College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: ESPN breaks down who's in, who's out after Week 10

We have entered the final month of the regular season in college football after Week 10’s results brought us from out of October and into November, with us set to get our first rankings by the Selection Committee on Tuesday night. That’s led to some significant shifts, with teams everywhere trying to avoid elimination, in the projections for the playoff race by ESPN’s Heather Dinich.

This morning, Dinich updated her bubble watch for the College Football Playoff. It breaks down each conference in the Power Four, as well as Notre Dame and the race in the Group of Five, into different sections, including some new categories as to where every team is currently positioned as to when it comes to the CFP.

Here is that updated bubble watch done this morning by Dinich:

SEC

Would Be In: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last Team In: Ole Miss
First Team Out: Texas
Still In The Mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee

The most notable result from last weekend in the Southeastern Conference was Texas winning 34-31 over Vanderbilt on The 40 Acres. The Commodores were taken out of the field, while still remaining in the mix, while the Longhorns, with the victory to stay at just the two losses overall, along with losses elsewhere in the playoff picture, are now on the brink of maybe being in, or at least under consideration.

The SEC then has four teams in here for Dinich, with Alabama and Texas A&M earning byes after meeting in the SEC Championship while Georgia and Ole Miss were projected as the first two at-larges. Tennessee, with a third loss of their season taken to Oklahoma, and LSU, with what’s gone on the past week and a half in Baton Rouge, were also officially moved to out for the CFP.

Big Ten

Would Be In: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last Team In: Oregon
First Team Out: USC
Still In The Mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin

USC, after a 21-17 win at Nebraska, was the storyline right now in the Big Ten for Dinich, with the Trojans still being at just two losses, each of which were quality as they came on the road to ranked opponents. This final month could be big for their resumé then, especially if they were to win on the road against the team which is the last one in the field from this conference in Oregon.

The Big Ten was also awarded the top two overall seeds after Ohio State and Indiana meet in the Big Ten Championship. Iowa, Michigan, and Washington then remained in some running for a spot, while Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Northwestern were eliminated at ESPN.

Big 12

Would Be In: BYU, Texas Tech
Last Team In: Texas Tech
First Team Out: Utah
Still In The Mix: Cincinnati
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

The Big 12 is trending up right now with it becoming a two-bid league, although with that not likely to last long with BYU and Texas Tech, the two teams projected in as of today, set to meet one another in Lubbock in a Top-10 matchup with massive implications on Saturday. However, Utah, despite two conference losses, could change that, with a blowout win this past weekend over Cincinnati still having them under consideration.

Cincy is then still alive in some sense with just one conference loss, but now two losses overall, after what happened against the Utes on Saturday. But, at this point, Dinich only has three or so teams in contention out of this conference, with it being a matter now of how many playoff berths will be there for the Big 12.

ACC

Would Be In: Virginia
Last Team In: Virginia
First Team Out: Louisville
Still In The Mix: Georgia Tech, Miami
Out: Boston College, California, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pittsburgh, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Saturday saw everything change in the playoff picture for the ACC. Virginia, with a win at California to remain undefeated in league play, is now your projected champion, with Louisville, who’s only loss at this point is to UVA, is then just behind the Cavaliers here for Dinich.

That’s a major shift as, after last weekend, Georgia Tech and Miami were both projected to be, but the Yellow Jackets lost for the first time this season by a dozen on the road at NC State and the Hurricanes lost their second of the year with a six-point defeat at SMU. Now, this may just come down to who makes it to the ACC Championship as to who’ll make or have a chance to make it from this conference into the CFP.

Independent

Would Be In: Notre Dame

Everything has gone according to plan the past month and a half in South Bend. That has now resulted in a projected playoff spot for Notre Dame in this week’s update by Dinich.

The Fighting Irish have won six straight to be in at-large contention at 6-2 overall, and has a very real chance to come into the selection of the field at 10-2. This weekend, though, was big for them beyond their own success, as teams ahead of them have started to lose as well and fall in the race for spots in the CFP.

Group of Five

Would Be In: Memphis
Work to do: James Madison, North Texas, South Florida, San Diego State

Memphis remained the Group of Five berth into the College Football Playoff here for Dinich. That’s with the Tigers still sitting well in the American at 8-1 (4-1) after answering their first loss with wins over USF and Rice.

South Florida also remains in contention here as well out of the American, specifically because of the strength of their resumé with wins over Boise State, Florida, and North Texas and their losses being on the road only to Miami and Memphis. James Madison and San Diego State, the projected champions currently out of the Sun Belt and Mountain West respectively, are also still factoring into this somewhat as far as the G5.

Bracket

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC Champion)
No. 4 Texas A&M

First-Round Games

No. 12 Memphis (American Champion) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC Champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 Champion)
No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal Games

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State