Gas and Brakes: Texas' best and worst case scenario for the 2023 season
‘All Gas, No Brakes’ has been Steve Sarkisian‘s motto even before his arrival to Texas. Today we’ll use that as our template for the best and worst case scenario for the upcoming season.
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Sark’s first season featured more brakes than gas, especially in the second halves of games when his offense sputtered and his defense was running on empty. His second season saw more full tanks but at times the team looked stuck in neutral, especially on offense. There’s a great deal of context we’ve chronicled for why these seasons occurred, but the fact remains, we’ve yet to see the textbook version of the motto — the one we saw when he was at Alabama.
What we’ve learned between Sark’s time at Alabama and Texas is, while his schemes are amazing at creating big play opportunities and formationing players into advantages, he has lacked the personnel to consistently put points on the board, not just game to game but half to half. That should not be the case this year. Along with much improved defense for Year 1 to Year 2, offensive personnel is the driving force behind the Texas preseason hype.
The Gas: 11-1, Big 12 Champions, College Football Playoffs
Don’t discount the defense entering the season with a strong, experienced nucleus in Year 3 with the same staff and concepts. If we see brakes this season, it should come from that side of the ball applying them to the opposing offense. However, for Texas to truly break through and win the conference after a very long drought, it’s going to have to be driven by the passing attack and second-year quarterback Quinn Ewers.
If you’ve been reading offseason reports, Inside Texas is bullish on the strides Ewers has made, even dating back to Alamo Bowl practices, but that’s not to say he’ll be a finished product in 2023. He shouldn’t have to be, though, with a fantastic and experienced accompaniment including Xavier Worthy, AD Mitchell, Jordan Whittington, and Ja’Tavion Sanders. The explosive starting receivers have explosive receivers waiting in the wings for depth. The passing game should be good.
With the loss of Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, the running game is going to need to be driven by an improved offensive line. Last year Texas’ first five started all 13 games together. A very good ‘worst case’ scenario is Kyle Flood‘s ability to run those five back. That might end up being the best case, too, but part of this exercise is determining the floor and ceiling for the season.
To a chorus of boos last season, I said 2022 was The Year Before The Year. This was mainly due to the roster cycle. With the personnel improvements, including the addition of five starter quality transfers, my convictions regarding this season have only hardened. Texas is on a strong roster cycle for 2023.
That’s the internal look at Texas’ season. The external look is just as promising as the Big 12 is not going to be as good in 2023 as it was in 2022. It’ll only get worse in 2024.
The Brakes: 8-4, Big 12 underachievers
My worst case scenario has zero to do with the ‘lost decade’. Anyone who cites Texas’ inability to win because late stage Mack Brown, Charlie Strong, and Tom Herman didn’t is a buffoon. Discount them.
But things can always go wrong in sports outside of the obvious — injuries. Let’s take a look at some potential downside risk.
Texas could have trouble running the ball. Even though I anticipate Sark choosing to spread to run more than running to throw play-action, I do wonder if muscle memory will take over in crunch time. If Texas is unable to hit deep shots, whether through inaccuracy or defenses not being forced to devote numbers to the run game, Texas’ win total will drop. Ultimately, that’s why Ewers’ improvement is the key to the season.
If Ewers isn’t improved as much as anticipated, that will bring down the win total, especially if they can’t rely on the running game. While I think it’s plausible the running game could be as productive as last year due to compensating factors, it’s also plausible the run could struggle without Robinson and Johnson serving as creators rather than beneficiaries.
None of our information suggests the defense will take a step back, but they did lose a number of good players. Will they be as stout up the middle without Keondre Coburn and Moro Ojomo? I think so, at least when the starters are in, but depth isn’t quite as good as last year.
Without a true pressure presence at Edge, will the defense create enough pressure to assist the secondary on 3rd and 4th down? Again, I think so, but I don’t know it for sure.
There are a number of aspects that could go wrong this season, I just don’t think each one individually is likely. Still, we have to explore that potential.
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