College Football Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 after Survival Saturday with a shakeup at No. 1
Call it Survival Saturday.
Week 8 was all about close calls and upsets averted, as Florida State, Washington, Texas, Oklahoma and Alabama all rallied for comeback wins to remain in the Top 10. Ole Miss, Utah and Tulane squeaked out wins.
But North Carolina wasn’t so fortunate, losing 31-27 as a 24-point favorite at home to a 1-5 Virginia team.
Meanwhile, Ohio State took care of business against Penn State for the biggest win of the weekend, while Michigan again looked like the most impressive team in the country. With 21 ranked teams in action, there was still some movement in the latest AP Poll Top 25.
With all the moving and shaking, here’s how I think the new AP Top 25 will look come Sunday:
1. Michigan (Last week: 2)
The Wolverines claimed yet another victim in its march toward their first championship since 1997, pummeling in-state rival Michigan State 49-0 in East Lancing.
Jim Harbaugh made sure the Spartans remembered what happened in the postgame fracas in the tunnel last season, opting not to run out the clock late and scoring an eff-you touchdown with eight seconds left in the game.
Quarterback J.J. McCarthy tossed a career-high four touchdowns — three in the first half — as the junior quarterback continues to climb up Heisman boards with another efficient outing (21 of 27 for 287 yards).
Michigan has again yet to face a defensive snap inside the 10-yard line and safety Mike Sainristil added his second pick-six of the season to his ledger.
2. Georgia (Last week: 1)
Battling a litany of injuries across the roster, the Bulldogs had a well-timed idle date this week. Georgia will likely miss star tight end Brock Bowers for most (if not all) of the rest of the regular season, but several other key starters could return to action next weekend in Jacksonville.
UGA will put its 34-game winning streak on the line in what was formally known as the World’s Greatest Outdoor Cocktail Party against archrival Florida.
3. Ohio State (Last week: 3)
Behind a game-changing effort from star wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State won a rock right against Penn State to remain undefeated and atop the Big Ten standings.
In the Buckeyes’ 20-12 victory, Harrison had a career-high 11 catches for 162 yards and a late fourth-quarter touchdown to put the game to bed.
The rest of Ohio State’s offense could do next-to-nothing against Penn State’s No. 1 overall defense, but it didn’t matter because Harrison provided enough fireworks to support a dominant OSU defensive performance.
Ohio State smothered Penn State, allowing just 240 total yards. It didn’t allow a third down conversion or a play inside the 20 yard line until the final 45 seconds of the game.
4. Florida State (Last week: 4)
The Seminoles exited Week 8 with a solid come-from-behind 38-20 win over a pesky Duke team to remain the lone undefeated team in the ACC. FSU got off to a slow start at home against the Blue Devils, trailing 20-17 at halftime. But quarterback Jordan Travis did a little bit of everything for the ‘Noles to spearhead the comeback victory. He accounted for 330 total yards and three scores, including the go-ahead touchdown on a 2-yard run early in the fourth quarter.
FSU, which was stoned on a pair of 4th-and-1s in the first half, now has second-half comeback wins against three at-the-time Top 25 teams (LSU, Clemson and Duke).
5. Washington (Last week: 5)
After their thrilling 36-33 win over Oregon last weekend, the Huskies came out completely flat against a 1-5 Arizona State team at home, needing a fourth-quarter, 88-yard pick-six to score the go-ahead touchdown to beat the Sun Devils 15-7.
Michael Penix Jr. put a dent his in Heisman Trophy hopes with a three-turnover, zero-touchdown, what-is-going on showing against Arizona State.
The senior threw for a season-low 275 yards and averaged just 6.5 per attempt. In a total outlier performance by Kalen DeBoer’s offense, the Huskies couldn’t muster anything on the ground either, totaling just 13 yards on 13 carries.
Still, the Huskies survived and advanced to remain the lone undefeated team in the Pac-12.
6. Oklahoma (Last week: 6)
Perhaps the Sooners enjoyed basking in the glory of beating Texas a little too much during their bye week. They needed a stop on a trick play two-point conversion to survive UCF’s upset bid, outlasting the Knights 31-29.
Oklahoma was a 17-point favorite but found itself down late in the second quarter before kicking a game-tying field goal just before halftime. It trailed UCF 23-17 when quarterback Dillon Gabriel led a go-ahead scoring drive in the fourth quarter. Gabriel finished with 253 yards, three touchdowns and an interception against his former team.
7. Texas (Last week: 8)
The Longhorns came off their bye week humming, quickly building a 21-point lead against Houston by dominating the first 2.5 quarters. Quinn Ewers was cooking the Cougars’ secondary early, connecting with AD Mitchell for a 14-yard score and Xavier Worthy for a 42-yard strike in the first quarter.
Then Texas turned off the lights like the game was over, and its lead disappeared in a flash.
Houston rallied to tie the game, and the teams traded field goals before 5-star freshman CJ Baxter sprinted 16-yards for the game-winning touchdown. Texas stopped Houston on 4th-and-inches inside the 9-yard line — aided by an awful spot by officials on the previous down.
Notably, Ewers exited the game late in the third quarter after taking a shot on a scramble run. The Longhorns also struggled to stop Cougars quarterback Donovan Smith (378 yards and three scores) and up until their final TD drive they couldn’t run the ball with any consistency against the nation’s 91st rush defense (just 3.8 yards per carry on 37 attempts).
8. Oregon (Last week: 9)
Coming off last weekend’s tough, emotional loss to Washington, the Ducks came out flat at home against Washington State, leading just 17-13 at halftime. Then top tailback Bucky Irving took over, scoring a pair of 42-yard touchdowns — one rushing and one receiving — to see the Ducks pull away for a 38-24 win.
Bo Nix set a NCAA record with his 54th career start, while Irving had 180 total yards. A week after getting lit up in the secondary by Michael Penix, Oregon’s defense got shredded again (Wazzu quarterback Cameron Ward threw for 438 yards and a touchdown) — albeit in a win. The good news for the Ducks is they face Utah next weekend, and the Utes have one of the worst passing attacks (No. 125 nationally) in the country.
9. Alabama (Last week: 11)
Staring at a potential loss to Tennessee in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2003-04, the Crimson Tide turned in their most dominant half of the year, rallying from a 20-7 deficit to win 34-20 on the Third Saturday in October.
Jalen Milroe, Jace McClellan and the Tide’s defense fueled the comeback. Milroe struggled badly in the first half (just 97 yards and two turnovers) but it took him all of two plays to get going in the third quarter, connecting with Isaiah Bond for a 46-yard score. After Tennessee failed to convert on 4th-and-short shiy of midfield, McClellan responded with a 5-yard touchdown run to give the Tide a lead it would never relinquish.
With Tennessee’s offense completely turtling, the Tide added a sack-fumble for a scoop and score to punctuate their 27-unanswered point rally.
It’s certainly not Nick Saban’s best team, but the 2023 edition remains extremely mentally tough and still sit in the driver’s seat for the SEC West.
10. Penn State (Last week: 7)
Once again, Penn State proved unfit for primetime, showing up to the Horseshoe with Iowa’s offense (and gameplan). The Nittany Lions totally wasted an impressive defensive performance (nine tackles for loss, just 367 yards allowed) thanks to putrid offensive showing.
Quarterback Drew Allar was skittish and inaccurate (18 of 42) all afternoon. PSU’s offensive line couldn’t pass or run-block. It’s receivers couldn’t get open. The Nittany Lions were 1-16 on third downs — starting the game 0-15. Of their 68 plays, 27 went for zero or negative yardage (nearly 40%).
James Franklin is now 1-9 versus Ohio State and moved to 3-16 against Top 10 teams.
The rest of the projected AP Top 25:
11. Oregon State (Last week: 12)
The Beavers rolled up more than 400 yards against UCLA’s top-ranked defense last week, and they’ll need similar offensive showings the rest of the season if they hope to remain a contender in the Pac-12 race.
They come out of this weekend’s bye with a tricky road game at Arizona, and they finish the season with Washington and at Oregon.
12. Ole Miss (Last week: 13)
The Rebels couldn’t put away Auburn for close to three quarters Saturday night, but they held on to win 28-21 to go to 6-1 (3-1 SEC). Their offense was clunky for most of the game, but Jaxson Dart did account for three touchdowns and Quinshon Judkins had his best game of the 2023 season with 124 yards and a score on 21 carries.
Ole Miss held Auburn’s anemic passing attack to just 122 yards, but an inability to convert third downs kept the Tigers in the game until Dart’s touchdown on the final play of the third quarter — ending a streak of 13-straight drives without a score between the two teams.
13. Utah (Last week: 14)
Kyle Whittingham definitely has Lincoln Riley’s number. Utah beat USC for the third time in two seasons — and four straight overall — with a last-second field goal in a 34-32 comeback victory to remain in contention for a third-straight Pac-12 championship.
The Utes actually blew an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter, but former walk-on quarterback Bryson Barnes engineered the game-winning drive — capped by his 26-yard scramble to setup the 38-yard kick. Utah entered the game with the nation’s No. 117 offense, but two-way star Sione Vaki torched USC’s picket fence defense with five receptions for 149 yards, nine carries for 68 yards and total total touchdowns. Utah had nearly 500 yards — by far its best output of the entire season.
14. LSU (Last week: 19)
The Tigers bludgeoned a bad Army team, jumping out to a 38-0 lead at halftime before cruising to a 62-0 win. Quarterback Jayden Daniels padded his Heisman resume, going 11-of-15 for 279 yards and three touchdowns before ceding way to Garrett Nussemeier.
The Tigers high-powered offense again had over 570 yards, and their defense slowly is showing signs of improvement. They held Army to less than 200 yards with four takeaways (three interceptions). LSU will enter its bye week 6-2 with a chance to steal the SEC West tiebreaker over rival Alabama in two weeks in Tuscaloosa.
15. Notre Dame (Last week:15)
Notre Dame splattered USC 48-20, capping a gauntlet of four-straight games vs. Top 25 opponents in primetime going 2-2. The Irish have a chance to run the table coming out of their bye week, including winning at Clemson in two weeks.
16. Missouri (Last week: 20)
The Tigers are off to their best start since 2013, moving to 7-1 with a 34-12 blowout win at home against South Carolina. Star wideout Luther Burden III got back on track after being held to just two catches last weekend (four receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown), but it was tailback Cody Schrader who stole the show for Mizzou against the Gamecocks. The senior rushed for a career-high 159 yards with two touchdowns.
Missouri’s defense delivered its best showing of the season, too, holding Spencer Rattler to just 217 passing yards and keeping the Gamecocks out of the end zone — the first time the Tigers have done that to a SEC opponent in three seasons. They now have a week to rest up before a huge showdown at No. 1 Georgia.
17. North Carolina (Last week: 10)
With Halloween just around the corner, the Tar Heels’ improved defense turned back into a pumpkin against Virginia, allowing the Cavaliers to rush for 228 yards in a stunning 31-27 loss.
UVA, which was 1-5 and had lost eight straight to FBS opponents — came into the game with the worst ground game in the ACC (and No. 122 nationally), but quarterback Tony Muskett and tailback Perris Jones and Mike Hollins, who had three scores, all had over 60 yards to pave the way for the upset.
North Carolina was up 24-14 after a Drake Maye rushing touchdown in the third quarter, but UVA outscored UNC 17-3 the rest of the game — with Malik Washington’s go-ahead receiving touchdown with 8:51 remaining. The Tar Heels then went punt, turnover on downs and a Maye interception to end the game.
18. Louisville (Last week: 21)
The Cardinals laid a egg against 1-4 Pitt last weekend, snapping their six-game winning streak to start the 2023 season. While a bad loss, they should still remain in the ACC race with three straight home games coming out of their bye (Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech).
19. Air Force (Last week: 22)
Troy Calhoun surprised many by starting quarterback Zac Larrier, who was thought to be injured after last week’s win against Wyoming, but Larrier was healthy enough to complete the longest pass in school history with a 94-yard touchdown to spearhead the Falcons’ 17-6 win over archrival Navy.
Neither triple-option offense could muster much of anything, though, especially on the ground. Air Force had just 137 yards rushing, but it stoned the Midshipman’s ground game (just 22 yards allowed!) to remain undefeated.
20. Tulane (Last week: 23)
The Green Wave coughed up a 21-point lead to North Texas, only to stave off the upset with a 19-yard touchdown run by quarterback Michael Pratt inside the final three minutes. The senior finished with four total scores and 264 total yards in the 35-28 win.
The Green Wave’s defense felt apart in the second half, allowing the Mean Green to score three straight touchdowns out of halftime. North Texas opened the third quarter with a successful onside kick, too. But Pratt was able to answer the furious comeback attempt with his own heroics.
21. UCLA (Last week: 25)
Chip Kelly made the switch at QB, as the Bruins benched 5-star freshman Dante Moore for Ethan Garbers and the move paid off in a 42-7 drubbing over Stanford.
Garbers was 20-of-28 for 240 yards and two scores and added 51 yards rushing, and most importantly, didn’t turn the ball over, while Carson Steele chipped in three rushing touchdowns in the blowout win. The Bruins had a field goal blocked, but they outgained the Cardinal by over 200 yards, had zero turnovers and were 10-of-17 on third downs. UCLA faces an uphill battle to compete for the Pac-12 title, but this team is absolutely capable of playing spoiler down the stretch.
22. Duke (Last week: 16)
In a real surprise, injured quarterback Riley Leonard (high-ankle sprain) gutted it out and started against No. 4 Florida State, and his sheer presence seemed to help spur the Blue Devils’ upset bid despite his obvious limitations (7 of 16 for 69 yards and a pick, just one rush for 13 yards).
Duke held a 10-0 lead in the first quarter and was up 17-7 after a pick-six early in the second. But the good times didn’t last long, as the Blue Devils immediately allowed a 99-yard kickoff return and later saw Leonard exit the game with the same ankle injury. Their offense completely cratered thereafter, gaining just 55 yards the rest of the way as FSU turned a three-point deficit into a 18-point win.
23. James Madison (Last week: Unranked)
The Dukes (ridiculously can’t go to a bowl game or play for the Sun Belt Championship), but they make their debut in the Top 25 after beating Marshall 20-9 on the road Thursday night.
James Madison shutdown the Thundering Herd, allowing just 173 total yards and holding Marshall to 6 of 19 on third and fourth downs. They forced two turnovers and didn’t allow a single score until the fourth quarter. Dating back to last season, the Dukes have now won nine-straight games and are clearly the best team in the Commonwealth State this season.
24. Florida (Last week: Unranked)
The Gators were off Saturday, but USC, Iowa and Clemson all losing, UF is the most logical next-up team after receiving the 28th-most votes last week. Their resume still includes a win over Tennessee, too.
They play Georgia in Jacksonville on Saturday.
25. Tennessee (Last week: 17)
The Vols left some points on the scoreboard with a couple poor red zone trips, but otherwise they took it too the Tide in the first half in Tuscaloosa. Then they completely melted down, setting their chance to win at Alabama for the first time in 20 years go up in smoke.
The officiating certainly didn’t do Tennessee any favors Saturday (the Vols were penalized eight times for 55 yards compared to a single flag for the Tide), but the Vols squandered their 20-7 lead with plenty of their own self-inflicted mistakes.
After throwing for 175 yards and two touchdowns before halftime, Joe Milton turned in an awful second half. The quarterback’s shortcomings were magnified by the fact the Vols’ prolific run game was grounded — with the Tide holding UT to just 3.5 yards per carry. Tennessee failed to convert multiple 4th-and-shorts and had just 37 yards in the third quarter to see its lead disappear.
Projected to drop out: USC, Iowa