I overheard the same thing at the Hillsborough Deli this morning when I picked up my Christmas coffee. BTW Claire and Doreen wish all the guys a Merry Christmas.
OT: Significant snowstorm on Friday night into Saturday
- Thread starter Mikemarc
- Start date
I overheard the same thing at the Hillsborough Deli this morning when I picked up my Christmas coffee. BTW Claire and Doreen wish all the guys a Merry Christmas.
Thanks! And yes this is going to be a tough flu season, as the dominant influenza A, H3N2 subtype was not part of the vaccine mix this year, so the flu vaccine won't stop infections much, although is should still reduce its severity for most. Our son and his wife recently had the flu and it knocked them out for nearly a week. Hopefully, R&D can continue to improve the mRNA flu vaccines (they're great for reducing transmission/severity, but give people flu-like symptoms in many cases - moreso than the current flu vaccines, so that needs to be improved before they'd be approved), as these can be modified and updated to address circulating strains much more quickly, which would be huge.
https://www.prevention.com/health/a69839319/super-flu-spreading-us/
Meh never got a flu shot and maybe had the flu once in 10 years. Just wash your hands and don't walk in front of people coughing. My immune system is tremendous,
it tapers off in the morning 7-9ish or so but even then the tail end is spotty...you are in Hamilton? you likely miss out on the big snows and maybe deal with more sleet. Where are they coming from?
model mayham when it comes to the cut off of who gets what and it seems to be inching northward
Mike Masco and Steve Martino going big...overdone, IMO, but possible. Just added Lee Goldberg's call which is a bit more conservative, which I think is pretty good. As he said, the biggest question is how much sleet and how far N/E it makes it, as that will cut snow depth down. Onemore - here's TWC's forecast, which is also fairly aggressive. So maybe the NWS isn't too bullish? We'll see.
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Masco and Martino are likely going to bust...how can they put out 10 inches for central jersey given most modelling doesnt support that.
The euro seems to be a nice compromise from the nam and some others and the gfgs....would be a 3-6
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Monmouth / Hunterdon / Mercer and Middlesex counties now under winter weather advisories and a not a winter storm warning per channel 12 blotter .Masco and Martino are likely going to bust...how can they put out 10 inches for central jersey given most modelling doesnt support that.
The euro seems to be a nice compromise from the nam and some others and the gfgs....would be a 3-6
Means more sleet and heavier snow which sucks for people like me who still shovel ! lol.
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NWS-Philly now has advisories for everyone in EPA and most of NJ (3-5" of snow/sleet for Monmouth-Middlesex-Mercer-Somerset-Hunterdon and 1-3" of snow/sleet south of there), except for Morris, Warren and Sussex, which have warnings, plus NWS-NYC has warnings for everyone, including Union up to Bergen in NJ, SENY, NYC, LI and southern CT for 4-8". So my point/click for Metuchen is a general 4-8" (plus maybe another inch at the end), while my hourly weather graphic gives me 7.1", but the new advisory says 3-5" of snow/sleet and a glaze of ice and the maps haven't been updated. I have no idea what to think, although it might just be they haven't updated everything yet.
NWS finally updated their map, below, which shows Metuchen just about on the 6" line which kind of is within the 3-5" range for us in the advisory, but is also within the 4-8" range on my point and click. This snowfall map also makes sense with the warnings for ~6" for Morris/Warren and Sussex.
NWS finally updated their map, below, which shows Metuchen just about on the 6" line which kind of is within the 3-5" range for us in the advisory, but is also within the 4-8" range on my point and click. This snowfall map also makes sense with the warnings for ~6" for Morris/Warren and Sussex.
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Dog my a$$, you're really a cat aren't you with that kind of lifespan....
Agreed - we're doing a lot of that in this thread, lol. I think the finally just issued NWS map is reasonable and those other folks are likely to bust high, although it is still quite possible most of CNJ gets 6"+ (wouldn't take much of a change).Masco and Martino are likely going to bust...how can they put out 10 inches for central jersey given most modelling doesnt support that.
The euro seems to be a nice compromise from the nam and some others and the gfgs....would be a 3-6
A more detailed post....
Update: NWS has backed off a bit on snowfall amounts for most folks SW of about a Mt. Pocono to Long Branch line, due to sleet intrusion reducing snow accumulations (sleet is ~3x as dense as snow for the same mass), combined with more precip/snow falling NE of that line, and where NE of that line all snow is expected. I also included 3 other media source snowmaps: TWC, which is similar to the NWS, Mike Masco (Ch 11), who is very bullish on snow, and Lee Goldberg, who is between those two extremes.
Obviously, things can still change in either direction (more snow/less sleet or less snow/more sleet; plain rain is unlikely except for SENJ), since we're ~24 hours from the start of the storm late Friday afternoon with the heaviest snow/sleet falling from about 4-5 pm through 1-2 am. But even though "snow" forecasts have decreased, even areas that might get 2" of snow and 1" of sleet (3" depth) would actually be getting 5" worth of snow as frozen precip, since 1" of sleet is equivalent to 3" of snow, so those areas will still be impacted significantly wrt/roads and removal. One note: while models have trended sleetier and less snowy the past 12-18 hours, the models just coming out now are reversing that trend a bit, leading to more snow/less sleet for areas SW of that Mt. Pocono to Long Branch line; if that continues, forecasts may be bumped back up again.
So only Monroe (PA), Morris, Warren, Sussex and NENJ from Union up to Bergen are under warnings for about 4-8" of snow, while the next tier of counties bordering the warned counties is under advisories for about 3-5" snow/sleet, i.e., Monmouth, Middlesex, Mercer, Somerset, Hunterdon, and Carbon/Lehigh in PA with the next tier of counties to the SW in PA or S in NJ (from Bucks to Burlington to Ocean and SW/S of there through most of SEPA/SNJ) are under advisories for or 1-3" snow/sleet.
The county map shows warnings in pink and advisories in blue. One interesting point is that some media sources have also backed off a bit on snow due mostly to getting more sleet for some areas, while others are still very bullish on 6-10" of snow for most of NEPA/CNJ/NNJ/NYC. Lastly, time for my usual guess: I'll go with 6.1" vs. my NWS point and click of 5.7" (and our advisory of only 3-5").
https://www.weather.gov/phi
https://www.americanwx.com/.../62460-snow.../page/31/...
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And the updated NWS discussion if you want to see how the sausage gets made (wouldn't fit in my post above - 10,000 character limit, lol...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
315 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A winter storm will impact the area tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow
night. The main change with this update was upgrading the Winter
Storm Watches to either a Warning or an Advisory. In terms of change
to the forecast, snowfall amounts were not necessarily cut, but the
area of highest amounts was trimmed down area-wise to try and narrow
down where the mesoscale banding will set up. Amounts in the jackpot
zone generally have remained around 6 to 10 inches with this update,
with amounts south of the highest totals quickly falling off. The
gradient in snowfall amounts will be tight, making this a very
tricky forecast.
Getting into the meat and potatoes of the forecast, an area of low
pressure will move out of the Great Lakes, diving toward the Mid-
Atlantic and moving offshore by Saturday morning. As it passes, it
brings wintry precipitation to the area. Canadian high pressure will
be in place to start the day, locking in some low-level cold air
with a modest cold air damming pattern, especially over SE PA.
Precipitation moves in during the early to mid afternoon, starting
out as snow in most areas, with a gradual change over to freezing
rain and sleet depending on the location. Some locations, especially
in South Jersey and Delmarva, will change to all rain. A warm nose
aloft around 725-750 mb will move northward as the afternoon and
evening progress. Thinking that warm nose gets to about I-78, a bit
further north compared to previous updates. This will result in
periods of sleet cutting into snow totals over New Jersey and the I-
95 corridor. With low-level cold air over SE PA and Southern NJ
struggling to warm at the surface, a period of freezing rain is
expected with measurable ice anticipated.
North of I-78 and south of the Catskills, a mesoscale band will set
up, producing snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour. The timing for this
band moving through will be around 6 PM to 1 AM, give or take an
hour or so. Currently thinking the southern periphery of the heavy
banding will be over the I-80 corridor, impacting our northern tier
of counties (Warren/Morris/Sussex in NJ and Monroe in PA). The
Winter Storm Watch was converted to a Winter Storm Warning in these
counties as forecast amounts are 6 to 10". The warm nose aloft will
be trying to push into these zones, but thinking the strong dynamics
and lift will keep the precipitation type as mainly snow. NBM and
HREF Probabilities of hitting 6" or more was around 50-80%, so it is
not a slam dunk as the points of uncertainty and failure modes are
evident. If the heavier band sets up further north or south, these
areas likely see their totals cut in half. The same is true if the
warm nose moves further north. However, enough confidence exists to
go with a warning.
The forecast gets even more uncertain for central New Jersey and the
northern Lehigh Valley. There is high confidence in mixed
precipitation occuring, the question remains how much and how much
snow falls before the warm nose reaches this area. Current forecast
has about 2 to 5" or so of snow and sleet with a glaze of ice
possible in the Allentown area. The Winter Storm Watch in this area
was converted to a Winter Weather Advisory with lower, sub-warning
snow totals.
Around the Philly metro area and into South Jersey, 1 to 3 inches
are expected. Areas along and west of the Delaware River also see
some light icing, up to a 0.05" or so. Thinking the stronger
dynamics and colder air is more off to the north, limiting snow
totals with a brief period of snow and a prolonged period of sleet.
While less snow is expected, it will be quite messy with the
combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. The Winter Storm
Watch was converted to a Winter Weather Advisory in this area as
well.
Going further south to far South Jersey, and northern Delmarva there
is increased confidence in potentially some more icing compared to
other locations. Low-level cold air will struggle to be removed as
warm-air advection at the surface is not particularly strong. The
result will be a period of freezing rain and a Winter Weather
Advisory for icing rather than snow in Salem/Cumberland County in
NJ, New Castle County in DE, and Kent County in DE. HREF Probability
is around 60-80% to see measurable ice accumulation in these spots
tomorrow night. While there will be some snow at onset, significant
accumulations are unexpected, with amounts only up to an inch.
For the South Jersey coast and lower Delmarva, this will primarily
be a rain event. While some flakes are possible at onset, a
quick change to rain is expected.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
315 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A winter storm will impact the area tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow
night. The main change with this update was upgrading the Winter
Storm Watches to either a Warning or an Advisory. In terms of change
to the forecast, snowfall amounts were not necessarily cut, but the
area of highest amounts was trimmed down area-wise to try and narrow
down where the mesoscale banding will set up. Amounts in the jackpot
zone generally have remained around 6 to 10 inches with this update,
with amounts south of the highest totals quickly falling off. The
gradient in snowfall amounts will be tight, making this a very
tricky forecast.
Getting into the meat and potatoes of the forecast, an area of low
pressure will move out of the Great Lakes, diving toward the Mid-
Atlantic and moving offshore by Saturday morning. As it passes, it
brings wintry precipitation to the area. Canadian high pressure will
be in place to start the day, locking in some low-level cold air
with a modest cold air damming pattern, especially over SE PA.
Precipitation moves in during the early to mid afternoon, starting
out as snow in most areas, with a gradual change over to freezing
rain and sleet depending on the location. Some locations, especially
in South Jersey and Delmarva, will change to all rain. A warm nose
aloft around 725-750 mb will move northward as the afternoon and
evening progress. Thinking that warm nose gets to about I-78, a bit
further north compared to previous updates. This will result in
periods of sleet cutting into snow totals over New Jersey and the I-
95 corridor. With low-level cold air over SE PA and Southern NJ
struggling to warm at the surface, a period of freezing rain is
expected with measurable ice anticipated.
North of I-78 and south of the Catskills, a mesoscale band will set
up, producing snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour. The timing for this
band moving through will be around 6 PM to 1 AM, give or take an
hour or so. Currently thinking the southern periphery of the heavy
banding will be over the I-80 corridor, impacting our northern tier
of counties (Warren/Morris/Sussex in NJ and Monroe in PA). The
Winter Storm Watch was converted to a Winter Storm Warning in these
counties as forecast amounts are 6 to 10". The warm nose aloft will
be trying to push into these zones, but thinking the strong dynamics
and lift will keep the precipitation type as mainly snow. NBM and
HREF Probabilities of hitting 6" or more was around 50-80%, so it is
not a slam dunk as the points of uncertainty and failure modes are
evident. If the heavier band sets up further north or south, these
areas likely see their totals cut in half. The same is true if the
warm nose moves further north. However, enough confidence exists to
go with a warning.
The forecast gets even more uncertain for central New Jersey and the
northern Lehigh Valley. There is high confidence in mixed
precipitation occuring, the question remains how much and how much
snow falls before the warm nose reaches this area. Current forecast
has about 2 to 5" or so of snow and sleet with a glaze of ice
possible in the Allentown area. The Winter Storm Watch in this area
was converted to a Winter Weather Advisory with lower, sub-warning
snow totals.
Around the Philly metro area and into South Jersey, 1 to 3 inches
are expected. Areas along and west of the Delaware River also see
some light icing, up to a 0.05" or so. Thinking the stronger
dynamics and colder air is more off to the north, limiting snow
totals with a brief period of snow and a prolonged period of sleet.
While less snow is expected, it will be quite messy with the
combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. The Winter Storm
Watch was converted to a Winter Weather Advisory in this area as
well.
Going further south to far South Jersey, and northern Delmarva there
is increased confidence in potentially some more icing compared to
other locations. Low-level cold air will struggle to be removed as
warm-air advection at the surface is not particularly strong. The
result will be a period of freezing rain and a Winter Weather
Advisory for icing rather than snow in Salem/Cumberland County in
NJ, New Castle County in DE, and Kent County in DE. HREF Probability
is around 60-80% to see measurable ice accumulation in these spots
tomorrow night. While there will be some snow at onset, significant
accumulations are unexpected, with amounts only up to an inch.
For the South Jersey coast and lower Delmarva, this will primarily
be a rain event. While some flakes are possible at onset, a
quick change to rain is expected.
Oh i think i can accomodateWould you two stop agreeing and start bickering again? That's more entertaining!
Masco is bullish because he feels that all storms as of late have over performed and he’s betting on the same thing happening once again with this storm
He said so as such on his telecast yesterday morning on channel 11.
Speaking of Channel 11 - is Byron Miranda still working there?
And gotta say Channel 5 has a weather gal who is worth the price of admission.
And gotta say Channel 5 has a weather gal who is worth the price of admission.
^^^ Best weather post by Numbers ever!
Byron was run out of PIX11 for something he did to meteorlogist Stacey Gooden.
Fox 5, Liv Johnson? Never heard of her. The two morning anchors are just Ok.
He's not wrong yet (nobody is and nobody is right yet), but I think he could be right for his 6" line, for example if models like the GFS and HRRR are correct - odds are they're overdone, but we just don't know yet. I continue to like Lee Goldberg's map best.
My thought- nobody will be "wrong" on this forecast, but that will not stop the usual people from screaming bust or something else. Too much uncertainty to draw hard lines for snow totals.
I like Audrey Puentes on FoxByron was run out of PIX11 for something he did to meteorlogist Stacey Gooden.
Fox 5, Liv Johnson? Never heard of her. The two morning anchors are just Ok.
Tricky forecast because of the changes in the modeled synoptic scale evolution.
Trickier than predicting the starting lineup Pike will set for each game!
This is such a difficult forecast.
latest GFS is a monster hit. Approaching a foot in NYC and NNJ.
not saying that’s what gonna happen - but when you have such model inconsistency, someone is gonna be wrong in their forecast.
Anywhere from 2-10 inches, imo, is still possible for the northern 2/3 of NJ.
latest GFS is a monster hit. Approaching a foot in NYC and NNJ.
not saying that’s what gonna happen - but when you have such model inconsistency, someone is gonna be wrong in their forecast.
Anywhere from 2-10 inches, imo, is still possible for the northern 2/3 of NJ.
The CNJ counties should be on a Winter Storm Warning - not a Winter Weather Advisory. I think Hunterdon / Somerset / Middlesex and Northern Monmouth all hit minimum of 6 inches per the latest models. Doesn’t appear to have much sleet transition, if any.
What did Byron do to Stacey Gooden?Byron was run out of PIX11 for something he did to meteorlogist Stacey Gooden.
Fox 5, Liv Johnson? Never heard of her. The two morning anchors are just Ok.
Verbal / Sexual harassment type of thing?
Shame to hear.
Now, to be fair, a lot of us appreciate a good bust.
Oddly, Somerset, Middlesex and Monmouth were upgraded to warnings, but for the same 3-5" we already had under advisories and the maps didn't change (still shows 4-6" for all 3 counties) nor did the point/clicks which show 3-7" for the northern half of these counties or the hourly graphics, which show almost 6" for northern locations in each county. I'm perplexed. Wondering if they left an intern in charge for Christmas, lol.
No big model changes at 0Z tonight although the NBM did increase snowfall a bit along the SE side of the heavy snow areas under warnings. Can't imagine the NWS making significant changes. Still going to be a challenge to get this right with the sleet risk for many and variations from 0.4" to nearly 1" of liquid equivalent falling (4-10" of snow at 10:1 ratios) across the models. Bust potential is pretty high in both directions.
Should be an impactful storm no matter what though as snow and maybe sleet falling heavily with temps in the upper 20s from 5 pm to 1 am (the main show) will accumulate everywhere, even on treated roads to some extent at those temps; we're fortunate it's mostly after rush hour with many people off and the next day being a Saturday.
No big model changes at 0Z tonight although the NBM did increase snowfall a bit along the SE side of the heavy snow areas under warnings. Can't imagine the NWS making significant changes. Still going to be a challenge to get this right with the sleet risk for many and variations from 0.4" to nearly 1" of liquid equivalent falling (4-10" of snow at 10:1 ratios) across the models. Bust potential is pretty high in both directions.
Should be an impactful storm no matter what though as snow and maybe sleet falling heavily with temps in the upper 20s from 5 pm to 1 am (the main show) will accumulate everywhere, even on treated roads to some extent at those temps; we're fortunate it's mostly after rush hour with many people off and the next day being a Saturday.