Bowl Projections: ESPN predicts 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, full bowl slate after Week 4

If the first four weeks of the 2025 campaign are any indication of what’s ahead, fans are in for a wild college football postseason. On Sunday, ESPN analysts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach did their best to predict the future, releasing their updated College Football Playoff and bowl game projections.

There will be no shortage of teams playing late into the year, and even into 2026. Not counting the CFP, there will be 35 bowl games this year. Add on the 12-team CFP bracket, and 82 teams will be participating in the postseason.

Week 4 gave experts plenty to analyze. With so much ground to cover, let’s waste no time getting into ESPN’s updated projections.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 1

Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 LSU
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon

While USF is no longer undefeated after suffering a 49-12 blowout loss against Miami in Week 3, Bonagura and Schlabach still believe the Bulls will be the Group-of-Five team to make the CFP. In fairness, USF has a stunning résumé thus far this season.

The Bulls have wins over Boise State and Florida, both of which were ranked at the time of USF’s respective wins. Bonagura has USF matching up against LSU in the first round, while Schlabach foresees Oregon being the 5-seed.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 2

Bonagura: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Penn State

Neither analyst altered their 6-seeds from last week. However, both made changes to their 11-seeds. It’s no surprise. Texas Tech and Indiana each made statement wins this weekend.

The Red Raiders became the favorites to win the Big 12 after defeating Utah 34-10. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers steamrolled Illinois in a 63-10 blowout effort. If Illinois can continue to build on its momentum, it’ll be difficult to keep the Hoosiers out of the CFP.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 3

Bonagura: No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Florida State

Bonagura isn’t giving up on Texas yet. The Longhorns are 3-1 this season, but have been far from the powerhouse they were hyped up to be entering the 2025 season. Schlabach is more keen to predict the Aggies secure a CFP spot.

While they don’t see eye-to-eye on their respective 10-seeds, the two men are in agreement with Florida State being the 7-seed. The Seminoles have been spectacular this season. After enjoying a bye in Week 3, FSU picked up where it left off, dominating Kent State from start to finish on Saturday.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 4

Bonagura: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oklahoma

Though they don’t foresee Oklahoma earning the same seed, both Bonagura and Schlabach expect Oklahoma to be in Game 4 of the CFP. The Sooners added to their résumé this weekend with a 24-17 win over Auburn.

Sooners quarterback John Mateer looked like a Heisman candidate once again. In the victory, he tallied 271 passing yards and a touchdown. Additionally, Mateer collected 29 yards and a score in the ground game.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl

Bonagura: No. 7 Florida State vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU

Bonaguara and Schlabach each expect Oregon to reach the CFP quarterfinals. However, they have different expectations for their path there. Wherever Oregon ends up in the CFP picture, it’ll be a legitimate threat for the national title.

Oregon is 4-0 this season and has the second-largest scoring margin in the country. The Ducks have haven’t played down to their competition and look poised to bounce back in the postseason following a disappointing exit last season.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 LSU vs. No. 4 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 7 Florida State vs. No. 2 Miami

Schlabach is convinced Miami is taking home the ACC crown this season, and it’s difficult to argue. The Hurricanes have been fantastic, most recently defeating Florida in convincing 26-7 fashion.

The Hurricanes didn’t even need a massive game out of quarterback Carson Beck. Instead, running back Mark Fletcher Jr. shined, tallying 116 yards and a touchdown in the victory.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State 

The pair of analysts can agree on the top team in the land: Ohio State. The Buckeyes jumpstarted their season with a 14-7 win over Texas and haven’t looked back since. Ohio State enjoyed a bye this week after routing Ohio 37-9 in Week 3.

In the win, star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith reeled in nine catches for a team-high 153 yards and a touchdown. Carnell Tate didn’t trail far behind, racking up five catches for 101 yards and a score. Evidently, ESPN believes Ohio State is poised to be the national champion again this season.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Georgia

Georgia is building acclaim by the week. The Bulldogs are the ESPN analysts’ pick to win the SEC after they defeated Tennessee 44-41 in overtime last weekend.

Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton quieted concerns around him, completing 23-of-his-31 pass attempts for 304 yards and two TDs, without throwing an interception. If Stockton can become consistent, Georgia has all the pieces necessary to win it all.

CFP National Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Miami

LSU is the only team outside of the top-four seeds to reach the CFP semifinals in Bonagura’s projections. The Tigers put on a show Saturday against SE Louisiana after only defeating Florida 20-10 in Week 3.

In 56-10 blowout victory, LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier returned to form, notching 273 passing yards and three touchdowns. He didn’t throw an interception. LSU’s postseason hopes will hinge on Nussmeier.

CFP National Semifinal at Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Bonagura and Schlabach didn’t adjust their picks whatsoever this week for the Peach Bowl. If either of them happen to be correct, fans are in for an entertaining game.

In Bonagura’s vision, the best team in the SEC would face off against Oregon and former Georgia coordinator Dan Lanning. Meanwhile, if Schlabach is correct, Oregon and Ohio State will square off for a rematch of last season’s CFP quarterfinals.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Miami vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Bonagura also expects Oregon and Ohio State to butt heads in the playoffs. However, he doesn’t expect the two Big Ten powerhouses to meet until the final game of the season. It’d be a spectacle, especially because the Ducks and Buckeyes aren’t scheduled to meet in the regular season this year.

Of course, Miami and Ohio State could make for a tantalizing showdown, as well. The Hurricanes haven’t been to the national championship since 2002. Miami’s fanbase would undoubtedly be ready to go to war against the OSU faithful with a national championship trophy on the line.

ESPN’s full 2025 bowl slate predictions

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Alabama State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cal vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Alabama vs. Miami (OH)
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Georgia Southern

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee
Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Central Michigan

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Marshall
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. NC State
Schlabach: South Carolina vs. Virginia

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl 
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: North Texas vs. Texas State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Rutgers vs. Buffalo

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Maryland
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Michigan State

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Army vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: UCF vs. San Diego State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Pitt vs. Memphis
Schlabach: SMU vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Duke vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Maryland

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Tulane
Schlabach: NC State vs. Memphis

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Utah

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Utah State vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Texas State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Alabama

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Houston vs. Jacksonville State

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Auburn

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Rice

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Missouri
Schlabach: BYU vs. Missouri

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Duke vs. Vanderbilt

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Washington
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State