Early senior season evaluations drive 2023 On300 rankings update

CharlesPower

On3 has updated the On300 football prospect rankings for the 2023 cycle. This rankings release marks the fourth update this year and is primarily driven by early senior season evaluations.

Updated 2023 On300

The senior season is a pivotal evaluation point in On3’s rankings process. The final prep season proves to be among the best indicators of ability as a college football player, manifested by the NFL Draft. On3 has reviewed a considerable amount of video, including an extensive number of full high school games in formulating this update. We’ve also begun tracking production with the understanding that it’s still early in the season and some prospects have played fewer games than others. Movement in this update represents an early snapshot of what we’ve seen so far this fall. The following update will also focus heavily on the remainder of the season.

It is important to understand that the nature of recruiting rankings lends to residual movement of prospects whose ratings remain unchanged. While there are dozens of prospects who actively rose or fell, the majority of On300 members did not see their rating change.

Our goal is to assess a prospect’s long-term potential in college football, as manifested by the NFL draft. We now have 23 prospects rated as five-stars and will finish with 32 five-stars every cycle.

Let’s get into some of the storylines surrounding this update.

Arch Manning hangs on to No. 1 spot

Arch Manning holds on to the No. 1 spot after a strong start to his senior season. The Five-Star Plus+ Texas quarterback pledge’s hold on the top spot was a bit tenuous entering the fall. Manning did not participate in any offseason events, making for a non-traditional evaluation relative to most top-flight signal callers.

So far, Manning has played well enough to hang on to the No. 1 ranking. Through three games, he’s completed 66% of his passes for 780 yards (10.5 yards per attempt) for 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions with two more rushing touchdowns. While Manning does not typically face top competition, his New Orleans Isidore Newman team has played — and beaten — two 5A teams to start the season. On the field, Manning has continued to show the translatable skill set that has made him a touted prospect. He has projectable size at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds with a very quick release and is showing added velocity.

Tennessee quarterback commit Nico Iamaleava remains the No. 2 overall prospect in the On300. The 6-foot-5.5, 195-pounder has a unique blend of arm talent and twitchy movement skills. He was a standout on the 7-on-7 circuit in the off-season and continues to show the high-end physical ability. Iamaleava could push for the top spot with continued progression and development as a player on Friday nights.

Uncommitted EDGE prospects Keon Keeley (No. 3), Damon Wilson (No. 4) and USC wide receiver commit Zachariah Branch (No. 5) remain top five prospects. The same can be said for Notre Dame offensive tackle commit Charles Jagusah (No. 6), Oklahoma EDGE commit Adepoju Adebawore (No. 7), defensive lineman James Smith (No. 8) and Penn State interior offensive line commit Jven Williams (No. 10) who all remain in the top ten.

Oregon wide receiver commit Jurrion Dickey moves in the top ten, checking in at No. 9. The East Palo Alto (Calif.) Menlo-Atherton pass-catcher earned his fifth star in July’s update and continues to show a well-rounded and highly projectable skill set early on as a senior. Dickey checks in at around 6-foot-3, 210 pounds and brings advanced routes, physicality and ability after the catch. He could push Branch as the top wide receiver in the cycle before it’s all said and done.

Two new 5-stars

This update adds two new five-star prospects, bringing the current total to 23. As noted above, we will finish every cycle with 32 five-stars. No prospect lost a fifth star in this update.

Cedric Baxter (No. 22) has been the top-ranked running back for On3 dating back to last fall. The Texas commit has always had a high-end combination of size, power, play speed and versatility. With that said, Baxter has continued to raise his game as a senior. The 6-foot-1.5, 215-pounder has run for over 870 yards and seven touchdowns on 100 rush attempts. He’s averaging well over 200 yards per contest while leading Orlando Edgewater to a 4-0 record against stiff competition. Baxter has shown toughness, big-play ability and advanced on-field intelligence early on as a senior.

Defensive lineman Daevin Hobbs (No. 23) has seen a meteoric rise dating back to the summer. The Concord (N.C.) Jay M. Robinson product was a standout on the college camp circuit, impressing multiple SEC programs with his workouts, which featured multiple sub-4.8 second 40-yard dash times at around 6-foot-4 and 270 pounds. That top-notch athleticism has seamlessly transferred over to the field as a senior. Hobbs has been dominant as a two-way player early on. He runs away from defensive backs in the open field as a wide receiver and tight end. We’ve also seen some burgeoning skills as a pass rusher. Hobbs has registered a few big games on the defensive side, showing some rare traits with his ability to bend and burst in short areas at his size. While he’s still developing, we currently feel Hobbs’ upside is as high as any defensive lineman in the cycle. Hobbs has upcoming official visits scheduled to Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia.

Movement with the quarterbacks

Five quarterbacks follow Arch Manning and Nico Iamaleava within the top 100. Five-Star Plus+ USC commit Malachi Nelson hangs on to his fifth star, checking in at No. 21. Nelson has put together a good start to his season from a statistical perspective, but we’re looking for continued progression with his velocity and performance against top competition.

Oklahoma commit Jackson Arnold (No. 25) moves to the cusp of five-star status after a hot start to his senior season. Arnold has his Denton Guyer team off to an undefeated start and has made some big throws against top competition. The 6-foot-1, 200-pounder has a quick release and one of the stronger downfield arms in the cycle. Arnold is in his second year as a starter at Denton Guyer, and the game looks to be slowing down for him a bit early on. He should be playing deep into the playoffs and continue rising with a strong senior year in Texas’ top classification.

Clemson commit Christopher Vizzina (No. 29) has shown some toughness and leadership in leading his team on two game-winning drives early on. Vizzina is making plays both as a passer and runner and has put his Birmingham (Ala.) Briarwood Christian team on his back. The 6-foot-4, 205-pounder was the top rusher among this group as a junior. That continues to be the case through the first month of this season. While he does not have the supporting cast of some other top quarterbacks, we’d still like to see more timing and precision as an in-structure passer over the rest of the season.

Oregon commit Dante Moore (No. 46) remains in the same range after an up and down start to his senior year. Moore had a tough outing in his opener against an out-of-state program, but has bounced back as of late. The 6-foot-1.5, 210-pounder is a polished passer who excels in structure and is able to pick apart opposing defenses with his accuracy and timing, particularly in the short and intermediate areas of the field.

Iowa State commit JJ Kohl (No. 73) was a riser in July’s update on the heels of standout showings at the Elite 11 Finals and Under Armour’s Future 50. Kohl got off to a bit of a rocky start this season, but rebounded with a huge game on Friday night. The 6-foot-6.5, 230-pounder completed 21 of 23 passes for 261 yards and four touchdowns against the defending state champions.

Movers within the top 50

A handful of four-star prospects made moves within the top 50.

Ohio State interior offensive line pledge Luke Montgomery (No. 24) has arguably the best early senior season video we’ve seen from an offensive line prospect thus far. The 6-foot-4.5, 285-pounder was primarily a defensive lineman early on in his high school career, but has grown into an offensive prospect. Montgomery shows the movement skills and reactive quickness while manning the left tackle spot for his Findlay (Ohio) High team. While ranked as an interior offensive lineman, Montgomery has the versatility to play all five positions on the offensive line in Columbus.

Georgia commit Monroe Freeling (No. 27) may have the most physical ability of offensive tackle prospects in the cycle. Freeling owns a massive frame at 6-foot-7.5, 285 pounds with a 7-foot-plus wing-span and 11-inch hands. He pairs that size with some of the best bend and flexibility we’ve seen from a lineman in this cycle. Freeling has largely been an upside evaluation to this point, but he’s showing signs of making a leap as a senior. The natural ability jumps out when watching his Mount Pleasant (S.C.) Oceanside Collegiate team play.

LSU EDGE commit Dashawn Womack (No. 28) has put together some strong showings while playing a national schedule at Baltimore St. Frances Academy. The 6-foot-4, 245-pounder was virtually unblockable against DeSoto (Texas) High, one of the Lone Star State’s top program. Womack’s ready-made size, plus athleticism (laser timed 4.76 second 40-yard dash) and pass rush polish give him one of the highest floors top top EDGE prospects.

Florida wide receiver commit Eugene Wilson III (No. 36) made a big rankings splash back in February after an eye-popping showing on the camp circuit. Those advanced movement skills and technical abilities as a receiver have shown up on the field so far this fall. Wilson is a silky smooth receiver with elite quickness and high-end ball skills at 5-foot-11, 165-pounds. The NFL legacy is a two-way standout as a receiver and cornerback at Tampa Gaither, but has the skill set to be a dangerous pass-catcher in Gainesville.

Clemson commit Stephiylan Green (No. 41) has looked like one of the more disruptive defensive linemen early on this fall. Green was all over the field in his Rome (Ga.) High team’s season opener. The 6-foot-2, 275-pounder plays with a high effort level and has the athleticism and play strength to affect the game in a number of ways.

Ohio State cornerback commit Jermaine Mathews (No. 48) made a huge jump in July’s update after we watched him put together a sensational showing at LSU’s elite camp in June. The 5-foot-11.5, 175-pounder pairs good size, length and athleticism with advanced technical cover skills. He’s shown that ability so far this fall at Cincinnati Winton Woods and is making plays in coverage, run support and as a return man.