Bowl Projections: ESPN predicts 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, full bowl slate after Week 9

Week 9 might not have had the same amount of Top 25 chaos as in previous weeks after only six ranked teams fell this past weekend, but it’s who lost that could have wide-ranging implications in this year’s College Football Playoff race. Key among those was No. 18 South Florida‘s 34-31 loss to Memphis on Saturday, throwing both the American Conference race and the battle for the Group of Five’s Playoff bid into a blender with just one month left in the regular season.

The first official reveal of the College Football Playoff’s weekly rankings is Nov. 4 — just one week from Tuesday. But in the meantime, ESPN prognosticators Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach have provided a projection of what the 2025 postseason could look like based on the first nine weeks of the season.

Keep in mind, this year’s 12-team CFP bracket format does away with automatic first-round byes for conference champions, with the opening byes going to the Playoff’s top four highest-ranked teams. That change aside, the first round will once again feature on-site home games for the highest-ranked teams numbered 5-8, just like last season. The first-round winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and subsequently to the semifinals, at previously-designated bowl sites.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 1

Bonagura: No. 12 Navy at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 Navy at No. 5 Georgia 

Finally, we have some Group of Five consensus from the ESPN insiders. Following USF’s loss to Memphis on Saturday, both Bonagura and Schlabach agree the unbeaten Midshipmen are now the favorites to win the American Conference and thus would lock up the Playoff’s 12th and final at-large bid.

Of course, whoever Navy plays will be a challenge, with Bonagura projecting one-loss Oregon will win out and secure the fifth seed by avoiding the Big Ten title game. Schlabach is much higher on the SEC than his colleague and has Georgia locking down the fifth overall seed with SEC teams claiming seeds 3-6.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 2

Bonagura: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 11 Vanderbilt at No. 6 Ole Miss

Bonagura still has two Big 12 teams earning Playoff bids, though Week 10’s Top 25 showdown between No. 10 BYU and No. 13 Texas Tech will likely change things next week. But for the moment, the Red Raiders still make the 12-team field as Big 12 runner-ups with a first-round game at Georgia.

Schlabach, meanwhile, has five total SEC teams making the 12-team field thanks to a late-season surge by Vanderbilt, which secures the 11th seed after taking down Missouri 17-10 in Nashville on Saturday. Of course, the Dores’ Playoff road includes an All-SEC first-round date vs. the sixth-seeded Rebels in Oxford.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 3

Bonagura: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Georgia Tech

Both ESPN experts remain high on the unbeaten Cougars to finish the regular season strong and secure the Big 12’s automatic bid as conference champions. Of course, BYU faces its first serious test in two weeks with a Big 12 road game at No. 13 Texas Tech, a game that will certainly impact the Playoff race.

But where they differ is who the Cougars will play in the first round, with Bonagura giving the nod to Lane Kiffin and the surging Rebels after knocking off Oklahoma at home Saturday. Meanwhile, Schlabach has the unbeaten Yellow Jackets edging out Miami to win the ACC title and earn the seventh seed.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 4

Bonagura: No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Georgia Tech
Schlabach: No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Miami

Bonagura projects the fourth and final first-roung game will actually be a rematch of the ACC Championship game between Miami and Georgia Tech, with the Yellow Jackets winning the conference title in Charlotte only to host the ‘Canes two weeks later in Atlanta.

Meanwhile, Schlabach dropped Oregon three spots and out of hosting a first-round game after what he called a “lackluster 21-7 win over struggling Wisconsin” in Eugene on Saturday. That would send the Ducks across the country for a potential Mario Cristobal bowl against the ACC runner-up Hurricanes.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl

Bonagura: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama

Bonagura has the Rebels getting past BYU only to set up what is sure to be a highly-anticipated SEC vs. Big Ten showdown in a game between two of college football’s hottest names on the coaching carousel — Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin and Indiana’s Curt Cignetti.

Schlabach, meanwhile, projects an All-SEC quarterfinal in Dallas, and a rematch of Alabama’s 24-21 road win over the Bulldogs in Athens. Since then, the Crimson Tide continued to roll on while Georgia has bounced back nicely and is poised to make the Playoff as the CFP’s top at-large seed.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4. Alabama
Schlabach: No. 7 Georgia Tech vs. No. 2 Indiana

After getting past BYU in the first round, Schalbach pits the ACC champion Yellow Jackets against Big Ten runner-up Indiana in the Orange Bowl quarterfinal, creating an interesting matchup between programs that most didn’t even pegged to make the Playoffs before the season.

Meanwhile, Bonagura projects Oregon will dispatch Navy only to face off against the SEC runner-up Crimson Tide in Miami. This would be a bit of a trip down memory lane for Ducks coach Dan Lanning, who cut his teeth in the coaching ranks as an Alabama grad assistant under Nick Saban in 2015.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 8 Georgia Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Bonagura still considered the undefeated Yellow Jackets to be a bit of an “unknown,” at least compared to the other ACC contenders, but gives them the benefit of the doubt as the league’s lone unbeaten only to match them against the reigning national champion Buckeyes in The Granddaddy of Them All.

Schlabach, meanwhile, projects a second-consecutive All-Big Ten Rose Bow by giving the Ducks a chance at revenge — and redemption — after last year’s quarterfinal collapse against Ohio State. Can the high-powered Ducks avenge last season’s 41-21 loss in Pasadena and end the Buckeyes’ chance at repeating?

CFP National Quarterfinal at Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M

The fourth and final Playoff quarterfinal is setting up to be an All-SEC showdown in New Orleans, after both ESPN experts project the SEC champion Aggies will take one of the SEC’s at-large qualifiers for a trip to the national quarterfinals on the line.

Bonagura gives the nod to the sixth-seeded Bulldogs, fresh off a first-round win over Big 12 runner-up Texas Tech, while Schlabach has the surging Rebels facing off against the SEC champion Aggies in a matchup pitting two of the conference’s top scoring offenses this season.

CFP National Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Schlabach finally delivers a quarterfinal upset by projecting the fifth-seeded Bulldogs will utlimately get their revenge against fourth-seeded Alabama in the Cotton Bowl to set up what is sure to be a must-see SEC vs. Big Ten matchup in Arizona against reigning national champion Ohio State.

Bonagura also has the top-seeded Buckeyes taking on a familiar SEC foe in the fourth-seeded Crimson Tide, who gets past Oregon only to set up a rematch of the 2021 CFP National Championship Game in which Alabama dominated Ohio State 52-24 to secure Nick Saban’s final national title in 2020.

CFP National Semifinal at Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana

While they differed in their Fiesta Bowl semifinal, both ESPN prognosticators are in agreement on the Playoff’s other semifinal in Atlanta, where second-seeded Indiana would take on the SEC champion Aggies in the same stadium they secured their first-ever SEC title a month earlier.

It would also match a pair of second-year head coaches that have completely rewritten the narrative around their respective football programs, with Mike Elko turning A&M into a conference champion in Year 2 while Cignetti transformed the Hoosiers into a perennial Big Ten superpower.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State

One upset was all Bonagura and Schlabach could muster as they both remain in agreement that the 2025 national championship game will be a rematch of the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis a month earlier.

Bonagura and Schlabach expect the two most dominant teams through the first nine weeks of the regular season will ultimately be there in the end to secure the Big Ten a third-consecutive national championship regardless of which team ultimately hoists the trophy in Miami.

ESPN’s full 2025 bowl slate predictions

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Alabama State vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. Delaware State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kennesaw State vs. Temple
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Marshall

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Western Michigan

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: North Texas vs. Florida State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Wake Forest

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Ohio vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Temple vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Troy
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Baylor
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Central Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Minnesota

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Miami (Ohio)

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Clemson vs. South Florida

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. South Florida
Schlabach: NC State vs. Memphis

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. Houston
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Cincinnati

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: Washington State vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Arizona
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. Arizona

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. LSU
Schlabach: Virginia vs. LSU

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Houston vs. Oklahoma

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Memphis vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Troy vs. UConn

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Louisiana Tech

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Texas
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Auburn

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Washington
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Duke vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona State

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. California

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Auburn
Schlabach: TCU vs. UNLV

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Pitt vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Louisville vs. USC
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Utah