ESPN ranks Big 12 teams from first to last after Week 7

The Big 12 remains as competitive as ever as we arrive at the halfway point of the college football season. Now, ESPN has released their latest rating of each of the sixteen teams in the conference.

ESPN’s FPI, which measures team strength on a net points scale based on 20,000 simulations, has been updated again on Tuesday following seven conference games in the Big 12 on Saturday. It saw several shakeups throughout the ranking, including throughout the top-ten, although one team remains atop here as far as this league goes right now.

Here were those latest ratings of the Big 12 per ESPN’s Football Power Index:

1. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-0, 3-0) – 18.0 (+1.6)

With a 42-17 win over Kansas at homecoming this weekend in Lubbock, Texas Tech remained undefeated, one of two teams in the league to still be so, at 6-0. That victory also only improved their standing as the top team in the Big 12 per ESPN’s FPI, as they went up +1.6 to a rating of 18.0

That has the Red Raiders viewed as the massive favorite here right now out of the Big 12. Their projected record sits at 11.5-1.4, with that having them at a 20.7% chance to win out, at a 58.4% chance to win the conference, and a 69.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff, as the No. 10 team in the entire country per the FPI.

2. Utah Utes (5-1, 2-1) – 16.3 (+2.5)

Utah, though, has made a jump into second here in the Big 12 according to ESPN’s FPI. A 42-10 win over Arizona State, albeit with the Sun Devils without their starting quarterback, improved their rating by +2.5, the biggest in the conference this week, to move up a spot up from third.

The Utes are still behind in the real-life conference race, specifically since their lone loss came at home in a 34-10 blowout against Texas Tech. Still, with a projected record of 9.5-2.9, they’ll continue to have a chance at conference and playoff contention as a Top-15 team currently according to FPI.

3. BYU Cougars (6-0, 3-0) – 14.8 (+0.3)

Despite also still being unbeaten at 6-0 themselves with a 33-27 2OT win in Tucson, BYU was the team that was passed as they improved just +0.3. However, the Cougars’ outlook according to the Football Power Index is second only to that of Texas Tech.

Per FPI, Brigham Young has a projected record of 9.8-2.6, with them being only second to the Red Raiders in chance to win the Big 12 at 17.4% and to make the CFP at 37.4%. They’ll take that out in Provo, being a Top-20 team in the FPI as one of the only clear contenders currently out of the conference.

4. TCU Horned Frogs (4-2, 1-2) – 9.8 (-1.6)

TCU remained in fourth overall in the Big 12 per the FPI. That said, their rating took a hit of -1.6 as they fell to 4-2 overall with a second loss, with this latest one coming at 41-28 on the road to Kansas State.

The Horned Frogs remain one of the better-rated teams here in the league. Those two conference losses in the past three weeks, though, already limit the chance of what they could accomplish this season, with a projected record of 7.6-4.5 and less than a 1% chance now to win the Big 12 or reach the CFP.

5. Iowa State Cyclones (5-2, 2-2) – 9.1 (-0.6)

Iowa State actually went up one spot from fifth to sixth in the actual ratings. However, their specific number actually went down by -0.6 with a second-straight loss as well, each of theirs coming on the road too, with this past weekend being a 24-17 loss at Colorado.

Having opened at 5-0, the season outlook does still have some hope in it with a projected record of 8-4, as well as a 5.4% chance to win the Big 12 Championship and a 6.3% chance to make the CFP. But, there’s no denying that the Cyclones’ season has taken a turn in October.

6. Kansas Jayhawks (4-3, 2-2) – 8.5 (-1.7)

Kansas went to Lubbock on Saturday and took their worst loss of the season in that 42-17 blowout to the Red Raiders. That resulted in the second-worst slide of any team in the conference per FPI.

The Jayhawks, falling to 4-3, saw their rating drop by -1.7. Now, as the lone three-loss team to be in the top-ten, KU is projected at a record of 6.8-5.2, and, with two of those losses being in league play, have just a 0.2% chance to win the conference title game or be in the playoff at this point, which are also each the worst stat among those in the top-ten.

7. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1, 3-0) – 8.1 (-)

Cincinnati has overachieved to this point of the season, having won five straight since losing their opener to Nebraska. That means the Bearcats are also 3-0 against the Big 12, with wins at Kansas and over Iowa State and UCF having them as the only other undefeated team in conference play along with the Red Raiders and Cougars.

That being the case, though, Cincy, while moving up to seventh, didn’t see its actual rating change from that of 8.1. But, they are the next team in the league behind Texas Tech, Utah, and BYU as far as the projections, with a record predicted of 8.3-4.0, a 5.4% chance to win the Big 12 title, and even a 6.3% chance to make the CFP.

8. Kansas State Wildcats (3-4, 2-2) – 7.7 (+1.1)

Kansas State still is one of the four teams in the league that has a losing record overall, and is the only team in the top-ten with one. Even so, the Wildcats have won two in conference play the past three weeks, including the 41-28 result over TCU on Saturday, to move up a spot to eighth with a rating improvement of +1.1 per FPI.

K-State is still predicted to have a losing or dead-even record of 5.5-6.5, with just a 0.3% chance to win the Big 12 and a 0.2% chance to make the CFP. Still, after a 1-3 start, the past three weeks have been an improvement coming out of their first bye in Manhattan.

9. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-2, 2-1) – 6.5 (-2.7)

Arizona State took the biggest drop in the conference this week down two spots to ninth with their rating falling at -2.7. That’s after taking their second loss of the season, and their first in league play, by a score of 42-10 at Utah, despite the absence of QB Sam Leavitt.

The Sun Devils still have some chances left this season, with the FPI predicting a record of 7.2-4.9 with a 1.2% chance to win the Big 12 and a 1.4% chance to make the CFP. But, with two losses already, even with just one in the Big 12, it’ll be difficult for them to repeat last season’s success out in Tempe.

10. Baylor Bears (4-2, 2-1) – 6.1 (+0.4)

Baylor rounds out the top-ten again at a rating of 6.1 per FPI. That’s with a +0.4 improvement in their rating despite coming off a bye in Waco.

The Bears, at 4-2 overall, is predicted to finish at just 6.8-5.3, with only a 0.6% chance to win either the conference or make the playoff. However, with just one conference loss to this point, they still currently control their own destiny out of the Big 12.

11. Arizona Wildcats (4-2, 1-2): 5.4 (+0.1)
12. Colorado Buffaloes (3-4, 1-3): 4.1 (+1.2)
13. UCF Knights (3-3, 0-3): 3.3 (-0.6)
14. Houston Cougars (5-1, 2-1): 2.7 (-1)
15. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-4, 0-3): -3.0 (+0.2)
16. Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-5, 0-3): -13.5 (-1.6)