Predicting the third 2025 College Football Playoff Top 25, 12-team CFP Bracket

The third edition of the 2025 College Football Playoff rankings will debut on Tuesday night, when the selection committee reveals its updated look at things. But before that, On3 is here to offer some projections of what that might look like.

Plenty of teams have stated their case for a potential playoff bid at this point. And while there’s still a good deal of football left to be played, we have a pretty good idea who might rank where.

So who benefited from the last week of college football action and who was penalized? Here is our look at the projected third College Football Playoff rankings following Week 12.

A CFP Rankings Reminder

Keep in mind that the College Football Playoff format has shifted slightly this season. Whereas in the first edition of the 12-team playoff the four highest-ranked conference champions were guaranteed a first-round bye, they no longer are.

Also, simply being in the top 12 of the rankings does not guarantee a spot in the playoff. A power conference champion ranked outside the top 12 remains guaranteed a spot, while the highest-ranked Group of Six champion will also be guaranteed a spot in the playoff bracket. Those teams can potentially bump a team in the top 12 out of the bracket.

Projected College Football Playoff Rankings – Top 25

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0)*

Ohio State cruised this weekend, making short work of a UCLA team that fired its head coach weeks ago. Julian Sayin remained sharp at quarterback. If there are any concerns coming out of the game, they were about injuries.

Jeremiah Smith exited the game early and Carnell Tate never played. And while coach Ryan Day explained he doesn’t have any long-term worries, until they’re both fully back it’ll be easy to wonder how close to full strength the Buckeyes really are.

2. Indiana Hoosiers (11-0)

Like Ohio State, Indiana had a ho-hum win over a Wisconsin team that hasn’t put up much of a fight against the majority of its schedule. Easy cruising for Fernando Mendoza and company.

One of the few teams that has a bye week on the penultimate week of the season, Indiana now gets a chance to rest and get healthier ahead of the regular season finale at Purdue. Win that one and a playoff berth is essentially assured.

3. Texas A&M Aggies (10-0)*

Texas A&M gave its fanbase the biggest collective heart attack this weekend, going down 30-3 against South Carolina early on. That was a result that, should it have held, could have seriously put a dent in the team’s playoff chances.

Instead, Marcel Reed shook off a poor start and played excellently the rest of the way. Texas A&M overcame the whole deficit and managed to win the game, remaining unbeaten. And that should pretty much sew up a playoff berth, with only games against Samford and Texas remaining.

4. Georgia Bulldogs (9-1)

Georgia has quietly powered its way into a potential bye spot when it comes to the College Football Playoff. The Bulldogs are deserving, too, having dominated most opponents and lost only to a very good Alabama team.

That said, Georgia is one of the few teams toward the top of this playoff mix that still has a challenge remaining. On top of a potential conference title game, the Bulldogs still face in-state rival Georgia Tech in the regular season finale.

5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1)*

Texas Tech remains the favorite to win the Big 12, though it’s still a pretty wide open race at this point. In terms of the regular season, though, the Red Raiders only have West Virginia left on the slate.

That’s a pretty good bet to reach 11-1 with a shot at the conference crown. Take care of business and there’s even a decent chance that Texas Tech could slip into bye positioning should someone else slip up.

6. Ole Miss Rebels (10-1)

Like Texas Tech, Ole Miss is a team that is pretty much all set to make the playoff field barring a disaster at this point. The Rebels remain in SEC title game contention, too.

All things considered, managing a rivalry game — even on the road in Starkville — is something you have to be able to handle if you’re a playoff team. Ole Miss gets a full week to rest and recharge before then, too.

7. Oregon Ducks (9-1)

Oregon has one of the trickier roads remaining for potential College Football Playoff teams. While the Ducks will probably avoid a conference title game, they still have games remaining against USC and at Washington.

Those are two games that could easily provide a legitimate challenge for the Ducks. Can Oregon get up for a big game better than it did earlier this year against Indiana? We’ll see, starting this week against the Trojans.

8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-2)

Notre Dame put together an eighth straight win this week, this time over a ranked Pittsburgh team. That will help it in the eyes of the committee going forward. Meanwhile, both losses to Miami and Texas A&M continue to retain their quality.

It’d be an interesting thought experiment to see where Notre Dame might rank if either of those games had been in the middle of the schedule rather than up front. For Fighting Irish fans, it doesn’t matter. Notre Dame is in position to earn a playoff berth if it keeps winning.

9. Oklahoma Sooners (8-2)

Oklahoma’s overall outlook hasn’t changed a whole lot from a week ago, except that it’s now more solidly in the field than before. But the fact was that Oklahoma had to keep winning to remain a playoff team, and that holds true even after the win over Alabama.

And the rest of the way won’t be easy. Up next is a Missouri team that looks resilient even without starting quarterback Beau Pribula. Then it’s an LSU team playing for pride (and possibly a better bowl game) at season’s end.

10. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2)

Alabama’s loss didn’t cripple its College Football Playoff chances, but it did probably ruin the team’s shot at a first-round bye. Still, there’s still everything to play for in Tuscaloosa going forward.

A game against Eastern Illinois should be a chance to rest whatever players need it before the showdown at Auburn to close the campaign. Alabama likely must win out to remain in contention at this point.

11. BYU Cougars (9-1)

BYU might need to avoid a second loss regardless of where it comes, even if it were in the Big 12 title game. In any case, it at least needs to win the next two to remain in good position to qualify for the field.

A road trip to Cincinnati this week will be the biggest challenge for the team since it dropped a clunker to Texas Tech. Can BYU rally and reiterate that it’s worthy of a playoff spot with only a couple weeks left to play?

12. Utah Utes (8-2)

Utah is in a very interesting spot, in that it might be able to slip into the back half of the playoff even if it doesn’t reach the Big 12 title game. Might be able to. It’s going to be razor-thin margins.

For its part, Utah has games against Kansas and at Kansas State remaining. Win both of those and a 10-2 team with losses only to Texas Tech and BYU should have a chance to make the playoff field.

Rest of the CFP Rankings: 13-25

13. Vanderbilt Commodores (8-2)
14. Miami Hurricanes (8-2)*
15. Texas Longhorns (7-3)
16. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-1)
17. USC Trojans (8-2)
18. Michigan Wolverines (8-2)
19. Virginia Cavaliers (9-2)
20. Tennessee Volunteers (7-3)
21. North Texas Mean Green (9-1)*
22. Missouri Tigers (7-3)
23. James Madison Dukes (9-1)*
24. Houston Cougars (8-2)
25. Tulane Green Wave (8-2)

* Indicates projected conference champion

First-Round Byes – College Football Playoff

1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Indiana Hoosiers
3. Texas A&M Aggies
4. Georgia Bulldogs

Again, unlike last season, the first-round byes are not guaranteed to the four highest-ranked conference champions. That means whichever teams are ranked 1-4 will earn a bye. We still have the Big Ten and the SEC splitting this year’s first-round byes at the moment, though the teams have changed.

First-Round College Football Playoff Matchups

5. Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. 12. North Texas Mean Green
   Last week we had a Texas Tech vs. Texas matchup in the 7 vs. 10 game in the College Football Playoffs. This week we get Texas Tech against North Texas, which we’re projecting as the top Group of Six conference champion. It would be a nice regional matchup to kick things off.
   
6. Ole Miss Rebels vs. 11. Miami Hurricanes
   Ole Miss was projected to take on the ACC champion a week ago, which was Georgia Tech. But Miami has jumped in front after last week’s CFP rankings course-corrected a bit. This would give us an intriguing matchup with two teams that have utilized the transfer portal quite well.
   
7. Oregon Ducks vs. 10. Alabama Crimson Tide
   Alabama drops out of a first-round bye spot this week and falls into the role of playing on the road in the first round. A first-round matchup at Oregon would be an exceptionally tough draw. But that’s what happens when you leave things to chance, as Alabama’s loss to Oklahoma did.
   
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. 9. Oklahoma Sooners
   Notre Dame has moved up a spot in this week’s projections, which is important because it now puts the Fighting Irish in position to host a home playoff game. Oklahoma surges into the field but would get the touch matchup in the first round.