Florida at Miami prediction: Hurricanes primed to make 'statement' win over Gators

Florida and Miami will meet Saturday for an in-state battle between two programs trending in opposite directions. The Gators are spiraling after back-to-back losses while the Hurricanes already have two ranked wins.

Perhaps the biggest sign in the disparity between the two programs is the results against their only common opponent, USF. Florida lost 18-16 to the Bulls in Week 2 before Miami cruised to a 49-12 win against them this past week.

Florida, on the other hand, fell against LSU after quarterback DJ Lagway threw five interceptions. College football analyst Josh Pate broke down the matchup in the latest episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show. He questioned whether Florida would be more willing to lean on the run here after that performance and if it is a sound strategy.

“How do you call this game if you’re Billy Napier?” he asked. “Florida is 57-42 pass-to-run ratio. Mind-boggling because I thought they had one of the best offensive lines and one of the best tailback rooms in the country. By the way, I may not have been wrong. Jadan Baugh is 6.57 yards per carry right now and he’s averaging 12 attempts per game. Is it punishment? Is his cardio not where it needs to be?

“This is a Florida team that should want to impose their will. It’s not like they’ve been playing from three scores down the whole year either. These have been very, very close games they played so far. So you either commit to running the ball this week at the worst time imaginable because you’re facing maybe the best run defense you’ve seen all year, or you tell DJ to just keep slinging it and hope for the best. Ironically, that may be your best strategy this week. …Do you do it, though? DJ was lost last week. Tossing five picks. Do you really trot him back out there and throw the ball 35 times?”

On the other side, Pate noted that Florida’s defense has looked solid so far this season. The Gators gave up only one touchdown in last week’s loss against LSU and have held their opponents to 20 points or fewer in every game so far.

For that reason, Pate doesn’t see the Miami offense being able to move the ball as easily as it did in the first three games of this season. However, he also noted the experience of quarterback Carson Beck in facing SEC defenses. So even if the scoring isn’t quite as high, he still likes the Hurricanes to move the ball.

“The competition level here is not foreign to Carson Beck,” Pate said. “He played in the SEC multiple years. So he’s seen Florida, but also he’s seen Alabama. He’s seen this level of play. It’s not new to him. And he’s got really good pass catching. Emerging superstar in (Malachi) Toney.

“He’s got running backs they actually will hand the ball off to and he’s got an offensive line that has lived up to the hype. So I’m not all that worried about him and I supremely respect Florida’s defense. You’re gonna have to scratch and claw to hang 24 here, but that’s probably gonna be enough if recent history offensively from Florida is any indication.”

Pate acknowledged that this feels like a spot where Florida is due for a bounce back and vice versa for Miami. But at the same time, he believes the Hurricanes are the more talented team. That’s why he’s riding with them to win this week.

“I’ve gotta tell you, I know what generic history says about this game and I’m gonna go the other way,” he said. “I think Miami’s better and I think they’re looking to make a statement the same as they did when they opened in The Swamp last year and I think they will. That doesn’t necessarily mean Florida plays terribly, I just think Miami’s that much better right now.”