Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Ball State

From a gambling perspective, here’s a look at the Purdue-Ball State season opener matchup.

Covering The Tracks: Ball State

Futures

Purdue to win the national title: 1000-to-1

2025 Regular Season Wins O/U: 3.5

Purdue to win 6 or more games: 10-to-1

Purdue to win the Big Ten: 500-to-1 

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00 am on 8/29/25 via BetMGM:

Current spread: Purdue -17.5 (Opened Purdue -16.5).

Moneyline: Purdue -1000, Ball State +650

1H Spread: Purdue -9.5, O/U 26.5

Over/Under: 49.5 (Opened 50.5)

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 43% on Purdue, 52% on over

Money: 43% on Purdue, 29% on over

Executive Summary

Purdue comes into 2025 off its worst season in school history looking to bounce back under the Coach Barry Odom era.  For an early season game with a large spread, the public is on Ball State.  This should not be much of a surprise, it more so illustrates the reputation the program has after two years of Ryan Walters.  While more bets are coming in on the over, the money is coming in heavy on the under.  Purdue failed to cover in its debuts for Darrell Hazell and Ryan Walters (Cincinnati and Fresno State, respectively), but did cover in its debut for Brohm against Louisville in Lucas Oil.  Odom coached teams have covered the week 1 game in both of the past two years, suggesting that Odom may have a knack for off-season preparation.  The MAC has a streak of wins over Big Ten teams, and the public seems to think that Ball State will be the one to continue it.  Purdue alum, Mike Uremovich, makes his return to West Lafayette.   

Trend Analysis for Ball State

· UNLV was 6-4 ATS as a home favorite under Coach Barry Odom.

· UNLV was 9-2 ATS against non-conference opponents under Odom.

· UNLV was 2-0 ATS in Week 1 under Odom.  This included beating Bryant by 30 as a 16.5 point favorite and beating Houston by 20 as 3.5 point underdogs.

· The over was 6-4 when UNLV was a home favorite under Odom.

· The over was 5-6 when UNLV played a non-conference opponent under Odom.

· The over was 0-2 in UNLV’s week 1 games under Odom.

· Unfortunately, there is no trend analysis for Coach Mike Uremovich.  This is his first year at Ball State and at his prior job, Butler, there is no ATS or O/U data to analyze.  He has a head coaching record of 56-56 while at Butler and Saint Francis.

Miscellaneous Factors

· The Real MVP: The Gameday Program.  The most important item for Purdue fans to have on them this Saturday may be the gameday program handed out in the concourse.  With over 50 transfers plus a whole new freshman class, the Purdue football roster has seen one of the largest turnovers in college football history.  The interesting facet here, is that with so many new faces, many of those who have never played together, does anyone really know how this team will look?  IU was obviously the poster child last year, and everyone wants to be the 2024 Hoosiers, but, even Vegas should not be able to adequately predict this Purdue team for at least a game or two, there are just too many unknowns and uncertainties.  The only constant?  Mr. Mockobee.  Bet him accordingly.

· Coach Homecoming. A welcome home to Purdue alum and former McCutcheon High School Special Teams/Defensive Backs coach, Mike Uremovich.  A 2000 Purdue grad (pretty good year to be a Purdue football fan), Uremovich makes his homecoming looking to add to MAC upsets of Big Ten schools.  I would expect some extra emotion from Uremovich, who should give his players some extra motivation.  Does this allow for a quick Ball State start?  

Return of the Transfers.  Three players on the Ball State roster should be pretty familiar with the confines of Ross Ade Stadium.  Trey Firestone, Donovan Hamilton, and Elijah Jackson all are former Boilermakers who have since transferred to Ball State.  I imagine there will be at least a little chip on their shoulders as they go up against their former team.    

Gambling Analysis

Numbers: To be expected, the public is on Ball State.  So many of the early games you seen an absurd amount of money backing the favorite, especially with a spread this large.  Although it is not a huge discrepancy, the fact that more than 50% of the money is on Ball State is extremely telling for the general view on Purdue.  Clearly, a lot of folks do not believe Purdue can cover 17.5, and I would venture that a lot of those people think Ball State will win this game.  The public fade, which is kind of crazy to say, is Purdue -17.5.  From a total standpoint, there is a discrepancy in the amount of bets placed on the total versus the amount of money bet.  While more bets are coming in on the over, the money is coming in on the under.  This leads to an assumption that sharp money, due to the discrepancy in money bet versus total amount of bets.  The concern here is how much money is on the under, which has been reflected by the line movement.  The opening total was at 50.5, and with the money on the under, we have seen this line drop.   EDGE: Purdue -17.5, Under 49.5

Trends: There is not much trend analysis here on Ball State as mentioned above.  Odom was phenomenal ATS at UNLV, especially in non-conference games.  His 9-2 ATS record exemplifies that.  Another indicator of what could be is the success Odom’s UNLV teams showed in Week 1.  This speaks to Odom’s ability to prepare his team during the offseason for Week 1, and there has typically been a strong performance from Odom’s squad in these games.  There is not much to work with in terms of the total, but the trends from Odom’s time at UNLV give a slight edge to the under.  EDGE: Purdue, slight Under.

Situation:  Once you’ve hit rock bottom, you can only go up!  Purdue comes into 2025 without winning a single FBS game in 2024.  They were dubbed “the worst power conference team” in college football last season, and there is really nothing to refute that.  Being winless against FBS opponents is one thing, it is another to be completely blown out by almost every one of them (we will always have the overtime loss to Illinois, which, IT WAS A FUMBLE).  All of that to say, the public perception of Purdue could not be worse.  There is a stat making its rounds on Twitter regarding the MAC’s success each year upsetting a Big Ten team.  Obviously, Purdue has been the favorite pick amongst keyboard warriors.  The positive?  Purdue is severely undervalued here from a situational spot and public perception.  Nobody knows what this team is, but I do know that the best player on the field is in Purdue’s backfield, the best coach is on the Purdue sideline, and the much higher NIL football budget resides with the Purdue athletic department.  I am fading the public perception.  Is it biased?  Yeah.  We ride anyway.  EDGE: Purdue, Push.

Total Analysis:  Objectively, Ball State should be one of the worst teams in college football this year.  I would expect Odom to want to send a message to the Purdue fan base, that this is a new Purdue team, with a raised standard and more talent than people have given them credit for.  With the public backing Ball State, and Purdue having the upper hand with their running game, I would expect Purdue to pour it on and begin a narrative shift, similar to Brohm’s first game.  I expect a heavy dose of Mockobee, a big play from Jackson in the passing game, and a defensive touchdown to propel  Purdue to a  35-13 win.  

Official Plays: 2 Units Purdue -17.5, 1 Unit Under 49.5.

UNIT COUNTER YTD: +/- 0

Bonus Bets: BetMGM does not offer player props, so this portion will be discontinued.

Welcome to the 2025 edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by BetMGM sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 (-4.5 in my example above, obviously this number would change week to week) or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by 5 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats the hypothetical team above by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that would be helpful, please let me know.

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Ball State Roster | Ball State Game Notes

Pregame: First and 10: Ball State at Purdue | First Look: Ball State | Barry Odom: ‘Deep responsibility to get Purdue football back to winning for the people of Purdue’ | The 3-2-1: Talking scripts, captains, OC location and more as kickoff looms | Purdue punts on issuing depth chart prior to opener |