Fearless Forecast: Purdue vs. Northwestern
The stage is set this Saturday for Northwestern (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) to host Purdue (2-4, 0-3 Big Ten) at 2 p.m. The game comes at a high-point of excitement this season as the Wildcats have won three straight, including a dramatic 22-21 upset at Penn State.
The Wildcats are a 3.5-point favorite in this game per BetMGM; it is the second time they’ve been favored against a Big Ten team this season. Head coach David Braun has won both of his previous matchups with Purdue: Northwestern escaped West Lafayette by the skin of their teeth, 26-20 in overtime, last season; the year before, they closed out the old Ryan Field with a 23-15 win in regulation.
This week marks another last game, and a couple other enticements for fans. The stands should be packed for the final football game at Martin Stadium. The Wildcats’ next two “home” games will be played at Wrigley Field, and next year they will move into the palatial new Ryan Field. Other reasons for the fans to flock to the lakeside are the 30th anniversary celebration of Northwestern’s 1995 Rose Bowl team, and the university’s Family Weekend.
Purdue has shown improvement under new coach Barry Odom, even if they are currently riding a four-game losing streak. The Boilermakers have already doubled their win total from last year’s dismal 1-11 campaign, and they took Minnesota down to the wire last week in a 27-20 loss.
Can the Wildcats close out their temporary home stadium with a win? Or will Purdue catch Northwestern resting on their midseason laurels after an emotional win at Happy Valley?
WildcatReport’s staff weighs in with our picks.
MORE ON PURDUE WEEK: Behind Enemy Lines: Purdue | Notebook: Braun talks 1995 Rose Bowl reunion, endorses possible return by Fitzgerald l Northwestern offense finds identity in three-game winning streak
Matt Shelton (4-2)
Northwestern has strung together an impressive three-game winning streak behind an emerging identity: sound defense, a pounding run game and the ability to make a defense pay over the top with seasoned quarterback Preston Stone and rising star receiver Griffin Wilde.
Purdue stands in stark contrast. They have plenty of talent and have shown flashes in some of their losses of the positive trajectory Odom has the program on. But between penalties, turnovers and miscues, they haven’t been able to sustain it.
One nagging question about the Wildcats is how high their offensive ceiling can go against conference competition. They’re 2-1 in Big Ten play but averaging just 17.7 points in those trio of games. I think they can control much of this game but their methodical style and Purdue’s potential for explosive plays prevents them from a comfortable win.
Prediction: Northwestern 24, Purdue 21
Louie Vaccher (4-2)
One thing we’ve learned about David Braun is that he wins the games he’s supposed to. Northwestern isn’t the favorite very often, but in the nine times the Wildcats were laying points in the last three years under Braun, they’ve won eight of them. (The one outlier is the 2024 loss to Duke, when the Cats were favored by just 1.5 points.)
The Wildcats are favored by 3.5 on Saturday against a Purdue team that hasn’t won a Big Ten game on the road since the regular season finale at Indiana. In 2022. That’s just under three years. That’s an unbelievable stat.
I think the Wildcats have the better offense and the better defense, and they’re playing at home. Rain is expected, but that shouldn’t be a problem for Northwestern, which has established its offensive identity with the power running game and feature back Caleb Komolafe.
Plus, the 1995 Wildcats will be in the house. That has to be worth a couple points.
Prediction: Northwestern 27, Purdue 17
