College Football Playoff Rankings: ESPN uses formula to predict first CFP Top 15

Tuesday night, ESPN will reveal the first College Football Playoff rankings of the year. As the calendar flips to November, the sprint toward the CFP is officially here.

Ahead of the reveal, ESPN’s Bill Connelly used his SP+ projection to predict the first top 15.

The SP+ rankings put the top 15 teams into three tiers. The top tier features the top four teams, who have at least a 50% chance of making the CFP, while the second tier has 11%-30% of cracking the field and the third tier has between a 1% and 10% chance.

1. Georgia

Although there have been some questions about whether Georgia should be No. 1, the Bulldogs hold the top spot in the SP+ projection after last week’s victory at the world’s largest outdoor cocktail party. Carson Beck had a huge day, completing 19 of 28 passes for 315 yards and two touchdowns to help UGA get the resounding 43-20 victory over Florida in Jacksonville.

Georgia looks like it could be in position to be atop the first College Football Playoff rankings even despite losing Brock Bowers for a few more weeks due to injury. The Bulldogs, hunting for a three-peat, are now preparing to host Missouri this week.

2. Michigan

With so much surrounding Michigan off the field, the Wolverines have been one of the most dominant teams on the field. They come out of the bye week with a 7-0 record and have been flying past the competition.

The biggest criticism of Michigan on the field this year is the strength of schedule, which ranks 109th in the nation, according to SP+. That could go against the Wolverines’ hopes of being No. 1 when the first College Football Playoff rankings drop Tuesday night.

3. Ohio State

With two top wins under its belt, including one over Penn State in Week 8, Ohio State looks like a team that could making things interesting this season. The Buckeyes have three more games until facing arch-rival Michigan in The Game, and they’ve made the stakes even higher for that matchup.

Led by wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and a strong defense under second-year coordinator Jim Knowles, Ohio State could find itself in the top four of the CFP rankings until that game against Michigan. The Buckeyes have the strength of schedule to make a case for the top part of the rankings, and they’re a team to watch as the season goes along.

4. Florida State

Alone atop the ACC standings, Florida State has rode one of the best offenses in the country to an 8-0 record this year. The Seminoles rank No. 5 in the nation in scoring offense and look like they could sneak into that No. 4 spot in the first College Football Playoff rankings.

Jordan Travis continues to make a case for the Heisman Trophy and his top target, Keon Coleman, looks like a first-round NFL Draft pick. FSU has two more conference games left and looks primed for an ACC title game appearance, which would add to their case for a CFP berth, as well.

5. Washington

When it comes to the No. 4 spot in the first CFP rankings, Washington could also make a case for that spot. The Huskies have a top-10 victory over Oregon under their belts and the Heisman Trophy favorite in Michael Penix Jr., and SP+ puts them at No. 5 heading into Week 10.

UW is in first place in the Pac-12 as the only undefeated team in conference play. An intriguing matchup awaits this week as the Huskies take on an up-and-down USC team on Saturday.

6. Oregon

The team Washington beat in Week 8, Oregon is still firmly in the College Football Playoff picture. The Ducks left no room for doubt last week against Utah, defeating the Utes 35-6 in Salt Lake City to reaffirm their position in the landscape.

Bo Nix continues to look like a Heisman contender and still has the highest completion percentage in the nation. Next up for Oregon is a game against Cal on Saturday before USC comes to town next week.

Nos. 7-15

7. Texas
8. Alabama
9. Penn State
10. Ole Miss
11. Oklahoma
12. Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. Missouri
15. Louisville

The first College Football Playoff rankings represent the start of a final sprint toward conference championships. That gets underway Tuesday night with the first rankings reveal at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

CLICK HERE to view ESPN’s full SP+ projections.