Bowl Projections: ESPN predicts 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, full bowl slate after Week 12

With just two weekends remaining in the regular season, the 2025 College Football Playoff race is heating up as contenders and pretenders reveal their true colors during a pivotal Week 12. And after No. 4 Alabama and No. 10 Texas were both among seven Top 25 teams to lose this weekend, the projected 12-team Playoff field remains as uncertain as ever.

The CFP’s third of its six Top 25 rankings will be released Tuesday evening on ESPN. But, in the meantime, ESPN prognosticators Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach have provided a projection of what the 2025 postseason could look like based on the first 12 weeks of the season.

Keep in mind, this year’s 12-team CFP bracket format does away with automatic first-round byes for conference champions, with the opening byes going to the Playoff’s top four highest-ranked teams. That change aside, the first round will once again feature on-site home games for the highest-ranked teams numbered 5-8, just like last season. The first-round winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and subsequently to the semifinals, at previously-designated bowl sites.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 1

Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas Tech

Following another weekend of chaos in the American Conference, the ESPN experts are in agreement with their projected Group of Five champion: No. 22 North Texas. This is despite the Mean Green not currently the highest-ranked Group of Five contender — that goes to No. 21 James Madison of the Sun Belt.

Nevertheless, as the 12th seed, North Texas would get the pleasure to taking on in-state foe and projected Big 12 champion Texas Tech, which has already beaten fellow conference contender BYU two weeks ago and is expected to do the same in Big 12 title game.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 2

Bonagura: No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Ole Miss 
Schlabach: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Oregon

After agreeing on the Group of Five champion, the ESPN experts are split over their projected ACC champion and 11th seed. Bonagura is sticking with the one-loss Yellow Jackers after edging out Boston College last weewkend, while Schlabach expects the two-loss Cavaliers to win the league in Charlotte.

Whoever wins the ACC and secures the 11th seed will play the third-ranked team out of either the Big Ten or the SEC, depending how the rest of the regular season plays out. Bonagura is projecting one-loss Ole Miss, will get the sixth seed, while Schlabach is more confident on a resurgent Oregon.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 3

Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss

The Crimson Tide (8-2, 6-1 SEC) are expected to freefall down the CFP standings following Saturday’s 23-21 home loss to Oklahoma. Alabama dropped to 10th in both the AP and Coaches polls on Sunday, and if the CFP follows suit, the Tide will go from potential first-round bye to hitting the road in Round 1.

Bonagura projects that ‘Bama will have to make the cross country trip to Eugene against seventh-seeded Oregon, while Schalabach thinks the road trip will stay within the SEC footprint in what amounts to an All-SEC battle between the league’s two Playoff teams that didn’t make it to Atlanta.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 4

Bonagura: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Notre Dame 
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

As mentioned, the two-loss Sooners (9-2, 4-2 SEC) effectively punched their Playoff ticket with Saturday’s road upset in Tuscaloosa, their second straight Top 25 win in league play. And while Oklahoma must still avoid losing either of its final two regular-season games, a Playoff bid appears in sight.

Notre Dame (8-2) is another two-loss contender destined for the Playoffs after winning eight straight since opening the season at 0-2. And with Syracuse and Stanford ahead, it’s a near-certainty the Fighting Irish will once again make the 12-team field. The only question is if they host or hit the road in Round 1.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl

Bonagura: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana

Following Saturday’s loss, neither ESPN expert is a believer in Alabama making it out of the first round. Instead both expect minimal first-round upsets, with Bonagura and Schlabach both projecting seventh-seeded Oregon or Ole Miss, respectively, will move on to face Big Ten runner-up Indiana.

Bonagura, in fact, expects a second-straight Playoff with an All-Big Ten quarterfinal meeting, this time between the Ducks and Hoosiers, a rematch of their Oct. 11 meeting in Eugene that Indiana won 30-20. Schlabach, meanwhile, is looking forward to a Lane Kiffin vs. Curt Cignetti matchup in Dallas.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4. Georgia 
Schlabach: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia

Both ESPN experts are projecting a very intriguing quarterfinal matchup between Big 12 champion Texas Tech and SEC runner-up Georgia in Miami. Bonagura even believes the Bulldogs and Red Raiders have shown themselves capable of winning the national championship if things play out in their favor.

Schlabach, meanwhile, cited how Georgia appears to be “peaking at the right time” on both sides of the ball, especially on defense, which sacked Texas QB three times in Saturday’s 35-10 win in Sanford Stadium. Given the battled-tested nature of both teams, this Orange Bowl quarterfinal will be must-see TV.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State

More agreement from the ESPN prognosticators, who both decided to give the Granddaddy of them All a dream quarterfinal between two of the most famous brands in college football. The Irish have rebounded nicely since opening the season with back-to-back losses to Miami and Texas A&M.

Meanwhile, the Buckeyes begin their CFP championship defense in Pasadena after rolling through the regular season undefeated, which obviously suggests Ohio State finally exorcises its demons in The Game against rival Michigan to end the regular season. That would be OSU’s 16th straight win.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Texas A&M

In another made-for-TV game, this year’s Sugar Bowl could be an explosive offensive affair featuring some of the most exciting players in the game right now. Bonagura projects an All-SEC quarterfinal between the Rebels and Aggies, which haven’t played one another since 2023.

Bonagura, on the other hand, pits SEC Champion Texas A&M against Oregon in a game that “would feature tow of the more dynamic quarterbacks in the FBS” between the Aggies’ Marcel Reed and the Ducks’ Dante Moore, both explosive dual-threat sophomores.

CFP National Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Bonagura describes Big Ten champion Ohio State as “the clear favorite to win it all” for the second consecutive season, but not before facing Big 12 champion Texas Tech in Arizona. This semifinal provides an interesting matchup between the Buckeye’s electric offense vs. the Red Raiders’ fierce defense.

Meanwhile, Schlabach projects the Bulldogs escape with a hard-fought victory over Tech to set up a SEC vs. Big Ten showdown between college football’s most recent national champions. Georgia — college football’s last back-to-back champ — would have the chance to deny OSU of the same distinction.

CFP National Semifinal at Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana

The second semifinal pits a pair of teams led by second-year head coaches that have transformed their programs into national powers in short order. Curt Cignetti has built a beast in Bloomington, with Indiana reaching 11 wins in back-to-back seasons (Cignetti also won 11 in 2023 at James Madison).

Meanwhile, Mike Elko has Texas A&M on the verge of its first undefeated season in three decades and on the precipce of winning the program’s first-ever SEC championship. As evidenced by Saturday’s school-record 28-0 second-half comeback vs. South Carolina, both the Aggies and Hoosiers are battle tested.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Despite some exciting semifinal matchups between the SEC/Big 12 and Big Ten, both ESPN prognosticators don’t diverge from their previous projections of an All-Big Ten national title game, providing the league its third-straight national champion regardless of who wins in Miami.

Despite creating a rematch of the upcoming Big Ten title game, Bonagura and Schlabach remain confident the two most dominant teams through the first 12 weeks of the season will ultimately be there in the end, as the Big Ten once again dances of the grave of the SEC.

ESPN’s full 2025 bowl slate predictions

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. Delaware State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Washington vs. San Diego State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Arkansas State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Old Dominion

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Troy
Schlabach: Marshall vs. East Carolina

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Tulane vs. NC State
Schlabach: UConn vs. Florida State

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Ohio vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. Miami (Ohio)

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Louisiana Tech

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. California

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Rutgers vs. Western Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Northwestern

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Boise State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Illinois

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: Clemson vs. South Florida

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Houston
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. BYU

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. Georgia Southern

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. LSU
Schlabach: Miami vs. Texas

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Kentucky

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida State vs. James Madison
Schlabach: NC State vs. James Madison

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Western Kentucky

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Houston vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Texas
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: TCU vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Memphis

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Washington
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona State