Bowl Projections: ESPN predicts 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, full bowl slate after Week 7

The 2025 college football season has officially reached the halfway point following another wild slate of games in Week 7 that saw an eye-popping eight Top 25 teams go down. That included former No. 3 Oregon getting humbled by Big Ten rival Indiana and a third-straight loss for Penn State, which fired head coach James Franklin on Sunday after the Nittany Lions likely fell out of College Football Playoff contention Saturday.

Of course, with the first official reveal of the CFP’s weekly rankings still a month away, all current Playoff forecasts are mere projections. But that doesn’t stop ESPN prognosticators Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach from projecting what the 2025 postseason could look like based on the first seven weeks of the regular season.

Keep in mind, this year’s 12-team CFP bracket format does away with automatic first-round byes for conference champions, with the opening byes going to the Playoff’s top four highest-ranked teams. That change aside, the first round will once again feature on-site home games for the highest-ranked teams numbered 5-8, just like last season. The first-round winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and subsequently to the semifinals, at previously-designated bowl sites.

Check out ESPN’s updated 12-team College Football Playoff bracket projection and the full bowl slate below:

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 1

Bonagura: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Ole Miss

The ESPN experts both expect the American Confernce champion to make the 12-team field as the highest-ranked Group of Five qualifier, though they’re conflicted on the who. Bonagura remains high on Memphis closing the deal while Schlabach is still all-in on USF getting it done.

Bonagura gives the No. 5 seed to his projected Big 12 champion Texas Tech, which routed Kansas 42-17 on Saturday, while Schlabach believes the SEC runner-up Rebels will lock down the first at-large bid after falling to Texas A&M in Atlanta.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 2

Bonagura: No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Texas Tech

Both ESPN prognosticators expect the SEC will lead the way with five Playoff bids, and the both agree that LSU will be that fifth SEC team to make the 12-team field. Bonagura then matches the Tigers up with SEC runner-up Ole Miss in an all-SEC revenge game from their Week 5 showdown, a Rebels win.

Meanwhile, Schlabach has LSU facing off against the Big 12 champion Red Raiders as the No. 6 seed in a matchup between two of the biggest spenders in the NCAA Transfer Portal. Both teams remade their rosters this past offseason in an attempt to make a deep Playoff run.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 3

Bonagura: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Alabama

Bonagura once again matches two of the SEC’s five bids against one another in another All-SEC first-round showdown, and its another opportunity for revenge after the Crimson Tide handed the Bulldogs their first loss of the season 24-21 in Athens last month.

Schlabach also expects Alabama to lock down the No. 7 seed, where it’ll play host to ACC runner-up Georgia Tech in a game that will have Yellow Jackets head coach Brent Key squaring off against his former employer after serving as the Tide’s OL coach from 2016-18.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 4

Bonagura: No. 9 Georgia Tech at No. 8 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Georgia

Bonagura is finally on the Yellow Jackets’ Playoff train as Georgia Tech (6-0, 3-0 ACC) looks primed to roll through league play before losing to Miami in the ACC title game. That would lead to a cross-country trip to Eugene for a date vs. the Ducks, who secures the Big Ten’s third Playoff bid despite Saturday’s loss.

Meanwhile, Schlabach also expects Oregon to bounce back and still make the 12-team field, only to face the eighth-seeded Bulldogs in game that will pit Ducks coach Dan Lanning against his former boss Kirby Smart and Georgia, where he cut his coaching teeth as a defensive coordinator from 2018-21.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl

Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Indiana

Bonagura expects Kalen DeBoer and the Crimson Tide will once again have Georgia’s number in the first round to set up a quarterfinal date with the Hoosiers, who are riding high after Saturday’s win over Oregon and would earn the No. 2 seed despite falling to Ohio State in Indianapolis.

Schalbach, on the other hand, has the Hoosiers securing the third overall seed as Big Ten runner-ups before matchup up against the Big 12 champion Red Raiders after knocking off LSU in their first-round game in Lubbock.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Miami

Both ESPN prognosticators expect the Hurricanes to blow through the rest of the ACC the rest of the season and secure a first-round bye as either the second or third seed overall. And both believe that will set up a quarterfinal date with a SEC power in Miami.

Bonagura believes that team will be the SEC runner-up Rebels, pitting two former Alabama assistants — Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin and Miami’s Mario Cristobal — against one another. Schlabach, meanwhile, just goes ahead and matches Cristobal against the Crimson Tide, where he was the OL coach from 2013-16.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State

The ESPN experts both project the top-ranked Buckeyes will go on to run the table and win the Big Ten outright, only to match up against an uber-talented No. 8 seed that hasn’t seen its season get off to the start it hoped.

Bonagura projects the Buckeyes will play Oregon in an all-Big Ten quarterfinal inside the Granddaddy of them All after the two conference powers avoided each other during the regular season. Schlabach, meanwhile, pits two of the last three CFP champions against one another in a Big Ten-vs-SEC showdown.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 4 Texas A&M

Bonagura remains quite high on the Red Raiders, which would dispatch Memphis in the first round to set up a Lonestar State battle of conference champs against the SEC-winning Aggies. This would be the first meeting between the former Big 12 rivals since 2011.

Schlabach also projects Texas A&M will secure the No. 4 seed as the SEC champions by knocking off the Rebels in Atlanta, only for the league’s two highest-ranked teams to meet again a few weeks later in the second round of the Playoffs in New Orleans.

CFP National Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Miami

It’s all chalk for both ESPN prognosticators as all four of their top seeds win their respective quarterfinal games to set up some intriguing Power Four matchups in the semifinals. And they both have the same exact semifinal matchups, though they disagree on where those games will be played.

Bonagura expects the SEC champion Aggies will face the top-seeded and Big Ten champion Buckeyes in the Fiesta Bowl, while Schlabach has the ACC champion Hurricanes taking on the upstart Hoosiers in the desert.

CFP National Semifinal at Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Bonagura also projects Miami will take on the Big Ten runner-up Hoosiers, though in Atlanta, with a national championship ticket on the line. The game would pit two of this past offseason’s biggest QB transfers — Miami’s Carson Beck and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza — against one another.

Meanwhile, Schlabach envisions an epic Big Ten-vs-SEC showdown going down in Atlanta, as the SEC champion Aggies represent its league’s best and last chance to end the Buckeyes’ reign over college football inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Miami vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Finally some disagreement. While both Bonagura and Schlabach project a traditional 1 vs. 2 national championship game, they disagree which No. 2 seed will ultimately look to keep the defending champion Buckeyes from becoming a back-to-back winners in Miami.

Bonagura remains high on the Big Ten, which he expects will win a third-straight CFP national title regardless of who comes out on top in an All-Big Ten national championship game. Meanwhile, Schlabach has the ACC-champion Hurricanes as college football’s last chance to halt the Big Ten’s dominion over the sport.

ESPN’s full 2025 bowl slate predictions

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Buffalo

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Wake Forest
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Florida State

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Temple vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Arizona
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: San Diego State vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Bowling Green
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Central Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Minnesota

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Army vs. Penn State
Schlabach: TCU vs. UNLV

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Navy
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Maryland
Schlabach: Duke vs. Penn State

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Tulane
Schlabach: NC State vs. Memphis

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Virginia vs. BYU

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. James Madison
Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Appalachian State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Duke vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Oklahoma

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Missouri

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. UCF
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Syracuse

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Louisiana Tech

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Mississippi State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Texas

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Florida State vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Tennessee

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Utah
Schlabach: Illinois vs. California

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Northwestern

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Houston vs. South Carolina

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: SMU vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Vanderbilt

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Washington
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona State