College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: ESPN breaks down who's in, who's out after Week 13

Entering the final week of the regular season, we have our clearest idea yet of who is still in play to make the College Football Playoff. Now, ahead of tonight’s latest reveal of the rankings, ESPN’s Heather Dinich has previewed the bubble again for the CFP.

Dinich did so in her weekly article that she posted on Tuesday morning. It broke down each conference in the Power Four, as well as Notre Dame among the independents and those from the Group of Five, into categories, with few teams ‘still in the mix’ or better in their standing at this point as far as the College Football Playoff.

Here was that updated look at the bubble for the CFP as projected today by Dinich:

SEC

Would Be In: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last Team In: Alabama
First Team Out: Vanderbilt
Still In The Mix: None
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas

Going into the final weekend of November, the Southeastern Conference has five teams currently projected to be in the playoff with Alabama (9-2), Georgia (10-1), Oklahoma (9-2), Ole Miss (10-1), and Texas A&M (11-0). The Aggies, Bulldogs, and Rebels, all with rivalry games to play on Black Friday, are in better positions to remain that way, while the Sooners and Crimson Tide likely need wins on Saturday, with ‘Bama still trying to make the SEC Championship as well, to remain in contention for the CFP.

Vanderbilt (9-2) is then the first team out from the SEC, with the Commodores, pending their ranking after tonight, being in need of help to somehow get into the field as “a long shot for an at-large bid”. And then, based on their rating in last week’s reveal by the selection committee, Dinich does think Texas (8-3), even if they were to win on Friday over A&M to get to 9-3, is too far out now, as she officially eliminated the Longhorns

Big Ten

Would Be In: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last Team In: Oregon
First Team Out: Michigan
Still In The Mix: None
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin

Next, three teams are projected to be in from the Big Ten, with Indiana (11-0), Ohio State (11-0), and Oregon (10-1). The Ducks are then in better standing now with the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers, the top two seeds overall so far for the field, after getting a seemingly must-win result over ‘SC in Eugene on Saturday.

Speaking of, USC (8-3) has since fallen off of the playoff bubble for Dinich. That leaves only Michigan (9-2) vying for a spot, with a path in front of them, starting with hosting The Game to earn a chance not just at a possible berth the Big Ten Championship but at least for one as an at-large for the College Football Playoff.

Big 12

Would Be In: Texas Tech
Last Team In: Texas Tech
First Team Out: BYU
Still In The Mix: Arizona State, Utah
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

Heading into the final weekend, the Big 12 continues to project as a one-bid league with Texas Tech. The Red Raiders, at this point making more than a case to be an at-large, can solidify where they stand in that with a win in Morgantown on Saturday to clinch a spot in the conference title game in Arlington.

As for who will join them, BYU (10-1) can set up a rematch with a win this weekend, although a win in the Big 12 Championship looks to be the only way in as of now for the Cougars. Arizona State (8-3) and Utah (9-2) are then also still alive considering they can still make that championship game, while Cincinnati (7-4) has now been eliminated with the Bearcats having lost three straight.

ACC

Would Be In: Miami
Last Team In: Miami
First Team Out: Virginia
Still In The Mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, SMU
Out: Boston College, California, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

The ACC remains a mess right now, with six teams still having some sense of a chance to be in the College Football Playoff if they can be the one who wins in Charlotte. Miami (9-2) is the highest-rated team in the league, and therefore is projected in by Dinich, but the Hurricanes are more likely to have to make a case as an at-large as of now, which is where Virginia (9-2) comes in as the Cavaliers have a simple path to that title game.

Duke (6-5), Georgia Tech (9-2), Pittsburgh (8-3), and SMU (8-3) are then all still alive, to some extent or another, with ways to be in the ACC Championship. But, besides what happens with the ‘U, more won’t be known about where these odds really stand until we see the latest rankings and determine who’s actually going to play for it all in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Independent

Would Be In: Notre Dame

Notre Dame (9-2) has done what they’ve needed to do to be in the field for the College Football Playoff. They, after losing their first two to quality opponents by four points combined, have won nine in a row, with them having done so in some dominant fashions and arguably some of their best football just as of late.

With that, the Fighting Irish need only win on Saturday night against Stanford. That, at that point, would be their way of clinching a berth into the CFP at 10-2, while they await where they fall and how the rest of the field sorts out by Selection Sunday.

Group of Five

Would Be In: Tulane
Still In The Mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida

With the constant changes as well in the American, Tulane (9-2) is now projected here by Dinich after, in the rankings last week, being the highest-rated team out of the Group of Five. East Carolina (7-4), Navy (8-2), North Texas (10-1), and South Florida (8-3) are all in contention here too with a chance to be in or win the American Championship.

James Madison (10-1) then remains the only team outside of the American to be projected with a chance, as the Dukes already have a spot clinched in the Sun Belt Championship. Much still needs to be sorted out, though, with a better idea coming tonight in the rankings, as far as who could be that representative in the playoff as the highest-ranked conference champion out of the G5.

Playoff Projection

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC Champion)
No. 4 Georgia

First-Round Games

No. 12 Tulane (American Champion) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 Champion)
No. 11 Miami (ACC Champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal Games

No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State