Bowl Projections: ESPN predicts 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, full bowl slate after Week 14

All eyes are now on college football’s postseason after Rivarly Weekend delivered a wild Week 14 that saw seven Top 25 teams go down on the final weekend of the regular season. That included losses by previously undefeated Texas A&M, who fell to No. 16 Texas in Austin, and No. 15 Michigan, whose four-year win streak in The Game came to an end as No. 1 Ohio State claimed its 16th straight win dating back to last year’s College Football Playoff.

With that in mind, ESPN experts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach revealed their updated projection of what the 2025 postseason could look like with only Championship Weekend remaining, including a breakdown of the upcoming 12-team College Football Playoff.

Keep in mind, this year’s 12-team CFP bracket format does away with automatic first-round byes for conference champions, with the opening byes going to the Playoff’s top four highest-ranked teams. That change aside, the first round will once again feature on-site home games for the highest-ranked teams numbered 5-8, just like last season. The first-round winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and subsequently to the semifinals, at previously-designated bowl sites.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 1

Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon

Both ESPN experts remain split on their picks to be the highest-ranked Group of Five champion out of the American Conference, with Bonagura sticking with No. 20 North Texas (11-1, 7-1) and Schlabach sticking with No. 21 Tulane (10-2, 7-1).

They’re also mixed on whether the Big Ten or the SEC’s No. 3 team will earn the coveted fifth seed. That will obviously depend on how far Texas A&M falls after Friday night’s rivalry loss, but Bonagura has the Aggies only dropping two spots to No. 5 while Schlabach gives the benefit of the doubt to Oregon.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 2

Bonagura: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Ole Miss

The ACC fell apart down the stretch, with some pundits questioning whether the Power Four league even deserves a Playoff bid. Given the chaos, Saturday’s ACC title game is between No. 16 Virginia and unranked Duke, though the ESPN tandem believe the Cavs will get it done and back into the Playoff.

Of course, should the Blue Devils pull off the upset in Charlotte, a doomsday scenario for the Power Four could play out if the CFP selection committee opts to give expected Sun Belt champion and No. 19 James Madison (11-1) a second Group of Five bid over a five-loss Duke.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 3

Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M 

Based on their rankings, both ESPN experts expect No. 3 Georgia to get revenge and knock off 10th-ranked Alabama in Atlanta to claim back-to-back SEC championships. And while it’s possible a third loss could doom the Crimson Tide’s Playoff chances, that’s not on the table in this scenario.

Instead, both Bonagura and Schlabach project a three-loss Alabama will face off against one of the SEC’s two one-loss contenders that didn’t make it to Atlanta, either an Ole Miss squad that just lost head coach Lane Kiffin to LSU, or a Texas A&M team coming off its first loss of the season.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 4

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma 
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Neither ESPN prognosticator expects to see a lot of significant movement following Championship Weekend, with a two-loss Notre Dame holding onto the ninth seed and receiving a first-round road trip to face the eighth-seeded Sooners.

Both programs are surging at the right time, with the Irish winning 10 straight since starting 0-2 and Oklahoma beating three straight Top 25 SEC foe — including Alabama three weeks ago — to potentially create a compelling first-round matchup in Norman.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl

Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech

Given the turmoil currently taking place in Oxford following Kiffin’s dramatic exit to Baton Rouge on Sunday, Bonagura expects Alabama to pull off the 10-7 upset of Ole Miss to set up a riveting quarterfinal matchup vs. Big Ten runner-up Indiana in Dallas.

Schlabach, meanwhile, has Oregon dispatching Tulane to set up a Cotton Bowl date vs. Big 12 champion Texas Tech in Dallas. That would pit two of college football’s most well-rounded teams this season against one another, with both programs ranked in the Top 10 in both offense and defense.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 4. Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama vs. No. 2 Indiana

Bonagura projects the fifth-seeded Aggies will get past North Texas in Round 1 only to face off against another Lone Star State rival in expected Big 12 champion Texas Tech. These two former Big 12 rivals haven’t played one another since 2011, the year before A&M joined the SEC.

Schlabach, meanwhile, also has Alabama winning their first-round game on the road to set up an interesting Big Ten vs. SEC quarterfinal in Miami against the currently undefeated Hoosiers, which would be coming off its first loss in the Big Ten title game to top-seeded Ohio State.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Both ESPN experts are all-in on Notre Dame keeping its 10-game win streak going in the Playoffs and pulling the road upset in Norman against an inconsistent Oklahoma. That would set up a rematch of last year’s CFP national championship game between the Irish and Buckeyes.

And based on how last year’s game played out, the Granddaddy of Them All would host two of the hottest teams in college football this season, with Ohio State entering the game having won 17 straight and Notre Dame winning 11 straight since opening the season 0-2.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 11 Virginia vs. No. 3 Georgia

Bonagura projects the Ducks will dispatch Virginia to set up a compelling quarterfinal date vs. back-to-back SEC Champion Georgia in New Orleans. It would pit the revitalized Bulldogs against their former defensive coordinator Dan Lanning, who left for Oregon after guiding UGA to a national title in 2021.

Schlabach, though, projects Georgia will face off against the 11th-seeded Cavaliers, who would have upset No. 6-seed Ole Miss in Oxford in the program’s first game without Lane Kiffin on the sideline. It’s clear the ESPN experts don’t have much faith in the Pete Golding-led Rebels.

CFP National Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Indiana

After several first-round upsets, both ESPN prognosticators go chalk in the quarterfinals with only the Top 4 seeds advancing to the semis. Bonagura pits the Big 12 champion Red Raiders against the Big Ten champion Buckeyes in a Fiesta Bowl matchup between two of college football’s most balanced teams.

Schlabach, meanwhile, envisions a must-see SEC vs. Big Ten semifinal showdown that will have the physically-imposing Bulldogs facing off against the explosive Hoosiers, which rank second nationally averaging 44.3 points per game this season while rolling through the Big Ten undefeated.

CFP National Semifinal at Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State

The two ESPN experts flip their projected semifinal matchups, with Bonagura expecting the back-to-back SEC champion Bulldogs to return to Atlanta as the league’s last chance to keep the Big Ten from rolling to a third-straight CFP national championship against a dominant Indiana squad.

Schalbach, on the other hand, projects a Peach Bowl semifinal between the Big 12 champion Red Raiders and the defending national champion Buckeyes, who haven’t lost since 2024 rivalry game vs. Michigan. Expect a defensive slugfest with both Texas Tech and Ohio State in the Top 6 nationally in total defense.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State

As college football’s only two teams to end the regular season undefeated, and doing so in dominating fashion, both ESPN prognosticators project the CFP national championship game will be a rematch of next week’s Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis.

It would further guarantee the Big Ten claims a third consecutive CFP national title regardless of the ultimate victor in Miami. And given both Ohio State and Indiana have been 1-2 much of the year, this just seems fitting they end the season the same way.

ESPN’s full 2025 bowl slate predictions

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona State vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Delaware vs. Old Dominion

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Missouri State
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. East Carolina

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. NC State
Schlabach: UConn vs. Wake Forest

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. California

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Western Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Penn State

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Kansas State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Navy
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Duke vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Florida

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Houston
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Houston

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. Washington State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: TCU vs. North Texas

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: UTSA vs. James Madison

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: SMU vs. Washington
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona State

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Utah

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. California
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Memphis

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. LSU
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona

Bowl TBD (former Bahamas Bowl)
Site, date TBA
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Delaware
Schlabach: Utah State vs. Missouri State