OT: Significant snowstorm on Friday night into Saturday
- Thread starter Mikemarc
- Start date
Freezing rain happens when snow melts into rain in a warm air layer aloft, then falls through a shallow, cold layer near the ground, becoming supercooled (below freezing but still liquid) and freezing instantly upon contact with surfaces below 32°F (0°C), creating a clear, dangerous glaze of ice. This requires a specific temperature profile: cold air (snow), then warm (melted snow), then a thin cold layer (supercooling).
NWS-NYC also cut back substantially on snow for NENJ (Union up thru Bergen) but they kept the warnings up for 2-5" of snow/sleet and a glaze of ice, recognizing that sleet is still very impactful and also not wanting to send the message that there's no concern with heading out into this. The Hudson Valley and LI are still looking at 4-8" or more of mostly snow.
Back to snowing. Hopefully stays that way.
Edit: Now back to ice. This storm is bipolar.
Edit: Now back to ice. This storm is bipolar.
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Backedge showing up in NW NJ..if this doesnt fili in its over at midnight for many...have to wait and see
The latest HRRR wants to refire precip area wide from the stuff in Central PA so well will see but it wasnt right with the first batch
As of 8:00 pm, we've had 1/3" of pure sleet that is hard and crusty and slippery as hell and should be the equivalent of about 1" of snow, mass-wise. That sleet was mostly over by about 6:30 pm and since then we've had more of a mix of snow and sleet, which is dense, but not crusty, on top of that sleet; that layer is about 3/8" right now, so officially 0.7" snow/sleet so far and we have probably 50/50 snow/sleet falling now. I sure hope we get some of that pure white snow ("twice as sweet as sugar, twice as bitter as salt" - name that tune w/o Google). My updated point/click says 2-4" and my hourly graphic says 3.0" of "snow" to come. Crossing fingers. It really is icy out there.
He has ice pellets, aka sleet, not freezing rain, but at least the graphic is good, as it does explain sleet.Freezing rain happens when snow melts into rain in a warm air layer aloft, then falls through a shallow, cold layer near the ground, becoming supercooled (below freezing but still liquid) and freezing instantly upon contact with surfaces below 32°F (0°C), creating a clear, dangerous glaze of ice. This requires a specific temperature profile: cold air (snow), then warm (melted snow), then a thin cold layer (supercooling).
Radar looks awful but short term model wants to refire by midnight...its iffy
That's what I'm seeing in eastern Bergen....a coating and the radar indicating it will be done by 9 p.m.
I really would love to be a meteorologist they have to be wrong 80% of the time what a great job!!
Yup and despite yearly busts it all gets memoryholed with no accountability
We have 3/8" of crusty consolidated ice stuck to all paved surfaces that's really tough to dislodge - I wonder if there was some rain mixed in with the initial sleet to bind it all together. It's difficult to shovel and the driveway road in front of the house are very icy. Then we have about 3/8" of regular loose snow/sleet on top of that for a total of 0.75", which is near nothing in the last 90 minutes. Very fine, light pixie dust falling now and the radar looks like crap. Latest HRRR shows 3-4" by 2-3 am for most in CNJ, but nada so far and the HRRR did terribly on the first part of the storm, so color me skeptical.
What does this even mean? Do you want to have them blindfolded and shot? Public flogging? It's a friggin' hard science to get right and there will be busts from time to time. There's no conspiracy here, especially since forecasts are way better today than they were even 25 years ago. I actually kind of like that it's so chaotic and complex that we still get busts occasionally (in both directions - see Feb 24 where we got 11" vs. 3" expected), as that always adds some drama to the enterprise.
Should we change the title again to "Significant Bust On Friday Night"?
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Public flogging would be nice. Can't be so bad at your job without some criticism. Remember, every time they screw the pooch, the more likely people will ignore the next warning (even if the next event is legit).
Such an epic bust that it's not worth trolling. Just sad.
As of 11:10 pm, we've finally been getting some snow after a 2+ hour lull and no sleet mixed in. We now have a whole 1.0" on the ground, as we had the 3/8" of crusty ice/sleet early on and we had 3/8" snow sleet on top of that by 9:30 pm and we've gotten 1/4" in the last 30 minutes, which all adds up to 1.0". Only 5.1" more to go to reach my prediction for my house, lol. Radar has filed in and maybe we can pull out another 1-2" over the next few hours, as the latest HRRR and RAP runs have me getting ~2" more by 2-3 am (it's actually snowing this time, so maybe they'll be right). That would at least move this from a monumental bust to a serious bust. It's up to 30F.