College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: ESPN breaks down who's in, who's out after Week 5

Following a chaotic Week 5 slate that saw six Top 25 teams go down, including three in the Top 5, the 2025 college football season is officially at its half-way point entering Week 6 of the regular-season. As the calendar turns the page to October, ESPN insider Heather Dinich overhauled her projections for how the College Football Playoff’s 12-team field would look five weeks in.

In her latest CFP update piece filed Tuesday morning, Dinich has Penn State firmly on the Playoff bubble after its 30-24 loss in double-overtime to Big Ten rival Oregon. She similarly dropped LSU into the “spotlight” after the former No. 4 Tigers came up short on the road with a 24-19 loss at Ole Miss. Meanwhile, she was more forgiving with Georgia, which suffered a 24-21 home loss to Alabama, and keeps the reigning league champion Bulldogs among her five SEC teams currently in the 12-team field.

Dinich breaks down her College Football Playoff projections based on conference affiliation and places teams into three main tiers: would be in, work to do and would be out. The “work to do” tier is effectively each conference’s bubble teams that still must prove they belong in this year’s Playoff field.

Check out how Dinich views the current College Football Playoff field after Week 5:

ACC

Would be in: Florida State, Miami
Work to do: Georgia Tech, Cal, Louisville, NC State, Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Dinich still has No. 3 Miami (4-0, 0-0 ACC) and No. 18 FSU (3-1, 0-1 ACC) in her 12-team field ahead of their Week 6 meeting in Tallahassee, with the loser potentially on the outside looking in at this time next week depending on Saturday’s outcome. She spotlighted ACC-leading Georgia Tech (5-0, 2-0 ACC) as a potential bubble team that could still work its way into the 12-team field if the Yellow Jackets continue to work its way through the ACC and make the conference title game in Charlotte.

The ESPN insider also sees potential for No. 24 Virginia (4-1, 2-0 ACC) to build off last Friday’s 46-38 double-overtime win over then-No. 8 Florida State, especially if the Cavaliers remain undefeated in ACC play. That said, Dinich is less confident in Virginia, citing ESPN’s FPI showing a less-than-50-percent chance to win at Louisville and at Duke moving forward. The Cavs must also hope the ‘Noles remain in the Playoff hunt so further strengthen their resume.

Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Work to do: Penn State, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin

Dinich dinged the Nittany Lions for their home loss to No. 2 Oregon (5-0, 2-0 B10) on Saturday, specifically citing Penn State’s lack of a win against a fellow Power Four program through the first five weeks of the season. Of course, Dinich acknowledged the seventh-ranked Nittany Lions (3-1, 0-1 B10) can still punch its Playoff ticket in early November with games against No. 1 Ohio State and No. 8 Indiana, both of whom are currently in Dinich’s 12-team field.

Dinich also mentioned No. 20 Michigan (3-1, 1-0 B10) as her Big Ten “enigma,” though questioned whether the Wolverines will have the resume to earn a Playoff bid with only one ranked game currently on its schedule — in the regular season finale vs. the Buckeyes. No. 22 Illinois (4-1, 1-1 B10) is another bubble team after its 34-32 win over a ranked USC last weekend, though the Fighting Illini face the same situation Michigan does with OSU representing its lone ranked opponent ahead.

Big 12

Would be in: Texas Tech
Work to do: BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, UCF, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State

Dinich doesn’t mince words about the Big 12’s Playoff chances, firmly placing it as a likely one-bid league for the second straight season, and giving the nod to projected conference champion Texas Tech. Part of that projection is based on the 11th-ranked Red Raiders’ remaining schedule, beginning with Saturday’s Week 6 matchup at Houston before currently-ranked games against No. 25 Arizona State and No. 23 BYU.

The aforementioned Cougars are Dinich’s Big 12 “enigma” bubble team given what’s ahead on BYU’s remaining schedule, including ranked road games at No. 14 Iowa State and No. 11 Texas Tech. Dinich cited the Cougars’ 42.7-percent chance to not only make the Big 12 title game but a 26.1-percent chance to win it outright, according to ESPN Analytics. Of course, that’s a tall task at this point.

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Work to do: LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina

As mentioned above, Dinich has No. 13 LSU firmly on the Playoff bubble after its road loss at new No. 4 Ole Miss. She based that on ESPN Analytics’ evaluation that the Tigers now have just a 2.9-percent chance of making the SEC championship game with the league’s 10th-best chances of making it to Atlanta. Of course, LSU still controls its destiny with Top 25 games against Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Alabama ahead before closing out the regular season at Oklahoma.

Dinich isn’t completely sold on No. 16 Vanderbilt as a Playoff contender, describing the Commodores as an “enigma” ahead of its Week 6 road game at No. 10 Alabama. If Diego Pavia and company can do the unthinkable and knock off the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, Vanderbilt could leapfrog into Dinich’s Playoff field. By that same token, a loss could end the Dores’ playoff chances before they ever get started.

Independent

Would be out: Notre Dame

Dinich is currently out on the No. 21-ranked Fighting Irish (2-2) after they dropped the two toughest games on its 2025 schedule in the first three weeks of the regular season to Miami and Texas A&M. Notre Dame still has its annual rivalry game against USC (4-1, 2-1 B10) two weeks from Saturday, but given the Trojans are currently unranked after last weekend’s loss at Illinois, even winning out might not be enough to get the two-loss Irish into the final 12-team field. Though Dinich isn’t completely out on Notre Dame.

Group of Five

Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV

Based on what she’s seen through the first five weeks of the regular, Dinich is confident that unranked Memphis (5-0, 1-0 AAC) will end up winning the American and being the highest ranked Group of Five champion. She cites the Tigers’ 32-31 home win over the SEC’s Arkansas two weeks ago, as well as future games against fellow American contenders South Florida (3-1), Tulane (4-1, 1-0 AAC) and Navy (4-0, 3-0 AAC) to end the regular season.

The Midshipmen could lead the American with a 3-0 conference record having notched wins over UAB, Tulsa and Rice ahead of Week 6’s home game vs. Air Force. Should Navy keep rolling through the AAC, and possibly notch a potential Top 25 road win at No. 21 Notre Dame, it could punch its Playoff ticket before even playing the Army-Navy game on Dec. 13. That said, ESPN Analytics gives the Midshipmen just a 12-percent chance of making the American title game, so there’s still much to do.