Texas had lowest postgame win expectancy of any team that won in Week 8

Kentucky outplayed Texas on the field Saturday night at Kroger Field, but unfortunately for the Wildcats, the only numbers that mattered were the ones on the scoreboard. What are the off-the-field numbers saying about Kentucky the morning after, though?
ESPN updated both its Football Power Index (FPI) and SP+ Rankings on Sunday morning to reflect this week’s results across the country. After losing to the Lognhorns in overtime 16-13, Kentucky dropped one spot to No. 51 in the FPI, but actually jumped a couple of spots in the SP+ to No. 60. Meanwhile, Texas held steady in the FPI at No. 7 while sliding down one spot to No. 11 in the SP+.
With Kentucky now sitting on a 2-4 record halfway through the season, the FPI projects the ‘Cats will finish with an average win-loss record of 4.3-7.7. UK has just a 13.2 percent chance to reach the six-win threshold, per the FPI, and a minuscule 0.1 percent chance to win out.
Looking at the SP+ Rankings, Kentucky grades out as having the nation’s 79th-best offense, the 38th-best defense, and the 45th-best special teams unit. The metric ranks UK as having the ninth-hardest schedule in college football, too. To make matters worse, the SP+ numbers say Texas had the lowest postgame win expectancy of any win in Week 8 at just 16.1 percent, meaning the numbers after the fact say Kentucky had an 83.9 percent chance of winning — that stings.
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Heartbreak
Kentucky loses to Texas in OT
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Below is where Kentucky’s remaining opponents rank among the FPI and SP+:
OPPONENT | FOOTBALL POWER INDEX | SP+ RANKINGS |
vs. Tennessee | 13 | 18 |
@ Auburn | 23 | 29 |
vs. Florida | 29 | 38 |
vs. Tennessee Tech | N/A | N/A |
@ Vanderbilt | 18 | 15 |
@ Louisville | 25 | 24 |
Outside of the four lost fumbles (all of which were recovered), Kentucky had Texas’ number in most statistical categories. Cutter Boley looked like the better quarterback compared to Arch Manning, Kentucky more than doubled Texas in yards gained (395-179), and the time of possession was dominated by UK (39:23 to 20:37). ESPN Analytics gave the ‘Cats a 59.9 percent chance of winning when the score was tied 10-10 with 4:41 to go in the fourth quarter.
But Kentucky once again failed to punch in two offensive touchdowns with Bush Hamdan coaching the offense. UK turned the ball over on downs on its first overtime possession, allowing Texas to knock in the game-winning field goal.
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