How Power 4 is expected to change title game tie-breakers after ACC debacle with Duke

No. 10 Miami officially became the lowest-seeded team to qualify for the College Football Playoff national championship game in the CFP’s 12-year history following Thursday night’s thrilling 31-27 win over No. 6 Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl. But, if a particular document signed in 2024 had been in effect this season, the Hurricanes wouldn’t have even been in this season’s 12-team field.

That 2024 document is a now-infamous memorandum of understanding signed between the CFP and the Power Four conferences and independent Notre Dame that guarantees the Fighting Irish a spot in the 12-team Playoff field if it is ranked among the Top 12 beginning in 2026. That agreement also cements automatic bids for all Power Four conference champions in addition to the highest-ranked non-power conference champion.

Were those parameters in place for the 2025 season, Miami wouldn’t have even made the 12-team field, with Notre Dame securing the No. 10 seed and final at-large bid despite a head-to-head loss to the Hurricanes in Week 1 of the regular season. The MOU would also have locked up a bid for 2025 ACC champion Duke (9-5), despite the five-loss Blue Devils finishing the season unranked.

Given that unenviable potential scenario moving forward, ESPN insider Heather Dinich expects each Power Four conferences to come together this offseason to adjust their tie-breaker scenarios to better align with the CFP rankings, likely awarding conference championship game bids to each league’s two highest-ranked teams at the end of the regular season.

“I expect all Power Four conferences this winter to reevaluate their (title game) tie-breaker scenarios to try to get on the same page with those and use the CFP rankings,” Dinich said Friday morning on ESPN’s Get Up.

Dinich’s revelation came amid a discussion about the future of the College Football Playoff, which has been flirting with expanding from 12 to 16 teams since last Summer. Dinich said there’s momentum for further expansion to take place, though it’ll require the leaders of the Big Ten and SEC finally agreeing on a single format proposal after arguing over it for the past 10 months.

“My sense from talking to sources is there’s more momentum than ever to go to a 16 team field, possibly as soon as 2026, if SEC commissioner Greg Sankey and Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti can agree to it,” Dinich added Friday morning. “And right now, that stalemate still exists. Those two men have the bulk of control over the future format (of the CFP), and the deadline is at the end of the month in order to change it if they are going to. If they cannot agree, it will stay at 12 for now.”