Greg McElroy makes bold prediction for Georgia vs. Texas game, key factors

Greg McElroy isn’t afraid to go against the grain, and ahead of this Saturday night’s epic Top 10 showdown between No. 5 Georgia and No. 10 Texas, the former Alabama quarterback — and Lonestar State product — is doing it again by boldly picking the Longhorns to pull off the road upset in Athens.

In a battle between two of this season’s brightest first-year starting quarterbacks, McElroy is hitching his wagon to Texas superstar Arch Manning to play “the best game of his career” Saturday night and outduel Georgia counterpart Gunner Stockton in a game with serious College Football Playoff implications.

“I’m taking Texas to win the game. I think Texas has a slightly higher ceiling on the offensive side than we’ve seen so far,” McElroy said on Tuesday’s episode of the Always College Football podcast. “We saw it in a gotta-have-it situation against Oklahoma (when) the offense played smart, they were able to establish the run, and Arch Manning, I think, will play the best game of his career on arguably the biggest stage of his career when he takes his team into a hostile setting, and potentially hands the Georgia Bulldogs their second loss of the year.”

McElroy is clearly buying into the improvement made by Manning in recent weeks after the first-year starter combined for 674 yards and six touchdowns to one interception on 70.9-percent passing in back-to-back wins over Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.

“Steve Sarkisian is going to put together a plan in place that will probably lean on the quick game, will try to get Arch Manning into a nice rhythm early, and I think Arch in this game needs to be very calm, needs to be surgical, needs to be opportunistic when using his legs,” McElroy said. “He also needs to avoid trying to make those off-balance throws, that’s what Georgia’s defense always seems to force, and those off-balance throws can be off target, and that’s when Georgia can make plays on the ball.”

The Longhorns are coming off their second bye of the season, while the Bulldogs are riding high off their most complete game of the season in last Saturday’s 41-21 road drubbing of Mississippi State. Powered by a career-best 181 rushing yards from sophomore Nate Frazier, Georgia’s beleagured ground game broke out with a season-high 303 rushing yards and 6.9 yards-per-carry average.

“They looked really impressive offensively, they have kind of all year, but it was perhaps the best the run game’s looked all year (as) they went for over 300 yards on the ground,” McElroy said. “Nate Frazier became the bellcow last week. There were times when it’s been him and (Chauncey) Bowens, and you weren’t really sure who was going to be the guy. (It was) Bowens at times after a fumble became the guy, and now Frazier’s back in good standing.”

McElroy then pointed out that Georgia’s desire to establish the run does play into the strength of Texas’ SEC-leading rush defense, which is holding opponents to just 78.22 rushing yards per game this season to rank second nationally behind only Texas Tech.

“It is a physical, fast and disciplined unit that is designed specifically to shut down the opponent’s rushing attack,” McElroy added.

Given that point, McElroy suggested Stockton will have to spark the Bulldogs offense both through the air and with his legs Saturday if Georgia’s going to avoid another SEC home upset like it had against Alabama earlier this season. McElroy pointed to Stockton’s five-total touchdown game in the Bulldogs’ last home game, a 43-35 victory against Ole Miss.

Because, ultimately, Saturday’s game in Athens comes down to which first-year SEC starting QB shines the brightest under the lights inside Sanford Stadium.

“Which QB do you trust more? Do you trust the ceiling you get with Arch Manning knowing he can make any throw on the football field?” McElroy concluded. “Or do you trust Gunner Stockton, who’s been very, very steady all season long, but will be going against a better defense than what Georgia will put up against Arch Manning?”