OT: Tracking Winter Storm Fern 1/25-26
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Icon is ugly...lots of mix and only 5-8...its usually a very bullish model and i dont like it much
its currently the least snowiest model
its currently the least snowiest model
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GFS is a crush job....a long duration 24 hour event with 10-20 inches area wide....would be the dream scenario for snow weenies...yet its all alone with this solution and never scores a coup
Any idea on timing for the start of the snow? Might be scoring some tickets to the Knicks at Sixers Saturday at 3pm. I think I'm in the clear but this thing seems to be ever evolving.
yes you will be fine...the earliest models would have it starting in nj around midnight sat night/sun ..there are others that start it at 9am Sun so its probably somewhere in between
Of course, the weenies are probably humping the GFS' leg right now.
I think they realize what the GFS really is as a model however there is something to be said, its output does match with the mt holly snowfall map currently
Agree- just kidding. I haven't gone over there. I avoid it when they are in celebratory mode.
latest from Upton.
Just a question for an idiot like me. I see the Sat-Monday temps are all under 26 by me. Why are they forecasting a possibility of a mix and icing? Seems consistently cold and would be all snow.
I’m an idiot in terms of this, but you may be north of the mixing zone and would get more snow. Not the worst thing as a sleet/frz crust over snow sucks.
because there can be warm air aloft and sleet at 25, we had that earlier this year I think the 2nd storm
Dan Zarrow 1st call.....9-12 across most of central jersey
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It is going to snow hard for several hours Sunday morning. And because it's going to be so ridiculously cold Saturday and Saturday night, that snow will stick to the ground immediately. That is why I remain confident that 6 inches of snow will accumulate even for coastal areas.
Eventually a changeover to icy mix and even plain rain will likely halt those accumulations through Sunday afternoon and evening. Having said that, 6 to 9 inches of snow still represents a major category winter storm for all points along the Jersey Shore.
Also, I did not include Monmouth County in this lowest color contour because I have this personal theory that Monmouth County always overperforms in winter storms. Often, that is where the statewide maximum snow total occurs, oddly enough. (Latest forecast models also show this could be the dividing line between rain and icy mix.) So I put the intersection of my low and medium contours right on the Monmouth-Ocean county line, at least for now.
If it happens Sunday afternoon and evening, these final accumulations of less than a foot will be spot on.
If the forecast shifts colder, and this region stays all snow through Sunday night, I will push accumulations to over a foot in a heartbeat.
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I have to admit: The maximum of 18" is a shot in the dark. I debated going with 16 or 18 or 20 or just putting a "plus sign" on the forecast. But I'll go with the classic 12 to 18 inches for now. Besides, once snow totals are in the double digits, does the exact number really matter at that point?
My only hesitation here is if the storm track makes a significant jog back to the south, which could accordingly shift this "sweet spot" south too. Just like the Blizzard of 2026 — most of New Jersey got a foot or two of snow, but High Point in Sussex County saw a measly four inches.
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After first snowflakes around Midnight Sunday morning, it may take some time for the air to saturate enough for steady snow to take over. But by daybreak Sunday, I think we are going to see bands of steady to heavy snow take over the state. For several hours from Sunday morning through midday, portions of New Jersey could experience inch an hour (or more) accumulations.
And then icy mix gets involves for southern, coastal, and (maybe) central New Jersey from Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. That will halt accumulates, but conditions will still be very sloppy.
While the storm simmers down Sunday night, don't count out light snow and continued light accumulations until about lunchtime on Monday. (Yes, there will be many school closings and delayed openings around the state on Monday!)
Read More: NJ weekend winter storm update: A foot of snow forecast for some | https://nj1015.com/nj-weather-weekend-winter-storm-update/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral
Snow Totals: The Low End (Green / Southeast)
Traditionally, winter storms produce lower snow totals along the Jersey Shore due to the influence of warmer marine air, causing a warmer ground and/or transition to more of a wintry mix than straight snow. That will be the case eventually with this storm. But not to start.Featured Advertising
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It is going to snow hard for several hours Sunday morning. And because it's going to be so ridiculously cold Saturday and Saturday night, that snow will stick to the ground immediately. That is why I remain confident that 6 inches of snow will accumulate even for coastal areas.
Eventually a changeover to icy mix and even plain rain will likely halt those accumulations through Sunday afternoon and evening. Having said that, 6 to 9 inches of snow still represents a major category winter storm for all points along the Jersey Shore.
Also, I did not include Monmouth County in this lowest color contour because I have this personal theory that Monmouth County always overperforms in winter storms. Often, that is where the statewide maximum snow total occurs, oddly enough. (Latest forecast models also show this could be the dividing line between rain and icy mix.) So I put the intersection of my low and medium contours right on the Monmouth-Ocean county line, at least for now.
Snow Totals: The Middle (Orange / Southwest & Central)
The greatest uncertainty of this forecast at the moment is right here, in the orange area of my map. That is because I can not tell for sure how far west and how far north warmer air will penetrate aloft, causing a period of sleet and/or freezing rain.If it happens Sunday afternoon and evening, these final accumulations of less than a foot will be spot on.
If the forecast shifts colder, and this region stays all snow through Sunday night, I will push accumulations to over a foot in a heartbeat.
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Snow Totals: The High End (Blue / North)
It's going to snow and snow and snow some more. North of the Raritan River looks like the sweet spot for deep snow accumulations, on the order of a foot-plus. Temperatures will be cold, in the 20s, for the duration. That not only means that icy mix stays to the south. But also the snow-water ratio will be high — yielding a dry, fluffy snow that accumulates quickly.I have to admit: The maximum of 18" is a shot in the dark. I debated going with 16 or 18 or 20 or just putting a "plus sign" on the forecast. But I'll go with the classic 12 to 18 inches for now. Besides, once snow totals are in the double digits, does the exact number really matter at that point?
My only hesitation here is if the storm track makes a significant jog back to the south, which could accordingly shift this "sweet spot" south too. Just like the Blizzard of 2026 — most of New Jersey got a foot or two of snow, but High Point in Sussex County saw a measly four inches.
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Timing
I have decided that I just can not pinpoint a "brunt" of this storm. Sunday is just going to stink from start to finish.After first snowflakes around Midnight Sunday morning, it may take some time for the air to saturate enough for steady snow to take over. But by daybreak Sunday, I think we are going to see bands of steady to heavy snow take over the state. For several hours from Sunday morning through midday, portions of New Jersey could experience inch an hour (or more) accumulations.
And then icy mix gets involves for southern, coastal, and (maybe) central New Jersey from Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. That will halt accumulates, but conditions will still be very sloppy.
While the storm simmers down Sunday night, don't count out light snow and continued light accumulations until about lunchtime on Monday. (Yes, there will be many school closings and delayed openings around the state on Monday!)
Read More: NJ weekend winter storm update: A foot of snow forecast for some | https://nj1015.com/nj-weather-weekend-winter-storm-update/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral
remember these are all first calls..its Thursday...tonights and tomorrows run are huge for fine tuning the forecast...there can be shifts either way
Not to downplay it, but this is getting hyped because we’re not used to storms like this in recent years. We have been through much bigger winter storms than this.Longtime NYC met John Marshall has widespread 8-14
Weenie board already discussing how grocery run has already started with bread and milk off the shelves already
Just got back from Pennington Shoprite. Still had milk, bread and eggs, but the numbers are dwindling. Hardly any fresh berries which pissed me off. Did get an apple ring off the discount shelf, so I've got that going for me.....
The hoarding thing is so ridiculous. If you take advantage of sales and continue to maintain your stock of non perishables, you will not starve. And you’re going to get out in a day or two anyway. Just crazy.
Horrible. Forcing MrScrew & to spend an extra day in Aruba. 
People will only really be locked in on Sunday but later Monday they can make a quick run to the store by later in the afternoon
So hoarding beginning Thursday afternoon, will be bad tomorrow but peak hoarding on Saturday. Last day of can can sale at Shop Rite.
I was driving past the Shop Rite by me around noon today (Thursday). The line of cars waiting to get into the parking lot was down the street
This is something I never understand: the local NWS forecast for my zip code forecasts perhaps 3-5 inches while the NWS briefing calls for a lot more over the area. Who am I supposed to believe?
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.8949495&lon=-74.9721594
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.8949495&lon=-74.9721594
the 0z NAM is warm aloft.....4-9 inches on regular map and only slightly more on kuchera and really slices total south on the other side of GSP
The forecasts are all over the place for Monmouth County.
Fox : 12-18 inches
TWC : 12-16 inches.
Dave Curran : 4-8 inches.
Dan Zarrow : 6-9 inches.
Nick Gregory : 9-12 inches.
Mike Masco : 4-6 inches.
Fox : 12-18 inches
TWC : 12-16 inches.
Dave Curran : 4-8 inches.
Dan Zarrow : 6-9 inches.
Nick Gregory : 9-12 inches.
Mike Masco : 4-6 inches.
Trends so far tonight is sleet making it way up to NORTH NJ.
this will almost definitely cut down on snow totals
this will almost definitely cut down on snow totals