College Football Playoff: ESPN predicts 2025 12-team bracket, full bowl slate after Week 1

After a wild Week 1 where four preseason Top 10 teams went down, including unranked Florida State shocking the college football world with a 31-17 upset of then-No. 8 Alabama on Saturday, ESPN has completely overhauled its 2025 College Football Playoff bracket projections.

Following losses by preseason No. 1 Texas, No. 4 Clemson and No. 6 Notre Dame, ESPN prognosticators Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach shook up their Playoff projections ahead of Week 2’s slate of games.

Keep in mind, this year’s 12-team CFP bracket format does away with automatic first-round byes for conference champions, with the opening byes going to the Playoff’s top four highest-ranked teams. That change aside, the first round will once again feature on-site home games for the highest-ranked teams numbered 5-8, just like last season. The first-round winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and subsequently to the semifinals, at previously-designated bowl sites.

Check out ESPN’s full 12-team College Football Playoff bracket projection below:

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 1

Bonagura: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Miami

Both ESPN writers expect Tulane to come out of the highest-ranked Group of Five champion after winning the American Conference, bailing on Boise State repeating in that position after the Broncos lost their season-opener in convincing fashion to South Florida last Thursday.

That said, they split on the No. 5 seed with Bonagura expecting Oregon to finish the regular season as the Big Ten’s third team behind projected Top 2 seeds Ohio State and Penn State. Schlabach, meanwhile, has Miami getting the fifth seed as the ACC champions after knocking off Notre Dame at home on Sunday.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 2

Bonagura: No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Oregon

ESPN’s writers split on how many Big 12 teams ultimately make the field, with Bonagura projecting Arizona State will still make the 12-team field despite losing the Big 12 title game to Utah, while Schlabach gives the Utes the No. 11 seed as his Big 12 champions.

Bonagura and Schlabach flipped their fifth and sixth seeds with Bonagura slotting the Hurricanes as the No. 6 seed after beating Florida State in the ACC title game. Meanwhile, Schlabach has the Ducks as his No. 6 seed as the Big Ten’s third team in the 12-team field.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 3

Bonagura: No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State at No. 7 Clemson

Bonagura projects defending ACC champion Clemson secures the No. 10 seed after dropping their season-opener to LSU at home, where it will play another Week 1 loser in the seventh-seeded Longhorns, which make the field as the SEC’s third highest-ranked team despite not returning to Atlanta.

Schlabach expects an all-ACC first round matchup after last year’s ACC champion Clemson gets the No. 7 seed after falling to Miami in this year’s conference title game, where it faces off with Florida State, which makes its first-ever Playoff appearance two years after being held out.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 4

Bonagura: No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Texas

Bonagura remains quite high on Utah, projecting the Utes will win the Big 12 championship over Arizona State as both teams make the 12-team field, where it will face off against ACC runner-up Florida State despite falling to Miami in the conference title game.

Schlabach pits a pair of preseason Top 10 teams that fell in Week 1 in his 8 vs. 9 matchup, with Notre Dame making the 12-team field to face the preseason No. 1-ranked Longhorns, who makes its third-straight Playoff appearance despite not playing for the SEC title.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl

Bonagura: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 5 Miami vs. No. 4 Georgia

ESPN’s dueling writers are split on the Cotton Bowl quarterfinal, with Bonagura expecting the Longhorns to beat Clemson in the first round before what amounts to a home game in Dallas against the Big Ten runner-up Nittany Lions, who both writers expect will lose to Ohio State in the league title game.

Schlabach projects a wild Cotton Bowl that would pit transfer QB Carson Beck and Miami against his former program, the SEC runner-up Bulldogs, who earn the final Top-4 seed despite falling to LSU in the SEC Championship game from Atlanta.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU
Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State

Both writers expect Dan Lanning‘s Ducks will advance past the first round only to travel across the country to play in the Orange Bowl, though they differ on Oregon’s competition with Bonagura projecting LSU will earn a Top 4 seed despite losing the SEC title game to back-to-back league champ Georgia.

Schlabach, meanwhile, sees the Big Ten runner-up Nittany Lions in a rematch from Week 5 of the regular season when Penn State plays the Ducks, who once again fall in an All-Big Ten CFP quarterfinal after it famously lost to eventual national champion Ohio State last season.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State

As already mentioned, both Bonagura and Schlabach fully anticipate the reigning CFP national champion Buckeyes building off its Week 1 upset of Texas en route to securing 2025’s No. 1 overall seed as the Big Ten champions after losing in Indianapolis last season.

Where they split is Ohio State’s Rose Bowl competition, with Bonagura riding the FSU train under head coach Mike Norvell and new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, while Schlabach projects Notre Dame dispatching Texas in the first round only to fall to the Buckeyes in the Granddaddy Of Them All.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU

The final quarterfinal is a lot more complicated with Bonagura projecting the Sugar Bowl will be the Carson Beck bowl with the former Bulldogs transfer facing his former program in New Orleans a year after their quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame, though Georgia gets the better of the ‘Canes this time.

Schlabach, meanwhile, expects SEC champion LSU will effectively host FSU after the Seminoles get revenge on Clemson in their opening round matchup, though that ride ends in New Orleands as Brian Kelly finally notches a Playoff win.

CFP National Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 4 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Both of ESPN’s prognosticators project the Buckeyes will continue their Playoff success and face the SEC runner-up in the first CFP national semifinal, though they differ on the SEC representative.

Bonagura expects Kelly and the Tigers will escape the Orange Bowl with a victory over Oregon, only to succumb to Ohio State in Arizona, while Schlabach projects the Bulldogs will edge out Miami before running into the defending champion Buckeyes with a national title game appearance on the line.

CFP National Semifinal at Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 LSU

Bonagura and Schlabach both expect the Nittany Lions will make the CFP national semifinal for the second consecutive season, though they disagree on their seeding in the game.

Bonagura has Penn State facing the SEC champion Bulldogs in their home away from home in Atlanta, while Schalbach expects to see his projected SEC champion LSU will utlimately send the Nittany Lions packing with a second straight victory inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State

And it all comes down to this, the 2025 College Football Playoff national championship game, where the reigning champs from Ohio State get to defend their title inside Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

Where the ESPN writers differ is who the Buckeyes will play in a true 1 vs. 2 matchup, as Bonagura forsees an All-Big Ten national title game in a rematch from Indianapolis against the Nittany Lions. Meanwhile, Schlabach expects LSU to be the SEC’s last chance to avoid a third-straight Big Ten national champion.

ESPN’s full 2025 bowl slate predictions

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon ET, ABC
Bonagura: Southern vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Oregon State vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Cal vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Eastern Michigan

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: South Alabama vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Boston College
Schlabach: Missouri vs. Virginia

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Rice vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Sam Houston State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Navy

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Minnesota

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Arkansas State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 am ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Memphis
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Memphis

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon ET, ABC
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia vs. Navy
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Florida

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 pm ET, ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. BYU
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 pm ET, CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 pm ET, ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Alabama

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Tennessee

Monday, Dec. 29

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Missouri vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Boston College

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Liberty
Schlabach: BYU vs. Liberty

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Ole Miss

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. USC
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. South Carolina

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 pm ET, CBS
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Colorado

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 pm ET, ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Texas A&M

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Cal
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Oregon State

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Kansas vs. UTSA

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Florida
Schlabach: TCU vs. Oklahoma

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Florida

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 pm ET, FOX
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Washington
Schlabach: SMU vs. Washington