Bowl Projections: ESPN predicts 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, full bowl slate after Week 3

Week 3 of the 2025 college football season had several games that came down to the wire, including a pair of Top 15 upsets that ended thanks to a kick. Key among the most compelling games Saturday included Georgia Tech’s 24-21 upset of No. 12 Clemson on a last-second field goal and No. 16 Texas A&M edging out No. 8 Notre Dame courtesy of a made extra point.

And let’s not forget about the only Top 25 overtime thriller Saturday when No. 6 Georgia rallied back from a two-score deficit to beat No. 15 Tennessee on a 1-yard touchdown run by Josh McCray in the first overtime period in Knoxville. In all, there were five Top 25 losses in Week 3, further muddying the waters for ESPN prognosticators Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach as they build out their ESPN’s College Football Playoff and bowl game projections entering a pivotal Week 4.

Keep in mind, this year’s 12-team CFP bracket format does away with automatic first-round byes for conference champions, with the opening byes going to the Playoff’s top four highest-ranked teams. That change aside, the first round will once again feature on-site home games for the highest-ranked teams numbered 5-8, just like last season. The first-round winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and subsequently to the semifinals, at previously-designated bowl sites.

Check out ESPN’s full 12-team College Football Playoff bracket projection below:

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 1

Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 LSU
Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon

For the first time this season, Bonagura and Schlabach differed on the Playoff’s projected Group of Five champion, with Bonagura riding with USF despite Miami’s 49-12 rout of the Bulls on Saturday. Meanwhile, Schlabach opted for Tulane, which beat visiting Duke 34-27 behind four rushing scores from Jake Retzlaff.

They also differed on the Playoff’s fifth seed, with Bonagura projecting SEC runner-up LSU will be the first team outside the Top 4, while Schlabach went with his Big Ten runner-up Oregon as the second of four Big Ten representatives in the 12-team field.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 2

Bonagura: No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Penn State

ESPN’s two prognosticators are in total agreement on their projected Big 12 champion, expecting the 20th-ranked Utes to eventually come out on top of the highly-competitive league. Of course, that could change next Saturday with Utah’s Big 12 opener vs. No. 17 Texas Tech.

Meanwhile, Bonagura is all-in on the Hurricanes continuing their strong play through the rest of the season and winning the ACC championship over FSU to secure the No. 6 seed. Schlabach, though, slotted the Nittany Lions in that spot after not making the Big Ten championship game.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 3

Bonagura: No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 10 Illinois at No. 7 Florida State 

Both Bonagura and Schlabach expect to see Florida State and Miami represent the ACC in the 2025 CFP field, and both have slotted the league runner-up ‘Noles into their No. 7 seed where they’ll match up against the fourth team from either the SEC or Big Ten.

Bonaura believes John Mateer and the Sooners will utlimately secure the 10th seed as the SEC’s fourth-best team, while Schlabach is giving that spot to the fast-rising Fighting Illini, who have dominated their non-conference slate before opening Big Ten play next Saturday at Indiana.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 4

Bonagura: No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Illinois
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas A&M at No. 8 Oklahoma

Schlabach is projecting the pivotal 8 vs. 9 matchup will be an all-SEC bout between the eigth-seeded Sooners and Texas A&M, which is coming off an impressive 41-40 road win over then-No. 8 Notre Dame on Saturday to jump into the Top 10 both the AP and Coaches polls on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Bonagura remains a believer in Texas’ overwhelming talent, including star QB Arch Manning, to be the Playoff’s third-ranked SEC team in what will the first of multiple SEC-Big Ten matchups in this year’s 12-team field.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl

Bonagura: No. 7 Florida State vs. No. 3 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Georgia

Schlabach projects the Playoff quarterfinals will begin with another compelling Big Ten vs. SEC showdown with the fifth-seeded Ducks besting its G5 competition only to face off against the SEC runner-up Bulldogs in Dallas. Oregon’s high-powered offense vs. Georgia’s defense would be must-see TV.

Meanwhile, Bonagura also expects to see Oregon in the Cotton Bowl, but he sees a date between conference runner-ups with the Big Ten’s Ducks taking on the ACC’s Seminoles in Dallas.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 LSU vs. No. 4 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Miami

It’s more Big Ten vs. SEC action in the Orange Bowl for Bonagura, who projects fifth-seeded LSU will make quick work of its G5 competition only to square off against his Big Ten runner-up Nittany Lions in another compelling showdown between two of college football’s most talented rosters.

Schlabach, meanwhile, also expects Penn State to represent the Big Ten in Miami after getting past Big 12 champion Utah, where it’ll play what amounts to a home game for the ACC champion Hurricanes in a potential shootout between two of college football’s best offenses.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 8 Illinois vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State 

Both ESPN prognosticators remain highly confident the reigning national champion Buckeyes will only continue to dominate their competition this season and secure the outright No. 1 overall seed and a date in Pasadena after reclaiming the Big Ten championship.

Where they differ is with Ohio State’s quarterfinal competition, with Bonagura expecting an all-Big Ten quarterfinal against the Fighting Illini in a rematch of their September regular-season matchup. Schlabach, on the otherhand, sees another SEC-Big Ten matchup after the Sooners best Texas A&M in Norman.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU

Both Bonagura and Schlabach envision the fourth and final CFP quarterfinal will ultimately be a ACC vs. SEC showdown, though each differs on the exact matchup in New Orleans. Schlabach projects the SEC champion Tigers will play a relative home game against the ACC runner-up Seminoles.

Bonagura, meanwhile, expects New Orleans to host an all-conference champion Sugar Bowl between his SEC champion Bulldogs and the ACC champion Hurricanes in what would amount to the Carson Beck Bowl after the former Georgia QB transferred to Miami this past offseason.

CFP National Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State

After both ESPN prognosticators went chalk in the first round, Bonagura expects SEC runner-up LSU to knock off fourth-seeded Penn State in the quarterfinal, only to match up with the top overall seed Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal.

Meanwhile, Schlabach continues to project the top seeds will reign as his SEC runner-up Bulldogs face a matchup with the reigning champion Buckeyes in a battle between two of the last three CFP champions that could go a long way to settling the great conference debate btween the Big Ten and SEC.

CFP National Semifinal at Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 LSU

The second semifinal is once again a return to chalk as Bonagura projects Kirby Smart and his SEC champion Bulldogs to win the Carson Beck Bowl only to face the Big Ten runner-up Ducks and former protege Dan Lanning for a date to the national championship.

Schlabach, meanwhile, has the ACC champion Hurricanes beating Penn State to square off against his projected SEC champion LSU in Atlanta for a trip to the national championship. This matchup would pit two potential No. 1 picks in Miami QB Carson Beck and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Not a lot of mystery in ESPN’s projected championship game with both Bonagura and Schlabach ultimately going chalk all the way with both their top two seeds meeting at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

Bonagura projects an all-Big Ten CFP national title game in a rematch of Indianapolis’ Big Ten championship game between top-seeded Ohio State and league runner-up Oregon. Meanwhile, Schlabach expects the ultimate Big Ten vs. SEC battle for all the marbles between the Buckeyes and Tigers in a rematch of the 2008 BCS national championship game that LSU won 38-24.

ESPN’s full 2025 bowl slate predictions

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon ET, ABC
Bonagura: Alabama State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Troy vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: South Alabama vs. UConn
Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Miami (Ohio). 

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. James Madison
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. Virginia

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Utah State 

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Temple
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Jacksonville State 
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Louisiana Tech

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Liberty
Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Army
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Navy

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Maryland
Schlabach: BYU vs. Wisconsin

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Rutgers vs. Arkansas State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 am ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Duke vs. Memphis

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon ET, ABC
Bonagura: NC State vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Maryland

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Tulane
Schlabach: SMU vs. South Florida

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 pm ET, ABC
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. BYU
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Texas Tech

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 pm ET, CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Utah State vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Texas State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 pm ET, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss

Monday, Dec. 29

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Houston vs. Jacksonville State

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Auburn

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 pm ET, CBS
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 pm ET, ABC
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Alabama

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cal
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Cal

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Missouri

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Carolina

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 pm ET, FOX
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Washington
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State