1st & 10: Heisman favorites indicate National Championship contenders
A number of sports books in recent weeks have put out odds pertaining to the 2024 college football season, and the odds surrounding certain Heisman Trophy contenders say a lot about who the national title contenders are.
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On Wednesday morning, FanDuel had Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers and Georgia quarterback Carson Beck as co-favorites with +750 odds. Behind that duo was Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel at +1000, Ohio State’s Will Howard and Alabama’s Jalen Milroe at +1200, and Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava at +1500.
Jaxson Dart’s absence from the top favorites was notable to me considering what Ole Miss has done this offseason, but he wasn’t too far away at +1800. Either way, the Heisman favorites, all quarterbacks, are all on great teams.
The Heisman has more or less become a “best quarterback on the best team” award, with some notable exceptions in recent years. But the favorites even at this early juncture indicate who the national title favorites are in 2024.
Georgia? Yup.
Texas? Of course (those two will square off in October, by the way).
Oregon? They were one last year with a super-duper senior quarterback. Thing is, they just fell to Washington twice in close contests. They’re a still a contender thanks to quality portal and high school recruiting.
Ohio State? It may not be because of Will Howard but it will be due to the Buckeye roster being as stout as ever.
There might be some quibble with Milroe’s presence after what’s taken place at Alabama, but let’s look at the most recent winner in Jayden Daniels to note there’s a path to the Heisman for a supernova quarterback on a really good team.
For the most part, however, the quarterbacks who are Heisman favorites are the quarterbacks on national championship contenders. It’s by no means an exact science, but it’s indicative of what the oddsmakers in Vegas think about the upcoming season.
A season where Texas will have one of the top returning quarterbacks in the nation.
1: ESPN’s Bill Connelly is one of the leading voices when it comes to using analytics to help describe what’s happening on the field and also project what might happen going forward. The transfer portal makes his projection process more difficult, but that means he has to go through things more closely than in previous years without the portal or multi-time transfers.
That led him to this opinion on Wednesday morning.
I think the inverse may be true for Texas. The Longhorns return starters Kelvin Banks, Hayden Conner, Jake Majors, and DJ Campbell. Plus, Cole Hutson, Connor Robertson, and Cam Williams all received valuable non-garbage time experience last season.
Meanwhile, Texas is losing T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy, and exchanged Trill Carter for Tiaoalii Savea. Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton return, but they played second fiddle to Sweat and Murphy.
There’s a lot of time left until the season starts, but Texas appears to be just fine on the O-line with D-line (and its coach) being a bit more up in the air.
2: Jim Harbaugh Watch continues, though at this juncture it appears like there are two options. The first is Harbaugh stays and keeps most of his national championship winning staff together while cycling through a number of players on a roster that won three straight Big 10 titles. The second is Harbaugh and an unknown amount of assistants leave, and Sherrone Moore is promoted. Something to constantly note about Texas’ week two opponent until Harbaugh says he’s staying in Ann Arbor or signs with Los Angeles or Atlanta.
3: Let’s go ahead and make two assumptions: Ewers declares for the NFL draft after the 2024 season and Arch Manning plays his redshirt freshman, sophomore and junior seasons at Texas before declaring for the 2027 NFL draft. At that point and making more assumptions, the quarterback room will feature Trey Owens and K.J. Lacey.
Owens and Lacey were hand-picked by Steve Sarkisian and AJ Milwee to join the Longhorn quarterback room, and any review of their high school film reveals why they were sought after by the Texas offensive brain trust.
But Sarkisian has shown a penchant for stacking the quarterback room with as much talent as possible, something numerous outlets lauded him for during the preseason.
The 2026 cycle presents an opportunity, if not a need, for Sarkisian to pursue one of the top-flight, five-star, nationally-known quarterback prospects.
Who are those prospects? That’s not quite yet certain. Only three prospects — Jared Curtis, Dia Bell, and Faizon Brandon — even show up in the 2026 On3 Industry Ranking at this early juncture. Plus, Sarkisian hasn’t even offered a 2026 quarterback yet.
But Sarkisian and Milwee are beginning to assess their options. They hosted Will Griffin, Buck Steyn, and Romain Seymour during the junior day.
No matter who Texas signs in 2026, which admittedly is a very long way away, it’s in Sarkisian’s best interest to keep the quarterback room as loaded with talent as possible. And that might be the cycle to shoot for the Ewers- or Manning-level prospect.
4: Another option for 2026? Newport Harbor (Calif.) signal-caller Jaden O’Neal, who On3’s Chad Simmons reported Tuesday Sark would see in person.
O’Neal was 249-for-343 during his sophomore season. He tallied 2475 yards and 27 touchdowns over 10 interceptions while also rushing for three scores.
5: Since Mohamed Bamba and Tre Young stepped foot on their respective campuses, Texas has won 10-of-13 versus Oklahoma. Most of the games have been tight, with only a couple decided by a margin greater than 10 points.
Last night’s 15-point win by the Longhorns was the most lobsided victory in men’s basketball over the Sooners since a 74-54 win on March 10, 2011 during the Big 12 Tournament.
The fact that Texas has won that many against its main rival, and has kept OU head coach Porter Moser winless in the Red River Shootout in five opportunities, should not be overlooked by Longhorn basketball fans.
6: The win over Oklahoma also bolsters Texas’ tournament resume. The Longhorns entered last night’s game as the No. 59 team in NET, which is the primary sorting tool used by the NCAA selection committee.
Texas jumped from 59 to 44… which is good for only 10th in the 14-team Big 12.
7: Sometimes a tweet is worth 1,000 words. Offseason workouts started for the Longhorns on Tuesday after an NCAA mandated period of rest following the Sugar Bowl.
No matter what’s being emphasized in this pushup drill posted to social media by Texas, it’s clear who is in the middle of things leading it with Torre Becton standing closeby
8: Offseason leadership can mean a little or it can mean a lot. I do believe in the “best players should be leaders” axiom, which is why you see Ewers featured prominently in one of the first two social media posts detailing offseason workouts.
Who else, especially now that the ranks have thinned from the 2021 class and the 2022 group is mostly set to carry the standard for the program? Here are five: Kelvin Banks, DJ Campbell, Ethan Burke, CJ Baxter, Anthony Hill.
9: The focus turning toward the class of 2025 reminds me that the first real recruiting class I followed in earnest was the 2015 class. That was the peak of the recruiting war between Charlie Strong and Kevin Sumlin, with Bob Stoops, Art Briles, Urban Meyer, Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney getting involved.
Some of the top battles? DeAndre McNeal, Kris Boyd, Holton Hill, Daylon Mack, Kendall Sheffield, Roney Elam, DeShon Elliott, Soso Jamabo, Tim Irvin, and, of course, Malik Jefferson and Kyler Murray.
10: Stay tuned to the On3 Team Rankings this week as various networks release their final 2024 class recruiting rankings. The Longhorns are currently sixth, just behind Miami and Ohio State.
