Tempe, down to On The Cusp.

Speaking of, Arizona State (5-2) is now, with that win over the Red Raiders, back up to Work To Do. Then, on the other side of that game in Provo, Utah (5-2) is down to a slot of Would Be Out.

Independent

On the cusp: Notre Dame

Notre Dame is making their necessary push for at-large consideration in the College Football. That’s with five straight wins after their start at 0-2, with Saturday’s victory being the biggest one yet with the 34-24 result over USC in South Bend.

Again, the Fighting Irish have to win out to be in at 10-2, with them being only halfway to that at this point. Still, while currently on the outside at this point, Dinich has them trending upward on the bubble watch, with a chance to earn their way in by the time that December 7th comes around.

Group of Five

Would be in: South Florida
Work to do: Boise State, James Madison, Memphis, Navy, North Texas, Tulane, UNLV

South Florida (6-1) remained the projected champion out of the American, to be the playoff’s representative from the Group of Five, for Dinich. An upset loss by Memphis (6-1) didn’t hurt either, with the Bulls and Tigers set to face each other this weekend in a conference matchup with legitimate playoff implications.

Boise State (5-2 – Mountain West), James Madison (6-1 – Sun Belt), and North Texas (6-1 – American) also came into consideration in Work To Do for Dinich. There’s still much to be determined in this spot for the CFP, though, with five options still from the top of the American, two from the Mountain West, and one from the Sun Belt as far as the G5.

Bracket

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC Champion)
No. 4 Texas A&M

First-Round Games

No. 12 South Florida (American Champion) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 BYU (Big 12 Champion) at No. 6 Miami (ACC Champion)
No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal Games

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia Winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 BYU/No. 6 Miami Winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Georgia Tech/No. 7 Ole Miss Winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Oregon Winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State