Bowl Projections: ESPN predicts 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, full bowl slate after Week 8

After eight ranked teams went down in Week 7, Week 8 did it one better as another nine AP Top 25 teams were upended this past weekend. And it began a day early on Friday with Louisville knocking off No. 2 Miami 24-21 and Minnesota stifling No. 25 Nebraska 24-6. Saturday saw seven more ranked teams — No. 5 Ole Miss, No 7 Texas Tech, No. 10 LSU, No. 11 Tennessee, No. 20 USC, No. 22 Memphis, and No. 23 Utah — go down in Week 8. Those setbacks, especially those in the Top 15, are sure to have an impact on the College Football Playoff race.

The first official reveal of the College Football Playoff’s weekly rankings is Nov. 4, two weeks from Tuesday. But in the meantime, ESPN prognosticators Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach have provided a projection of what the 2025 postseason could look like based on the first eight weeks of the season.

Keep in mind, this year’s 12-team CFP bracket format does away with automatic first-round byes for conference champions, with the opening byes going to the Playoff’s top four highest-ranked teams. That change aside, the first round will once again feature on-site home games for the highest-ranked teams numbered 5-8, just like last season. The first-round winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and subsequently to the semifinals, at previously-designated bowl sites.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 1

Bonagura: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia 

Memphis suffered its first loss of the season with Saturday’s 31-24 setback vs. UAB, which could certainly impact its chances of both winning the American and securing the Playoff’s Group of Five bid. But Bonagura isn’t deterred and still has the Tigers facing his fifth-seeded Ducks in the 12-5 matchup.

Schlabach, meanwhile, is also holding firm to his longstanding Group of Five selection of USF, which is currently the highest-ranking G5 member at No. 18 after beating FAU 48-13 on Saturday. He also has Georgia earning the fifth seed after knocking off No. 5 Ole Miss at home this weekend.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 2

Bonagura: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Oregon

Both ESPN pundits now have the Big 12 earning two Playoff bids, and they both expect the Red Raiders to earn the 11th seed as the league runner-up after falling to Arizona State 26-22 in Week 8.

Bonagura and Schlabach are split on who Texas Tech would face in the first round, with Bonagura giving the No. 6 seed to the Bulldogs as the third-highest ranked SEC team while Schlabach has Oregon facing the Red Raiders as the third-highest ranked Big Ten team.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 3

Bonagura: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Ole Miss

The Cougars earn the 10th seed — as well as the midseason lead in the Big 12 championship race — after knocking off the rival Utes 24-21 on Saturday to remain undefeated on the season. Of course that could change in two weeks when BYU faces Texas Tech in Lubbock.

Despite Saturday’s road loss in Athens, Bonagura and Schlabach are both still in on Ole Miss earning the fourth and final of the SEC’s four Playoff bids, which could certainly impact whether or not Lane Kiffin remains in Oxford or is coaching elsewhere next season.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 4

Bonagura: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Georgia Tech
Schlabach: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Georgia Tech

The ESPN prognosticators are once again in sync with their fourth first-round game projection, which would effectively be a rematch of their expected ACC Championship Game matchup.

Miami was brought back to Earth with Friday night’s loss to Louisville, and, as such, is no longer in the driver’s seat to win the ACC. That designation now belongs to the seventh-ranked Yellow Jackets, which remained undefeated on the year after knocking off host Duke 27-18 on Saturday.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl

Bonagura: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama

After getting past the Big 12 champion Cougars, Bonagura has the Rebels facing the Big Ten runner-ups from Indiana in Dallas in an intriguing 2 vs. 7 matchup. As mentioned above, a prolonged Playoff run for Ole Miss would be welcomed news for a hungry Rebels fanbase eager to keep Kiffin in Oxford.

Schlabach projects an All-SEC rematch of the Week 5 showdown in which the Crimson Tide snapped the Bulldogs’ 33-game home win streak with a 24-21 loss in Athens. Alabama earns the fourth seed as the SEC runner-up in this projection while Georgia’s Kirby Smart gets a chance at revenge vs. the Tide.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4. Alabama
Schlabach: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana

The Orange Bowl becomes a true proving ground between the Big Ten and SEC in this projection, with Bonagura pitting the SEC runner-up Crimson Tide against the Ducks, which bounced back from last week’s upset loss to the Hoosiers with Saturday’s 56-10 win over Rutgers.

Meanwhile, Schlabach also projects that Indiana will secure the second-overall seed as the Big Ten runner-ups only to square off against Lane Kiffin and the Rebels in Miami. It would be an interesting pairing between two of the most coveted coaching candidates in this year’s carousel.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 8 Georgia Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Miami vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Bongura goes straight chalk with his first-round games, while Schlabach projects a little ACC upset in their 8 vs. 9 matchup ahead of a difficult showdown vs. No. 1 seeded Ohio State as the Big Ten champions.

Bonagura pits the currently undefeated Yellow Jackets against the reigning national champions in the Granddaddy of Them All, while Schlabach went the other way and gives the nod to Carson Beck and the Hurricanes, who get revenge for the ACC title game loss.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Texas A&M

Both Bonagura and Schlabach expect Texas A&M will continue its run through the SEC en route to winning its first-ever SEC championship to secure the Playoff’s third overall seed in Mike Elko’s second season in College Station.

It’s the Aggies’ quarterfinal opponent where they differ, as Bonagura projects an All-SEC Sugar Bowl quarterfinal against the sixth-seeded Bulldogs. Meanwhile, Schlabach expects Oregon to get the nod in New Orleans against the SEC champion Aggies.

CFP National Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State

What would the College Football Playoff be without Alabama and Ohio State playing each other for a trip to the CFP national championship game? Both project the Crimson Tide could be the SEC’s best chance to upend the Buckeyes’ bid to be the first back-to-back national champ since Georgia in 2021-22.

In addition to the must-see SEC vs. Big Ten national semifinal, this Fiesta Bowl matchup would also pit Ohio State QB Julian Sayin against the team he originally signed with as a Five-Star Plus+ recruit prior to transferring following Nick Saban’s retirement announcement in early 2024.

CFP National Semifinal at Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana

Finally, a quarterfinal upset! Schlabach goes against the grain and projects the Ducks will knock off the SEC champion Aggies in the Sugar Bowl to set up an All-Big Ten showdown in Atlanta. This would be another regular-season rematch after the Hoosiers upset host Oregon 30-20 in Week 7.

Meanwhile, Bonagura goes chalk again to set up the SEC’s last chance to avoid a potential third-straight national champion from the Big Ten as Texas A&M would matchup against Indiana in an unlikely battle of second-year head coaches with a trip to the national title game on the line.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Both ESPN prognosticators are still all-in on an All-Big Ten national championship game matchup between the reigning champion Buckeyes and the Hoosiers, which opened a lot of eyes with last week’s road upset in Eugene.

Bonagura and Schlabach agree the two most dominant teams through the first eight weeks of the regular season will ultimately be there in the end to secure the Big Ten a third-consecutive national champion regardless of which team ultimately hoists the trophy in Miami.

ESPN’s full 2025 bowl slate predictions

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: California vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Temple
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Buffalo

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Navy vs. NC State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Wake Forest

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Temple vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Troy
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Utah State vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: San Diego State vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Central Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Nebraska
Schlabach: TCU vs. Minnesota

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Army vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Miami (Ohio)

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: NC State vs. Memphis

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. Houston
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Cincinnati

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Arizona
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Appalachian State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas
Schlabach: Virginia vs. Tennessee

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Houston vs. Oklahoma

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Memphis vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Florida State vs. UConn

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Louisiana Tech

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. USC
Schlabach: Arizona State vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. California

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Auburn

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Washington
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Utah