Predicting the first 2025 College Football Playoff Top 25, 12-team CFP Bracket

The first edition of the 2025 College Football Playoff rankings will debut on Tuesday night, when the selection committee reveals its first go at things. But before that, On3 is here to offer some projections of what that might look like.

Plenty of teams have stated their case for a potential playoff bid at this point. And while there’s a lot of football left to be played, we have a pretty good idea who might rank where.

That said, there are usually a few wild cards when the committee unveils its first set of rankings. We’ll adjust these projections accordingly taking those into account as we move forward, but here is our first look at the projected College Football Playoff rankings following Week 10.

A CFP Rankings Reminder

Keep in mind that the College Football Playoff format has shifted slightly this season. Whereas in the first edition of the 12-team playoff the four highest-ranked conference champions were guaranteed a first-round bye, they no longer are.

Also, simply being in the top 12 of the rankings does not guarantee a spot in the playoff. A power conference champion ranked outside the top 12 remains guaranteed a spot, while the highest-ranked Group of Six champion will also be guaranteed a spot in the playoff bracket. Those teams can potentially bump a team in the top 12 out of the bracket.

Projected College Football Playoff Rankings – Top 25

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)*

Ohio State’s schedule isn’t quite as strong as many would have expected before the season, mostly thanks to Penn State‘s collapse. Still, a win over Texas is a high-quality result at this point, as the Longhorns check in as a projected top-12 team here.

The rest of the road for the Buckeyes is fairly manageable. They’ll be a favorite in every game, with a road trip to Michigan the only one that’s likely to be viewed as a potential hurdle.

2. Indiana Hoosiers (9-0)

Indiana is actually a game ahead of Ohio State in the Big Ten standings for now, but we’re projecting the current top-ranked team as the conference champion for the purposes of this exercise. That’s Ohio State. Still, the Hoosiers are in great shape.

A road win over Oregon is as good a win as any in the country. A win over Illinois is also a solid result. A road game to Penn State is probably the biggest remaining test.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)*

Just about nobody has the kind of resume Alabama has in terms of quality wins. The Crimson Tide beat four ranked opponents in a row, including road wins at Georgia and Missouri.

While the loss to Florida State isn’t as high-quality a loss as it once was, it also came in the season opener. It’s hard to argue anyone is in better form than the Crimson Tide right now.

4. Texas A&M Aggies (8-0)

Unbeaten through two-thirds of the season now, Texas A&M checks in as a strong favorite to reach the playoff when things are final. The resume has some really strong spots, too, just not quite the numbers that Alabama has.

A road win at Notre Dame looks better and better each week, while a road blowout at LSU is a good result even as the Tigers are fading. There are still tests, though, starting with a road trip to Missouri this week.

5. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)

Georgia has ranked wins over Ole Miss and on the road at Tennessee, while it’s lone loss is to Alabama. That’s a solid start to a resume. Quarterback Gunner Stockton has been very good.

Two ranked opponents remain: Texas and Georgia Tech. Both games will come at home. For now, the Bulldogs remain in the SEC hunt and could very well find themselves in Atlanta if a few results elsewhere go their way.

6. Ole Miss Rebels (8-1)

Like Georgia, Ole Miss currently has two ranked wins and one ranked loss — to Georgia. That loss was very competitive and has given most people the impression that the Rebels are a bona fide playoff team.

The real trick for the Rebels at this point is simply avoiding a bad loss. Saturday was a big step in that direction. The remaining contests? Against The Citadel, Florida and at Mississippi State. Very manageable.

7. Oregon Ducks (7-1)

Right now making sure quarterback Dante Moore is fully healthy again is probably the biggest storyline for the Ducks, though Dan Lanning has said he should be fine. He left a game against Wisconsin after taking a knock to the face through his facemask.

Regardless, Oregon clearly fits the mold of a College Football Playoff team. The Ducks have only lost once, to a currently unbeaten power conference Indiana team. That said, the schedule so far is a little light. Oregon needs to stack some quality wins against the likes of USC and Washington. Iowa this week will be a test, too.

8. BYU Cougars (8-0)*

For now BYU is the class of the Big 12. The Cougars are the lone unbeaten team in the conference. This week will put that to the test, with arguably the most talented team in the league, Texas Tech, playing host to BYU and College GameDay.

Like a handful of its Big 12 peers, the schedule is a touch light. It gets tougher starting this week, and a road trip to Cincinnati later will also tell us a lot.

9. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1)

Texas Tech has some quality wins already, having beaten the likes of both Utah and Houston on the road. Those are very high-quality wins that the College Football Playoff committee will really like.

A win over BYU would be another and move Texas Tech to the front of the pack in the conference. Keep an eye on that one, because we’ll learn a lot about the Big 12 race there.

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2)

There aren’t many resumes as interesting as Notre Dame’s when it comes to the College Football Playoff. There are two extremely high-quality, close losses to Miami and Texas A&M.

Then there’s a whole bunch of so-so competition. A win over USC right now is the only real thing to write home about, though an upcoming game against Navy provides another decent opponent. Bottom line: Notre Dame has to keep winning to get in.

11. Texas Longhorns (7-2)

While Texas trails Oklahoma in this week’s AP Poll, we’re projecting that the CFP selection committee puts the Longhorns ahead. The head-to-head win is going to be hard to ignore if the two are near each other in the rankings.

And Texas probably has the slightly better overall resume at this point. The Florida loss is what really hurts and ensures that the Longhorns probably have to win out to earn a College Football Playoff berth.

12. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2)

This week’s win over Tennessee was a huge win for Oklahoma and really puts it in the playoff mix once more. That was in question after the team lost to Ole Miss, dropping two of its last three at the time.

Quarterback John Mateer continuing to get healthy again could be the real difference for the Sooners. The schedule remains absolutely brutal. After a bye it’s at Alabama, vs. Missouri, vs. LSU.

Rest of the CFP Rankings: 13-25

13. Virginia Cavaliers (8-1)*
14. Louisville Cardinals (7-1)
15. Vanderbilt Commodores (7-2)
16. Missouri Tigers (6-2)
17. Utah Utes (7-2)
18. USC Trojans (6-2)
19. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-1)
20. Miami Hurricanes (6-2)
21. Michigan Wolverines (7-2)
22. Tennessee Volunteers (6-3)
23. Memphis Tigers (8-1)*
24. SMU Mustangs (6-3)
25. USF Bulls (6-2)

* Indicates projected conference champion

First-Round Byes – College Football Playoff

1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Indiana Hoosiers
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
4. Texas A&M Aggies

Again, unlike last season, the first-round byes are not guaranteed to the four highest-ranked conference champions. That means whichever teams are ranked 1-4 will earn a bye. We have the Big Ten and the SEC splitting this year’s first-round byes at the moment.

First-Round College Football Playoff Matchups

5. Georgia Bulldogs vs. 12. Memphis Tigers
   As noted previously, simply being in the top 12 is not a guarantee you’re in the playoff bracket. Memphis takes the final spot in the playoff as the highest-ranked Group of Six champion, set to face Georgia in the first round.
   
6. Ole Miss Rebels vs. 11. Virginia Cavaliers
   Same story as Memphis, Virginia pushes its way into the field as the ACC champion despite being ranked just outside the top 12 currently. A first-round matchup at Ole Miss would provide a compelling test.
   
7. Oregon Ducks vs. 10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
   Arguably the juiciest of our projected first-round College Football Playoff games, this one would pit two very powerful teams. Both teams have lost at least one major test already this year… what have they learned from those experiences?
   
8. BYU Cougars vs. 9. Texas Tech Red Raiders
   This one would be a rare rematch of a conference showdown. In fact, one we’re set to watch for the first time this week. Obviously things are likely to play out differently, but that’s where our first-round projections post-Week 10 end.