Your favorite team signing a top-50 recruit? Recent history says about a third of them will transfer
Congratulations are in order if your favorite team is set to sign an On3 Consensus national top-50 recruit during the early signing period (or on National Signing Day).
But be warned: Going by recent history, almost one-third of the players of that stature end up in the transfer portal. And a lot of those are five-star prospects.
We looked at the On3 Consensus top-50 recruits in the signing classes of 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021, and found that 64 have transferred at least once (that’s 32 percent). There were 21 from 2018, 18 from ’19, 13 from ’20 and 12 from ’21.
Almost 61 percent of those who have transferred (39 of 64) were five-star prospects (it’s actually 60.9 percent). And given that there are 32 five-star recruits a year, that means a bit more than 30 percent of the five-star signees in those four classes have moved on from their original school.
The reasons for leaving are varied: coaching change, looking for a better fit, lack of playing time, being urged to move on. That doesn’t change the figures, though.
The transfers have had varying levels of success. Caleb Williams won the Heisman this season. Justin Fields was the No. 11 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Drew Sanders was a first-team All-SEC pick this season and is projected by some to go in the first round of the 2023 draft. Zach Charbonnet, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix put up big numbers this season. For the most part, though, the majority of the transfers have become role players at their new schools. And there have been a handful of these transfers who haven’t done anything.
As for the 2022 class – you know, the one that just finished its true freshman season – four already have entered the transfer portal.
Here’s a breakdown by class; five-star recruits are marked with an asterisk.
2021 (12)
| Rank, player | The transfer |
| 3. QB Quinn Ewers* | Ohio State to Texas |
| 6. OT Tommy Brockermeyer* | Alabama to undecided |
| 7. QB Caleb Williams* | Oklahoma to USC |
| 20. OT Kingsley Suamataia* | Oregon to BYU |
| 23. DL Keeshawn Silver* | North Carolina to undecided |
| 26. LB Clayton Smith* | Oklahoma to undecided |
| 33. WR Mario Williams | Oklahoma to USC |
| 37. WR Agiye Hall | Alabama to Texas |
| 40. RB Camar Wheaton | Alabama to SMU |
| 41. EDGE Tunmise Adeleye | Texas A&M to undecided |
| 42. QB Jaxson Dart | USC to Ole Miss |
| 44. WR JoJo Earle | Alabama to TCU |
2020 (13)
| Rank, player | The transfer |
| 5. TE Arik Gilbert* | LSU to Georgia |
| 6. LB Justin Flowe* | Oregon to Arizona |
| 12. QB D.J. Uiagalelei* | Clemson to undecided |
| 13. RB Zach Evans* | TCU to Ole Miss |
| 18. CB Eli Ricks* | LSU to Alabama |
| 19. CB Tony Grimes* | North Carolina to undecided |
| 21. RB Demarkcus Bowman* | Clemson to Florida to UCF |
| 23. WR Demond Demas* | Texas A&M to undecided |
| 27. LB Drew Sanders* | Alabama to Arkansas |
| 33. OL Myles Hinton | Stanford to Michigan |
| 35. CB Demorie Tate | Florida State to undecided |
| 43. WR Jordan Johnson | Notre Dame to UCF to undecided |
| 46. RB MarShawn Lloyd | South Carolina to undecided |
2019 (18)
| Rank, player | The transfer |
| 3. WR Jadon Haselwood* | Oklahoma to Arkansas |
| 9. DL Antonio Alfano* | Alabama to Colorado to junior college |
| 10. RB Trey Sanders* | Alabama to undecided |
| 15. QB Spencer Rattler* | Oklahoma to South Carolina |
| 16. OT Logan Brown* | Wisconsin to Kansas |
| 18. OL Clay Webb* | Georgia to Jacksonville State |
| 19. WR Bru McCoy* | USC to Texas to USC to Tennessee |
| 20. OT Wanya Morris* | Tennessee to Oklahoma |
| 23. WR Theo Wease* | Oklahoma to Missouri |
| 28. LB Marcel Brooks* | LSU to TCU |
| 32. QB Bo Nix* | Auburn to Oregon |
| 36. CB Tyrique Stevenson | Georgia to Miami |
| 37. OL Devontae Dobbs | Michigan State to Memphis |
| 39. OL Pierce Quick | Alabama to Georgia Tech |
| 41. CB Chris Steele | Florida to USC |
| 42. RB Zach Charbonnet | Michigan to UCLA |
| 43. WR Frank Ladson | Clemson to Miami |
| 50. QB Jayden Daniels | Arizona State to LSU |
2018 (21)
| Rank, player | The transfer |
| 2. QB Justin Fields* | Georgia to Ohio State |
| 3. EDGE Eyabi Okie* | Alabama to UT-Martin to Michigan |
| 7. WR Justin Shorter* | Penn State to Florida |
| 14. QB JT Daniels* | USC to Georgia to West Virginia to undecided |
| 16. EDGE Brenton Cox* | Georgia to Florida |
| 17. S B.J. Foster* | Texas to Sam Houston State |
| 18. LB Palaie Gaoteote IV* | USC to Ohio State |
| 22. OL Cade Mays* | Georgia to Tennessee |
| 24. DB Tyreke Johnson* | Ohio State to Nebraska |
| 25. CB Derion Kendrick* | Clemson to Georgia |
| 27. RB Lorenzo Lingard* | Miami to Florida to undecided |
| 28. RB Ricky Slade* | Penn State to Old Dominion |
| 31. WR Devon Williams* | USC to Oregon |
| 33. DB Bookie Radley-Hiles | Oklahoma to Washington |
| 35. LB Teradja Mitchell | Ohio State to undecided |
| 36. S Jaiden Lars-Woodbey | Florida State to Boston College |
| 38. RB Jaelen Gill | Ohio State to Boston College |
| 40. DB Jalen Green | Texas to Mississippi State |
| 44. CB Kelvin Joseph | LSU to Kentucky |
| 46. QB Joey Gatewood | Auburn to Kentucky to UCF to undecided |
| 49. TE Luke Ford | Georgia to Illinois |
Note: Okie was known as Eyabi Anoma until this year.
The four 2022 top-50 recruits who already are in the portal: No. 2 ATH Travis Hunter (transferring from Jackson State); No. 23 CB Denver Harris (Texas A&M); No. 24 WR Chris Marshall (Texas A&M); and No. 36 WR Aaron Anderson (Alabama to LSU). The first three were five-star prospects.