Bowl Projections: ESPN predicts 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, full bowl slate after Week 13

Thirteen weeks down and one to go. With just one weekend remaining in the 2025 regular season, this year’s postseason slate is rounding into form. And while nothing is guaranteed yet, especially when it comes to the College Football Playoff‘s 12-team field, the number of potential Playoff contenders has been considerably whittled down as Power Four conference races narrow entering Rivalry Weekend.

And while Week 13 only saw five total Top 25 go down this weekend, there were some interesting results that could have major ramifications for the upcoming postseason. That included potential Playoff-eliminating losses for No. 15 USC and No. 16 Georgia Tech, whose hopes of making their respective conference title games were effectively ended this past weekend.

With those games in mind, ESPN experts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach revealed their updated projection of what the 2025 postseason could look like with just Rivalry Weekend remaining, including a breakdown of the upcoming 12-team College Football Playoff.

Keep in mind, this year’s 12-team CFP bracket format does away with automatic first-round byes for conference champions, with the opening byes going to the Playoff’s top four highest-ranked teams. That change aside, the first round will once again feature on-site home games for the highest-ranked teams numbered 5-8, just like last season. The first-round winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and subsequently to the semifinals, at previously-designated bowl sites.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 1

Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas Tech

The once-crowded American Conference has seemingly settled on a trio of true contenders, though Bonagura and Schlabach continue to be split on which one will ultimately win the league and thus qualify for the 12-team Playoff field.

Both North Texas and No. 24 Tulane won their Week 13 games handedly, and appear destined to meet for the league title in two weeks, but even that could turned on its head if Navy has anything to say about it. In the meantime, whoever wins the American would meet the Big 12 champion in this projection.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 2

Bonagura: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Ole Miss 
Schlabach: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Oregon

Following another rough weekend in the ACC, in which 16th-ranked Georgia Tech got rolled 42-28 at home to unranked Pitt, that conference race looks as muddy as ever. And as was the case a year ago, it appears SMU will be the beneficary having won three straight to climb back into the mix in the ACC.

It’s because of that run that the ESPN experts are united behind the three-loss Mustangs doing what it couldn’t last season and winning the ACC title and the Playoff’s 11th seed in the process. And while that will likely mean someone’s in the Top 12 will be bumped out, it certainly adds drama to Selection Sunday.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 3

Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss

Following its Week 12 home loss to Oklahoma, Alabama’s road to the Playoff runs through Auburn in this Saturday’s Iron Bowl. Win and the Crimson Tide punch its ticket to Atlanta for the SEC title game, while a third loss would doome their Playoff hopes.

That said, both Bonagura and Schlabach expect a win Saturday for Alabama to fall to undefeated Texas A&M in Atlanta, leaving a then-three-loss Tide to remain the Playoff’s 10th seed. There they’d face compelling first-round road games in either Eugene or Oxford, which could be looking for a new coach.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 4

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma 
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Neither ESPN expert expects much significant movement over the next two weeks, with a two-loss Notre Dame slotted as the ninth seed and a first-round road trip to Norman against the eighth-seeded Sooners.

Both programs are surging at the right time, with the Irish winning nine straight since starting 0-2 and Oklahoma beating three straight Top 25 SEC foe — including Alabama two weeks ago — to potentially create a compelling first-round matchup.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl

Bonagura: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana

The ESPN insiders clearly have no faith in Alabama, with both projecting their respective seventh seed — either Oregon or Ole Miss of the Big Ten and SEC, respectively — winning their first-round game at home only to face off against the Big Ten runner-up Hoosiers in Dallas.

Bonagura, in fact, projects Oregon would advance to a Big Ten rematch of their Oct. 11 meeting in Eugene that Indiana won 30-20. Schlabach, meanwhile, has the Rebels moving on — with or without Lane Kiffin still on the sideline — to square off against Curt Cignetti‘s blue-collar Indiana squad.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4. Georgia 
Schlabach: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia

Both Bonagura and Schalbach project the Big 12 champion Red Raiders will continue their late-season surge and meet the SEC’s second-seeded Bulldogs, regardless of whether they get the opportunity to defend last year’s SEC championship next week in Atlanta.

Right now, Georgia needs some help, and based on their other projections — namely Alabama making the field at all — that means the Bulldogs make the Playoffs and get multiple weeks off for good measure after failing to make next weekend’s SEC title game.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State

After both projected another deep Playoff run for the Fighting Irish last week, the ESPN prognosticators are split on how the first-round 8-vs-9 matchup will ultimately play out between Oklahoman and Notre Dame. Either way, though, they both expect the winner to face top-seeded Ohio State in Pasadena.

While Schlabach stuck with his pick that Notre Dame will keep rolling into the quarters, Bonagura went against the grain and hitched his schooner wagon to the Sooners, which would give the Granddaddy of them All a potential quarterfinal slugfest between two of college football’s best defenses this season.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Texas A&M

In another made-for-TV game, this year’s Sugar Bowl could be an explosive offensive affair featuring some of the most exciting players in the game right now. Bonagura projects an All-SEC quarterfinal between the Rebels and Aggies, which haven’t played one another since 2023.

Schlabach, on the other hand, pits SEC Champion Texas A&M against Oregon in a battle between two of college football’s most dynamic quarterbacks in the Aggies’ Marcel Reed and the Ducks’ Dante Moore, both explosive dual-threat sophomores.

CFP National Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Bonagura projects a quarterfinal upset with the Big 12 champion Red Raiders taking advantage of Georgia’s rustiness after multiple weeks off the field, and pits last offseason’s Transfer Portal winner taking on the reigning national champion Buckeyes for a ticket to the title game.

Meanwhile, Schlabach is confident Kirby Smart will find a way to have the Bulldogs ready for the moment, as he’s done many times before, to set up a much-anticipated SEC vs. Big Ten showdown between college football’s most recent national champions.

CFP National Semifinal at Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana

The second semifinal pits two teams led by second-year head coaches that have transformed their respective programs into national powers in short order. Curt Cignetti has built a beast in Bloomington, with Indiana reaching 11 wins in back-to-back seasons (Cignetti also won 11 in 2023 at James Madison).

Meanwhile, Mike Elko has Texas A&M on the verge of its first undefeated season in three decades and on the precipice of winning the program’s first-ever SEC championship nearly 15 years after joining the league in 2012. 

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Finally, we have a shakeup in the semifinals as Schlabach reverses course in his Peach Bowl projection and delivers what college football fans really want to see — a SEC vs. Big Ten national championship for all the marbles. The Big Ten has won the past two national titles, halting a four-year run by the SEC.

On the other side, Bonagura is holding firm to his projected rematch of the Big Ten title game, further guaranteeing the Big Ten wins a third consecutive national title regardless of the ultimate victor in Miami. Both Ohio State and Indiana have been 1-2 much of the season, so this is only fitting.

ESPN’s full 2025 bowl slate predictions

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona State vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Washington vs. San Diego State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Troy
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Old Dominion

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. UConn
Schlabach: Marshall vs. East Carolina

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Clemson
Schlabach: UConn vs. Florida State

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Louisiana

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Utah State vs. Louisiana Tech

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. California

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Western Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Minnesota

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. UNLV

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Illinois

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Army
Schlabach: Louisville vs. South Florida

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Houston
Schlabach: Virginia vs. Cincinnati

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. UTSA

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. LSU
Schlabach: Miami vs. Texas

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Texas
Schlabach: Houston vs. Kentucky

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: NC State vs. James Madison

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Western Kentucky

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: TCU vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Memphis

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Washington
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Arizona State