Bowl Projections: ESPN predicts 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, full bowl slate after Week 5

The first full month of the 2025 college football season is officially in the books following a heartpounding slate of Week 5 action this past weekend. Week 5 included a multitude of shocking Top 25 losses, beginning with No. 8 Florida State‘s stunning 46-38 overtime loss to unranked Virginia. From there, Saturday saw three Top 5 teams get toppled as Penn State, LSU and Georgia all fell to Oregon, Ole Miss and Alabama, respectively, in Top 20 matchups.

Now, as the college football calendar turns to October, ESPN prognosticators Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach took Week 5’s wild results into consideration as they once again overhauled their ESPN’s College Football Playoff and bowl game projections entering a pivotal Week 6.

Keep in mind, this year’s 12-team CFP bracket format does away with automatic first-round byes for conference champions, with the opening byes going to the Playoff’s top four highest-ranked teams. That change aside, the first round will once again feature on-site home games for the highest-ranked teams numbered 5-8, just like last season. The first-round winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and subsequently to the semifinals, at previously-designated bowl sites.

Check out ESPN’s full 12-team College Football Playoff bracket projection below:

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 1

Bonagura: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Ole Miss

The ESPN experts diverge on their Group of Five selection, though they both expect the CFP’s G5 representative to come out of the American Conference. Bonagura is all-in on undefeated Memphis rolling through the American, while Schlabach still has faith South Florida will be there in the end.

They’re also split over how the SEC race will ultimately play out. Bonagura is projecting Oklahoma will fall to Ole Miss in the SEC title game but still manage to secure the fifth seed against Memphis, while Schlabach has the Rebels coming up short in Atlanta to Texas A&M before matching up with USF.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 2

Bonagura: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Texas Tech

More disagreement between the ESPN prognosticators as Bonagura expects Big 12 runner-up Iowa State will still sneak into the 12-team field as the 11th seed, where it’ll match up against the Nittany Lions, which gets into the field after avoiding a rematch with Oregon in Indianapolis.

Schlabach also has Penn State making the 12-team field, but as the 11th seed following Saturday’s double-OT home loss (30-24) to the Ducks, where it’ll open the Playoffs with a date against the Big 12 champion Red Raiders.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 3

Bonagura: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Oklahoma

While Saturday night’s home loss to Alabama certainly stung, neither ESPN expert believes it’ll doom Georgia’s CFP chances, with both projecting the Bulldogs will earn the SEC’s final Playoff bid as the No. 10 seed.

Where they differ is who Georgia will play, with Bonagura projecting Big 12 champion Texas Tech securing the seventh seed after beating Iowa State. Meanwhile, Schlabach envisions the Bulldogs will earn the SEC’s fifth bid before facing Oklahoma in an All-SEC first-round matchup.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 4

Bonagura: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Indiana

Finally, some consensus. Both of the ESPN experts are in agreement with the fourth first-round matchup, believing the Crimson Tide will make their return to the Playoff after just missing out a year ago as the No. 9 seed following Saturday’s big road win in Athens.

They also agree on Alabama’s first-round opponent, expecting the Hoosiers will once again manage to back into a spot in the 12-team field despite not playing for the Big Ten title as the 8th seed for the second straight season.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl

Bonagura: No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon

Both Bonagura and Schlabach project Big Ten powers Ohio State and Oregon will ultimately finish 1-2 in the CFP rankings, with the Ducks earning the No. 2 seed after falling to the Buckeyes in Indianapolis.

Where they differ is who makes it out of the 7-10 first-round matchup. Bonagura remains high on the Big 12 champion Red Raiders vs. Georgia, while Schlabach is betting the Bulldogs rebound from Saturday’s setback to set up a compelling quarerfinal between Kirby Smart and Dan Lanning in the Cotton Bowl.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Miami

More consensus from our ESPN experts, who both expect to see Carson Beck and the Hurricanes continue running through the rest of the ACC before ultimately securing the Playoff’s No. 3 overall seed as league champions.

Of course, they differ on Miami’s opponent with Schlabach envisioning a showdown between league winners as the Big 12’s Texas Tech faces its ACC counterpart. Meanwhile, Bonagura remains confident the Nittany Lions have enough firepower to meet the ‘Canes in what amounts to a home game for Miami.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Both Bonagura and Schlabach were simpatico once again regarding this year’s Rose Bowl quarterfinal matchup between the top-overall seed and Big Ten champion Buckeyes and Alabama, which exorcised it road demons under second-year coach Kalen DeBoer with Saturday’s 24-21 win in Athens.

It’ll be a rematch between two recent CFP champions that last faced off five years ago in the 2021 College Football Playoff national championship game, which Alabama won 52-24 for what would be the program’s sixth and final national title under former head coach Nick Saban.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 4 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 4 Texas A&M

While they differ on the who, both ESPN prognosticators envision an All-SEC Sugar Bowl quarterfinal in New Orleans, and they both envision it’ll be a rematch of their projected SEC title game in Atlanta.

Bonagura projects the Sooners will get an opportunity for revenge against the SEC champion Rebels, who are riding high off Saturday’s upset of No. 4 LSU, while Bonagura expects Ole Miss will have their own chance at revenge against the upstart Aggies, who continue to impress in Year 2 under Mike Elko.

CFP National Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 4 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon

Bonagura is going all chalk with his semifinal picks, beginning with a traditional 1 vs. 4 matchup between the SEC champion Rebels and the Big Ten champion Buckeyes. It’ll be the biggest game of Lane Kiffin’s revitalized coaching career and the SEC’s last chance to end the Big Ten’s reign of dominance.

Schlabach, meanwhile, has Dante Moore and the Ducks continuing to turn heads after a one-and-done Playoff appearance last season, only to match up with the ACC champion Hurricanes. If last Saturday’s regular-season game in Happy Valley was any indication, Oregon has what it takes to go the distance.

CFP National Semifinal at Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio State

More consensus, albeit inversed, as both ESPN experts are projecting the same exact semifinal matchups though in different games. Bonagura envisions the Miami-Oregon semifinal will take place in Atlanta instead of Phoenix as Schlabach projects.

By the same token, Schlabach actually picked a quarterfinal upset as the Rebels avenge their SEC title game loss to Texas A&M only to secure a return trip to Atlanta for a date with the top-overall seed in Ohio State. As mentioned above, Ole Miss represents the SEC’s final chance to end the Big Ten’s reign.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Of course, at least based on what Bonagura and Schlabach have already seen this season, the dominance of the Big Ten will continue for a third consecutive year as both ESPN prognosticators project an All-Big Ten national championship game between the same two teams that met in Indianapolis.

The reigning national champion Buckeyes get a chance to defend their title against the super-charged Ducks, which look like the most complete team in college football after spoiling Penn State’s White Out last Saturday night in a not-so Happy Valley.

ESPN’s full 2025 bowl slate predictions

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Alabama State vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Navy vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Troy vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Buffalo

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Clemson
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Pittsburgh

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Louisiana-Monroe vs. Louisiana Tech

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Utah State vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Central Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Michigan State

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Rice vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: SMU vs. Kansas State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: SMU vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Duke vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Maryland

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Memphis

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Iowa State

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Cal
Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Texas State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Florida State vs. LSU
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Tennessee

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: TCU vs. Missouri

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Carolina vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Auburn vs. NC State

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Houston vs. Western Kentucky

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Mississippi State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Texas
Schlabach: Iowa vs. LSU

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Duke vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Kansas vs. UTSA

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Auburn
Schlabach: BYU vs. South Carolina

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Virginia vs. Vanderbilt

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Washington
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona State