Keys: Louisville takes on Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl
Louisville looks to enter 2026 with a Boca Raton Bowl win over Toledo. The Cardinals and Rockets both finished the regular season with an 8-4 record and enter the matchup taking it seriously as a regular-season game.
After beating Kentucky 41-0 on November 29th, Louisville has seen minor roster movement. Rene Konga and Wesley Bailey are the biggest names to opt out for the Cardinals, while Toledo has their main core intact.
Louisville quarterback Miller Moss has dealt with a foot injury since mid-November but has decided to play. The Cardinals will be missing top wide receiver Chris Bell due to a torn ACL, and are looking to get healthy in the backfield.
Toledo will be without head coach Jason Candle after recently taking a job at UConn. Quarterbacks coach and co-offensive coordinator Robert Weiner will take over the interim duties as the Rockets wait to bring in new head coach Mike Jacobs.
Fueled by a hard-hitting defense, Toledo is preparing to face their toughest opponent of the season.
“I think it’s a great opportunity for all these guys. When you play in a bowl game, normally it’s the only game on TV, and you get a chance to show what you can do. There’s a lot of eyes watching, and we’re hopeful that a lot of our really talented players will step up and play well,” Brohm added.
RELATED — Opposition in-depth: Boca Raton Bowl, vs. Toledo
Louisville needs to establish the run game
Louisville finds success when it can run the ball, averaging 5.07 yards per carry, good for 23rd in the nation. In a win over Kentucky, the Cardinals had 50 rushing attempts for 258 yards, good for 5.2 yards per carry. The week prior, Louisville had 29 rushing attempts for 128 yards in a 38-6 loss to SMU.
Toledo’s 8th-ranked rushing defense gives up 89.3 rushing yards per game. Linebacker K’Von Sherman led the Rockets with 85 tackles, while defensive linemen Martez Poynter and Malachi Davis both secured 5.5 sacks this season. This powerful group up front is backed by all-American safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, who caused 5 turnovers this year.
In Toledo’s four losses, opponents averaged 133.25 rushing yards per game, significantly over their usual average. If Louisville can establish its run game, it has a great possibility of leaving victorious.
Isaac Brown, Duke Watson, and Keyjuan Brown have missed significant time for the Cardinals but could be nearing a return. The possibility that all three play in the bowl game is unlikely, but at least one coming back would be a huge addition to this offense.
Shaun Boykins and Braxton Jennings both hit the century mark in yards against Kentucky and have combined for 390 yards this season. With uncertainty regarding the three lead backs, Boykins and Jennings have a big opportunity to step up.
“We’ll see, I’m not going to rule any of them out, I’m not going to say they are ready to go yet either… I’m hopeful that one of the three can play, and if more than that would be great, but we’ll see as we get closer to the action,” said Brohm.
Louisville secondary stepping up
Toledo has been hot and cold in the pass game. Fifth-year quarterback Tucker Gleason has thrown for 2,515 yards, 21 touchdowns, and nine interceptions this season, but will likely sit out due to injury. Redshirt freshman Kaelib Osborne is set to start in his place, bringing a different dynamic to the Rockets with his running ability. Osborne has averaged over six yards per carry and has also thrown for over 200 yards and two touchdowns.
Still, when Toledo isn’t able to move the ball through the air, it struggles as a whole. The Louisville secondary will need to prioritize forcing turnovers and not allowing star wide receivers Junior Vandeross and Trayvon Rudolph to get separation.
Louisville’s passing defense has done a great job this season, allowing 190.6 yards per game, good for 27th in the country. Defensive backs D’Angelo Hutchinson and JoJo Evans lead the secondary in tackles, while Tayon Holloway is coming off a two-interception performance. All three will need to be elite to stop this Toledo passing attack.
Protecting the football
Toledo had seven fumble recoveries and 13 interceptions this season, good for 25th in the country for turnovers gained. Safeties Braden Awls and Nasir Bowers combined for seven of the interceptions to lead the Rockets’ secondary.
Louisville averages 1.33 turnovers per game, ranking 75th in the nation, including seven interceptions in 11 games for Moss. Coming off one of his best games of the season, the senior quarterback had four total touchdowns with zero turnovers against Kentucky.
If the run game can establish itself early, Moss will need to be clinical, throwing the ball with limited mistakes. Moss has played the best on the road, throwing for 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
“Toledo has played good football over the years…they have a really good defense, reminds me quite a bit of James Madison. They have athleticism and have talent at some key positions that you have to have,” Brohm said.
The Baca Raton bowl will be a battle of which offense shows up against these elite defenses. Louisville is slightly favored, but anything is possible.
