College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: ESPN breaks down who's in, who's out after Week 12

Tonight, we will see the third edition of the CFP Top-25 from the Selection Committee. And, after seven teams lost this weekend who were in last week’s ranking, we’ll get another better idea of who’s still in contention to be in the College Football Playoff.

On Tuesday morning, ESPN’s Heather Dinich posted her updated bubble watch for the playoff going into the latest rankings reveal tonight on ESPN, in between the two games of the Champions Classic. She labels each of the teams from Would Be In all the way to Out, with Dinich noting that “there’s still plenty of hope on the bubble” considering where a lot of the conference title races still stand coming out of November.

Here is that updated bubble watch done by Dinich:

SEC

Would Be In: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last Team In: Alabama
First Team Out: Texas
Still In The Mix: Vanderbilt
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee

The Tide were obviously still the focus for the playoff this a.m. for Dinich after they lost their second game overall, first in conference play, at 23-21 to Oklahoma, who earned themselves a spot in the bracket after being the league’s first team out last week, on Saturday. That dropped Alabama (8-2) to the last team in the field from the SEC, with them going into a must-win in the Iron Bowl but still having a likely chance to reach the SEC Championship, while Texas (7-3) is now the first team out after a 35-10 loss taken on the road to Georgia.

Beyond that, Vanderbilt (8-2) is still the only other team in consideration from the league, with the Commodores likely needing to win out to be in contention come the selection of the CFP. That’s all setting up for, as of now, what looks like a five-bid effort, with an outside chance at a sixth one, by the SEC.

Big Ten

Would Be In: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last Team In: Oregon
First Team Out: USC
Still In The Mix: Michigan
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin

USC (8-2) vs. Oregon (9-1) is going to be the biggest game of the weekend because of the playoff implications in that one up in Eugene. For Dinich, the Ducks are the last team in the field from the conference, while the Trojans are the first team out as the winner on Saturday could edge out the other, with a head-to-head result over them in the penultimate week, for a spot in the CFP.

Michigan (8-2) is then the only other team in consideration from out of the league, with their candidacy coming down to whether or not they can win The Game and end the Buckeyes’ undefeated season. But, as of now, the Big Ten currently projects to have three teams in, with a shot at a fourth, with them led by the top two overall seeds in unbeaten teams with Ohio State and Indiana.

Big 12

Would Be In: Texas Tech
Last Team In: Texas Tech
First Team Out: BYU
Still In The Mix: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Utah
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

The Big 12 is continuing to trend toward ending up as a one-bid league in the playoff, with that seed going to Texas Tech (10-1). That’s as the Red Raiders have one game left, and have the likeliest chance of being in Arlington.

BYU (9-1) is then the most likely team to change that as the next best team but with Cougars being less probable to be in as an at-large, while Arizona State (7-3), Cincinnati (7-3), and Utah (8-2) are still labeled as in the mix due to their chances of still being able to make the Big 12 Championship. But, to this point, the Big 12 may only be getting one team in, and it currently would be Texas Tech as they’re not just playing for seeding but are now making a case, if they win that title game, for a first-round bye in the CFP.

ACC

Would Be In: Miami
Last Team In: Miami
First Team Out: Georgia Tech
Still In The Mix: Duke, Pittsburgh, SMU, Virginia
Out: Boston College, California, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

With the mess that has been the ACC, Dinich went with Miami (8-2) as the conference’s projected representative to be in the CFP. That’s only due to their ranking from a week ago by the selection committee, though, as the Hurricanes are more so looking for an at-large as they’re currently unlikely to be playing for a spot in Charlotte.

Because of that, Georgia Tech (9-1) is next as the first team out based on their present likelihood to be in the title game, while Duke (5-5), Pittsburgh (7-3), SMU (7-3), and Virginia (9-2) are also all still alive as they could all still make the ACC Championship. Still, more of this won’t shake out until we know who’s in that game and has a chance to win the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Independent

Would Be In: Notre Dame

Notre Dame (8-2) has been projected to be in for a while now, having done what they’ve needed to do after losing their first two with eight straight victories for the Irish. That’s after what was likely their most-difficult remaining game this past weekend in winning at 37-15 on the road over Pittsburgh.

Now, the Fighting Irish have two remaining games that they’ll be heavily favored in against Syracuse and Stanford, a pair of teams in the ACC who currently each sit at 3-7 respectively. That sets up exactly as planned for them in South Bend, with Notre Dame just needing to handle their last bit of business to get to 10-2 and again be in the College Football Playoff.

Group of Five

Would Be In: Navy
Still In The Mix: James Madison, North Texas, Tulane

Navy (8-2) completely shook up the projections out of the Group of Five, as they won at 41-38 over the previously predicted team to be in with USF. Now, with a game left at Memphis, the Midshipmen have put themselves in position to be in and win the American Championship, thereby earning a spot in the CFP.

With the season-long state of the American, Tulane (8-2) and North Texas (9-1) are then just as likely, if they can get to that game and win, to represent the G5. James Madison (9-1), also remains in the running as the projected winner of the Sun Belt.

Playoff Projection

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC Champion)
No. 4 Georgia

First-Round Games

No. 12 Navy (American Champion) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 Champion)
No. 11 Miami (ACC Champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal Games

No. 12 Navy/No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State