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Calling my shot

by: Sean Adams11/10/14
Cedric Reed gets ready. (Will Gallagher/IT)

Cedric Reed gets ready. (Will Gallagher/IT)

I’m calling my shot now!

Oklahoma State has been kicked in the head sideways in each of its last three games. They lost…

at No. 12 TCU 42 – 9
vs No. 22 West Virginia 34-10
at No. 9 Kansas State 48-14

Yes, those are pretty good teams but they got beat badly after starting out the season 5–1 and ranked No. 15. Their only loss came at the hands of the defending national champion and then top ranked (now # 2) Florida State 37–31.

There is no way that Oklahoma State does not feel like a paper champion right now. Its wins are against Missouri State, UTSA, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Kansas. They have the same problem that Texas had before the West Virginia victory on Saturday – they did not have a win that makes anybody raise their eye brows and say, “That’s a quality win.”

Texas (5–5) has one game remaining after Oklahoma State, hosting TCU on Thanksgiving.

Oklahoma State (5–4) has two games remaining after Texas with two road games at Baylor and Oklahoma.

It can be argued that the winner on Saturday in Stillwater will go to a bowl and the loser will not.

If you are thinking that I am predicting a Texas victory, you would be right. I am. Say what you want about momentum and scheduling, Texas has won 3 of 4 and Oklahoma State has been choked out three games straight. Momentum is going in the wrong direction for them.

Here’s why Texas will win…

1) Defense travels. Texas might have the best defense in the Big 12 and according to the ESPN Football Power Index Defensive Efficiency metric, UT has the 4th best defense in the country only behind Ole Miss, Clemson, and Alabama.
2) Texas will be able to run the ball. In the last three games Oklahoma State has given up 201 yards per game rushing, averaging over 5 yards per carry.
3) Oklahoma State can’t score. In the last three games, Oklahoma State has average 11 points per game. They did put up 14 points against Kansas State while Texas got blanked.
4) Oklahoma State will struggle to run the ball. They are averaging just over 3.5 yards per carry over the last three games while averaging 144 yards per game on the ground.

Am I reading too much into West Virginia beating OSU pretty handily in Stillwater while UT took care of business in Austin? I could be. But after talking with two people I trust in regards to Oklahoma State, as long at Texas sustains the initial surge of the Cowboys, they do not have much fight in them.

Lastly, the temperature high for gameday against Oklahoma State is supposed to be 44 degrees. It could be below freezing at the kick. Running and defense will win this game.

I’m calling my shot now – Texas!

Side Note: As for there being no love lost between Oklahoma State and Texas OL coach/Co-OC Joe Wickline, Oklahoma State is an average enough football team where it bothers them. There is not even a thought to it on the Texas side.

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