This one wasn’t easy for Rece Davis. On Thursday, the ESPN analyst revealed his pick in the <a href="https://www.on3.com/teams/florida-state-seminoles/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Florida State</a>–<a href="https://www.on3.com/college/duke-blue-devils/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Duke</a> matchup on Saturday. <a href="https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/search" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">According to FanDuel</a>, the Seminoles are 14.5-point favorites in the outing.



“This might be the pick that I’m least convicted about on the board because everything in me says take Florida State,” Davis said. “I’m really high on Florida State, as everybody knows here, and lay the points [on FSU], but Duke is so tough.



“[Duke has] won four games by 20 [or more] points while giving up less than 10. They lead the ACC in yards per attempt rushing, and you can run on Florida State a little bit. But, I wonder if Florida State doesn’t believe you can throw on them at all, are they going to sell out to stop the run?”



Duke’s throwing game is certainly questionable. With QB1 <a href="https://www.on3.com/db/riley-leonard-100526/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Riley Leonard</a> still out due to an injury he sustained against <a href="https://www.on3.com/teams/notre-dame-fighting-irish/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Notre Dame</a>, <a href="https://www.on3.com/db/henry-belin-47948/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Henry Belin IV</a> is the Blue Devils’ starting quarterback. While the redshirt freshman boosted Duke to a 24-3 win over <a href="https://www.on3.com/teams/nc-state-wolfpack/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">NC State</a> in Week 7, he didn’t achieve much through the air.



Belin completed just 4-of-his-12 pass attempts in the win for 107 yards and two touchdowns while throwing an interception. Duke relied heavily on its ground game, grinding out 194 rushing yards in the victory.



<h2 id="h-duke-is-desperate-for-riley-leonard-s-return">Duke is desperate for Riley Leonard’s return</h2>



As Davis mentioned, FSU does have some hole in its rushing defense. The Seminoles allow 141.3 rushing yards per game, ranking No. 69 in the country. Despite any FSU weakness, Davis believes Duke cannot win this game without Leonard healthy.



“I’m sort of assuming that Riley doesn’t play,” Davis said. “The whole dynamic shifts if he’s able to. And he’s also got to be healthy because if. Riley Leonard can play but he can’t run then it’s not really the same thing.”



History isn’t on Duke’s side, either. Florida State is 19-0 all-time against the Blue Devils, most recently defeating Duke 56-35 in 2020. Davis is impressed by what Duke head coach <a href="https://www.on3.com/db/coach/mike-elko-132763/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Mike Elko</a> has built, but he isn’t willing to gamble on the Blue Devils.



“I want to take Duke in the points but I can’t do it,” Davis said. “Their defense is terrific. Their running game is terrific. But, with Riley Leonard out or presumably less than 100% and no real data to support a threat in the passing game from Belin, I’m going to take Florida State and lay the points.”



The two ACC programs will face off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. The game will be broadcast on ABC.

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Rece Davis makes his pick on Florida State vs. Duke

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