Inside the Gameplan: Texas' Non-Conference in 2016

At Big 12 Media Days, Oklahoma’s head coach Bob Stoops noted that the ideal non-conference slate would include (paraphrasing) a premier match-up against another big time program, a challenging game against a team capable of beating you, and then a game that you should be able to chalk up as a win. Over the last few years Texas’ hasn’t intentionally scheduled to arrive at that result but that’s been more or less what has happened.

The 2015 non-conference schedule took a very young team to South Bend, where the hopes for a strong year were summarily executed, and then back home to face “easy win” Rice, then finally a more iffy contest against Cal. The results of that 3-game stretch spoke to exactly who the 2015 Texas Longhorns were. A young squad that couldn’t stay on the field with the top teams in the nation, couldn’t quite beat a solid Power 5 team, but could still out-talent Rice.

The 2016 schedule presents a nearly identical test of the Longhorns’ standing. Notre Dame should be a Top 25 team, if not a Top 10 squad, Cal will be feisty playing in Berkeley, and UTEP will play hard and physical but should be overwhelmed by Longhorn speed. Here’s a look at the match-ups that will determine how these games shake out and how far a leap Texas has made since 2015.

The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame

Enthusiasm in South Bend is actually pretty high for this team, despite the grievous losses of NFL players such as LT Ronnie Stanley (1st round), WR Will Fuller (1st round), LB Jaylon Smith (2nd round), Center Nick Martin (2nd round),CB Kei’Varae Russell (3rd round), RB C.J. Prosise (3rd round), and DT Sheldon Day (4th round).

That’s right, the 2015 Notre Dame Fighting Irish were arguably the most talented team in college football last year.  They simply had the misfortune to lose their starting QB Malik Zaire after the second game of the year. In their three losses, the Irish lost by two to national runner-up Clemson (24-22), by two to Pac-12 champions Stanford (38-36), and then by 16 points to Ohio State in their bowl game after Jaylon Smith went down to injury.

The 2016 Fighting Irish should be strong again thanks to returning Zaire and his standout replacement DeShone Kizer, but their losses should make them more vulnerable than a year ago. The reason that Irish fans are so optimistic is evident from their Spring game, where many of the young replacements flashed potential.

Let’s start with the Irish defense, which will get the first crack at defending Texas’ new veer and shoot offense. The key to stopping this offense is a sound overall unit with individual components that can survive being isolated and attacked in space.

Either a team needs to be able to hold up the run game with even numbers by consistently beating blocks up front, or else they need to be able to leave defensive backs in man coverage in order to send extra help. Notre Dame’s typical M.O. is to send extra help either in their base quarters coverage or via the Fire Zone blitzes that D-coordinator Brian VanGorder regularly mixes in.

Either strategy would leave cornerbacks Cole Luke and Nick Watkins on islands while asking redshirt freshman nickel Shaun Crawford and true freshman free safety Devin Studstill to lock down the middle of the field. There’s probably not a better route for the Irish though as their LB corps was totally depleted by graduation and Smith’s departure to the NFL necessitating that they involve strong safety Max Redfield to stop the run.

The prospects for the Irish containing the Texas run game in that scenario are fairly solid, mostly due to the return of 6-foot-6, 320-pound nose tackle Jarron Jones. Handling Jones, a massive powerhouse with a quick first step, in the middle of the line is going to be a serious challenge for freshman center Zack Shackleford and could very well be where the game’s outcome is determined. If Texas can survive those encounters, then it simply becomes a game of which youngsters execute better; the young Irish secondary or the freshman quarterback and wide receivers taking the field for Texas?

The Notre Dame offense is somewhat similar to Gilbert’s system in that it’s big on building a downhill running game and taking deep shots from spread formations. If Texas is still able to land ’17 4-star Major Tennison, then Notre Dame might have provided an example of how to involve him in a vertical passing attack and you can expect to see former Longhorn de-commit Durham Smythe involved in this fashion.

A Zaire-led Irish team presents different challenges than a Kizer-led offense and it’ll be important to note which one actually ends up taking the field. Kelly has begun to lean on a strategy of playing his best outside receiver (Fuller last year, Torii Hunter, Jr this year) at the outside field receiver position which opposing defenses tend to yield space to by design. Kizer has enough arm to make the throws outside the hash marks to those targets, he’s basically everything you’d have hoped Tyrone Swoopes would be with a 6-foot-5, 230-pound frame and a cannon arm.

Zaire is less reliable in the passing game (although he shredded Texas a year ago) but he’s a good enough ball carrier that his presence in the backfield essentially gives the Irish a second back in the running game.

Either way, the defensive plan for Texas is fairly obvious, to try and lock down the young Irish receivers with “the silencer” and co. while dropping down Jason Hall or whoever wins the free safety job to control Notre Dame’s running game. Despite the losses on their O-line, the Irish are probably going to be able to over power the Texas run defense at times.

Overall this is a fairly evenly matched game with both teams relying on young talents stepping into key roles. The key differences are that when Texas needs to run the ball they’ll be working against a big, experienced defensive line whereas Notre Dame will be working against a more suspect unit. When Texas needs to execute a big third down, they’ll be leaning on a true freshman QB playing in his first game while the Irish have two good, experienced options to execute in that setting.

For that reason, it’d frankly be fairly shocking if Texas could pull off the win but we should still see numerous signs that these programs are closer than they were in 2015.

The Miners of UTEP

UTEP is the perfect “easy win” non-conference opponent for this Texas team. They’re a physical, run-based team that will look to pound the Longhorn defensive front with big bodies and smashmouth football but they lack the speed and overall talent to keep up. Think 2015 Rice but with the tight ends attached to the formation rather than spread out and you’ll be pretty close.

The biggest challenge here is the sheer size and experience of the Miner offensive front, which you can see for yourself in this table:

 

The left side of that line is loaded with experience and the overall size across the board is pretty considerable. Facing a big, experienced fullback will also be challenging for a Texas defense that doesn’t face that regularly in the Big 12, although they may face it some in practice from Caleb Bluiett.

Also troubling, all this size and experience will be managed by Brent Pease, who comes from the Boise State coaching tree. Pease knows how to build a good running game and how to do it from the types of talents he’ll have on hand at UTEP.

Texas should expect to get some good practice in handling lead zone and power concepts in this game, perhaps from blocking that will be on par with what they’ll face from some of the Big 12 in terms of technique and physicality.

That concern established, the UTEP skill positions aren’t exactly terrifying and a bad defense is making a transition from the 4-2-5 to the 3-4.

Texas should land a few explosive plays that put this game away, much like they did against Rice a year ago, but don’t be shocked if (like the Owls) the Miners hold the ball on offense and find some success picking up steady gains along the ground.

The Bears of California

It’d be easy to dismiss a team that lost a 1st round quarterback and the heart of the defense (linebacker Hardy Nickerson transferred to Illinois to be coached by his father and Lovie Smith) but this is still an Air Raid team and Davis Webb is here.

Eric Nahlin’s all-time favorite Red Raider QB got a fairly raw deal in Lubbock as he dealt with injuries in his freshman and sophomore seasons and was then replaced by a wunderkind in Pat Mahomes who might be the league’s best player. Despite that difficult past, Webb is a legit signal-caller and a proven operator in the Air Raid offense.

The Bears’ skill positions are less than after losing proven players like receivers Kenny Lawler and Stephen Anderson, and 1k yard running back Daniel Lasco. The line returns three out of five starters and Sonny Dykes plugged Kevin Sumlin’s 2015 scapegoat Jake Spavital to coordinate the offense. This will be an explosive unit that can put points on the board, much like last year.

The Bears defense last year leaned on a “bend don’t break” strategy from their 3-4 defense that featured regular 3-man pass rushes and shoddily executed cover 4 schemes.They should be better with a ton of starters back, but they have a long ways to go in order to reach “mediocre” and losing Nickerson surely won’t help. Texas should run all over this group once again.

Where the challenges will come in this game is in trying to cover the Bears in the middle of the field. In 2015, Texas was facing the loaded Cal offense with a secondary that featured an overmatched John Bonney at corner and was quickly without Dylan Haines in the secondary after he was ejected for targeting.

By utilizing normal cover 2 and two-deep fire zones, Texas was able to hold Goff to 7.2 yards per pass (although they gave up three TD passes and picked off zero throws) but were consequently gashed for 280 rushing yards at 6.8 yards per carry.

The 2016 Texas defense figures to handle the Bears’ Air Raid with single-deep safety coverages that rely on Davante Davis, Kris Boyd, Holton Hill, Sheroid Evans, and P.J. Locke playing good man coverage so that a safety can play near the box. If the Longhorns have made strides at nickel, linebacker, and safety in coverage, then they could really limit the passing windows for Webb without also compromising the run defense.

Although Webb will be a handful, the match-ups in this game really favor Texas moreso than the close outcome in Austin a year ago would suggest. The only reason this should be too close is if the younger Longhorns stepping into starting roles struggle on the road.

If Texas has improved as much as you would typically expect from a young team in this scenario, then they should manage a 2-1 finish against this non-conference slate. A 1-2 finish would suggest that something major has gone wrong while 3-0 would indicate a major leap and the possibility of a much better season than Texas fans would have dared to expect.