College Football Predictions: ESPN picks winners of every Top 25 game in Week 4

On3 imageby:Nick Kosko09/20/23


J.D. PicKell's Top 10 Rankings

ESPN’s FPI predicted the winners of every top 25 game in Week 4 and boy it is a loaded slate with great games.

Some games feature heavy favorites, some razor thin margins and percentages that look at teams taking a road trip. Of course, throw predictions out the window once the games start, but there are significant lines this weekend.

Below are the predictions for all of the teams within the top 25 that are in action this week, starting with the No. 1 team in the country.

No. 1 Georgia vs. UAB

(Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Spread: Georgia (-42)
FPI prediction: Georgia – 98.6%

The Bulldogs are a massive favorite here and anything short of a blowout would be borderline stunning, nothing against UAB. This should be an opportunity for Carson Beck to really get into a groove.

No. 2 Michigan vs. Rutgers

(Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)

Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Spread: Michigan (-24)
FPI prediction: Michigan – 84.9%

Jim Harbaugh returns for this game after three games on suspension. Expect him to break it all out and let the offense loose against a 3-0 Rutgers team likely to be way overmatched.

No. 3 Texas at Baylor

(Mikala Compton/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Spread: Texas (-15)
FPI prediction: Texas – 90.1%

The Longhorns are a huge favorite here, despite going on the road to play the Bears. Quinn Ewers and the offense should put up a lot of points, despite Dave Aranda’s knack for defense.

No. 4 Florida State at Clemson

(Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET (ABC)
Spread: Florida State (-2.5)
FPI prediction: Florida State – 57.3%

Clemson is reeling at this point based on previous success and Florida State could very well be the new kings of the ACC. But, going to Clemson is a challenge for the Seminoles. Can Mike Norvell and crew keep it rolling?

No. 5 USC at Arizona State

(Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)

Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Spread: USC (-34.5)
FPI prediction: USC – 98.1%

Boy, welcome back to action USC. This is a massive line and ESPN’s FPI is nearly at 100% for the Trojans and Caleb Williams. Lincoln Riley’s crew might roll into Tempe and leave unscathed, completely.

No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Notre Dame

(Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
Spread: Ohio State (-3)
FPI prediction: Ohio State – 65.8%

The spread is pretty close but ESPN’s FPI has this heavily in the favor of Ohio State. We’re talking closer to 70% of victory. This has a shootout written all over it.

No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 24 Iowa

(Bryon Houlgrave/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Spread: Penn State (-15)
FPI prediction: Penn State – 86.8%

The Nittany Lions are the best team in the Big Ten, if you don’t count Michigan or Ohio State. Iowa is stout defensively, but going to Penn State is a different animal. Good luck.

No. 8 Washington vs. California

(Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports)

Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Spread: Washington (-21)
FPI prediction: Washington – 84.6%

Cal plays host and Justin Wilcox’s team is ready, but that’s pretty much it. The Huskies are a huge favorite with Michael Penix Jr., a Heisman Trophy candidate, at the controls of that offense.

No. 10 Oregon vs. No. 19 Colorado

(Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Spread: Oregon (-21)
FPI prediction: Oregon – 93.9%

Oh boy, look at the chances for Oregon in this one. The Ducks are a huge favorite against one of the biggest stories in recent college football memory. Colorado is without Travis Hunter for a few weeks.

Predictions for rest of Top 25 slate

No. 11 Utah vs. No. 22 UCLA
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Spread: Utah (-4.5)
FPI prediction: Utah – 65.4%

No. 12 LSU vs. Arkansas
Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Spread: LSU (-17.5)
FPI prediction: LSU – 88.3%

No. 13 Alabama vs. No. 15 Ole Miss
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Spread: Alabama (-7)
FPI prediction: Alabama – 66%

No. 14 Oregon State vs. No. 21 Washington State
Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
Spread: Oregon State (-3)
FPI prediction: Oregon State – 65.7%

No. 16 Oklahoma at Cincinnati
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
Spread: Oklahoma (-14.5)
FPI prediction: Oklahoma – 86.7%

No. 17 North Carolina at Pittsburgh
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET (ACC Network)
Spread: North Carolina (-7.5)
FPI prediction: North Carolina – 63.7%

No. 18 Duke at UConn
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
Spread: Duke (-21.5)
FPI prediction: Duke – 92.6%

No. 20 Miami at Temple
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Spread: Miami (-23)
FPI prediction: Miami – 95%

No. 23 Tennessee vs. UTSA
Kickoff: 4:00 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Spread: Tennessee (-21)
FPI prediction: Tennessee – 86.3%

No. 25 Florida vs. Charlotte
Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+/SECN+)
Spread: Florida (-28)
FPI prediction: Florida – 95.3%

So there you have it for Week 4. Make sure to place your bets, there are some intriguing ones this week, and good luck. Buckle up for the best weekend in college football to date.