Assigning minute workloads for the 2022-23 Texas Longhorns
If you were a fan of the now-defunct Pretend We’re Football podcast (and, judging by the listener numbers towards the end of last year, you weren’t), you might remember a little game we played during our preseason shows where we predicted how many minutes we thought each player would play in the upcoming season.
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It’s a trickier exercise than it appears, actually. Especially with a roster like this one where there is perceived talent up and down the lineup.
Still, 200 minutes are 200 minutes and we chose to break down those predictions into one of three categories: 1) 25 mpg; 2) 12 mpg; 3) 3 mpg.
Okay, first…
The Roster
Timmy Allen (6’6” / 210 / Forward)
12.4 pts, 6.4 rbs, 2.1 asts on 49/27/73 shooting in 29.0 mpg
Christian Bishop (6’7” / 220 / Forward)
7.0 pts, 5.6 rbs, 0.7 asts on 60/33/66 shooting in 20.0 mpg
Brock Cunningham (6’6” / 210 / Forward)
2.3 pts, 2.3 rbs, 0.6 asts on 48/48/81 shooting in 11.7 mpg
Dylan Disu (6’9” / 225 / Forward)
3.7 pts, 3.2 rbs, 0.4 asts on 47/13/81 shooting in 10.9 mpg
Dillon Mitchell (6’8” / 205 / Forward)
McDonald’s All-American; #4 ranked overall recruit in On3 Consensus
Alex Anamekwe (6’5” / 200 / Forward)
#224 ranked overall recruit in On3 Consensus
Marcus Carr (6’2” / 175 / Guard)
11.4 pts, 1.9 rbs, 3.4 asts on 39/34/77 shooting in 30.9 mpg
Tyrese Hunter (6’0” / 175 / Guard)
11.0 pts, 3.5 rbs, 4.9 asts on 39/27/69 shooting in 31.9 mpg (Iowa State)
Sir’Jabari Rice (6’4” / 180 / Guard)
11.9 pts, 5.1 rbs, 3.1 asts on 39/34/78 shooting in 32.3 mpg (New Mexico State)
Arterio Morris (6’3” / 190 / Guard)
McDonald’s All-American; #19 ranked overall recruit in On3 Consensus
Rowan Brumbaugh (6’4” / 190 / Guard)
#85 ranked overall recruit in On3 Consensus
Totals: 59.7 pts, 28.0 rbs, 15.3 asts in 176.8 minutes. (This doesn’t include the high school stats of Mitchell, Morris, Brumbaugh or Anamekwe).
Now for the hard part of the exercise…
Those numbers simply can’t hold up, given the circumstances, and they’re not meant to.
Players like Rice and Hunter knew the drill when they transferred to Texas that their minutes would drop.
Just as obviously, the numbers 25, 12 and 3 will not actually be the numbers for just about any of the players.
Instead, this process could also be labeled Starter Minutes (25), Consistent Role Player (12), Redshirt Candidate (3).
I’ll do my best to make the numbers add up, exactly, to 200.
25
Sir’Jabari Rice
Rationale: Rice steps into the program as an almost ready made Chris Beard player. Skilled enough to handle the ball, score and pass on offense, long and athletic enough to effectively guard multiple positions on defense, Rice is tailor-made for Beard and his program.
Tyrese Hunter
Rationale: The Iowa State transfer guard lit up the college basketball world with his performance last March in the NCAA Tournament and Beard hopes to put that toughness, defense and clutch shot-making to use this year in Austin. If his shooting this season can more closely resemble his late-year shooting last season, look out.
Marcus Carr
Rationale: If you saw Carr this summer playing for Team Canada, double takes abound. His body-transformation (which is an impressive thing considering the amount of time he’s had in weight rooms during his time in college basketball) showed off a player better capable of staying on the court for long stretches and having the ability to get that extra bit out of himself in late-clock or breakdown situations. Don’t discount the help Rice and Hunter give Carr defensively as he’ll likely draw the third best perimeter player on that end which could open up some more opportunities for him to utilize his hoops IQ and talent as a gap filler on the break.
Timmy Allen
Rationale: Timmy represents the last, to me, sure-fire 25 minute player on this team. I don’t think there will only be four of them, but the picture gets a bit less clear from here on out. Not with Timmy, though. Allen will look to further solidify himself as a go-to scorer and tertiary playmaker on the interior for this team. As surprising as it sounds, given the potential drop off in amount of time Allen could spend as a playmaker, Timmy stands to benefit as much as anyone on the team from improved point guard play via Hunter, Carr and Rice as Timmy is lethal when he can attack against rotation or without as much concern for in-time help defenders. His defensive rebounding will also be counted upon to establish a high floor for the team on that side of the ball.
Dillon Mitchell
Rationale: Highest upside player on the team. Best athlete on the team. Great thinker and mover without the basketball. Biggest reason I think he likely belongs here at the 25 level is that I think he’ll prove he can guard opposing bigs for stretches. Still pretty raw, skills wise, on offense, but doesn’t need the ball in his hands to create offense and play effectively. If Mitchell is being talked about as a top-10 pick by February, this Texas team could be in a special place.
Dylan Disu
Rationale: It might seem strange to place Dylan here considering how well Christian Bishop played down the stretch last season, but I simply continue to believe in Disu and his upside. People who saw him play for Vanderbilt were salivating at what that guy could add to a Longhorn program devoid of that kind of height and rebounding voracity. And, while that version of Disu didn’t materialize last year, I have him high on my list of breakout candidates and a tough player to keep off the floor. Add in his still impressive potential as a three point shooter and I love where he could be for this team.
12
Christian Bishop
Rationale: The last month of the 2021-22 Texas season saw a Christian Bishop who was really rounding into form. He fought for rebounds well on both ends of the floor. He was a reliable help/switch defender. He seemed to grow dramatically in his comfort level in ball screen situations. It was very good. It would not surprise me at all if he’s Texas’ interior starter for the first month of the season. However, Disu is more talented. And I think this team will have the top-line pieces in place to allow Disu the time he needs to grow into this team’s rim protector and glass cleaner, relegating Bishop to a secondary role.
Arterio Morris
Rationale: The talent and skill level he displayed against Arkansas suggest a player who is more ready to make good on his sizable potential even earlier than the most optimistic might have hoped for. Morris’ ability to play/score at all three levels on offense sets him apart, as does his three point shooting thus far through the preseason. If the backcourt wasn’t so crowded, he’d be a 25 minute guy, for sure. But minutes will be hard to come by. Also, I don’t expect Arterio’s off-court issues to be a problem this season, but the possibility remains.
Brock Cunningham
Rationale: Gerry has referred to Brock as the most improved player in the program. I believe him. I also think Brock has the knowledge and mindset to be an impact player for this team. But will he be able to beat out Rice, Mitchell and Allen for bigger minutes? Rather, I think Brock is a guy who will get stretches every night where Texas needs him to come in and play his physical, aggressive style of basketball at as high of a level as he can for a few minutes at a time. Still, it’s quite comforting to know that Brock is locked-in and ready to come in and play big stretches of minutes when called upon.
3
Alex Anamekwe
Rationale: Beard likes Alex’s game, his physicality and potential. Still, he’ll get mop-up minutes in blowouts or low minutes in everything else for now.
Rowan Brumbaugh
Rationale: Rowan, similarly to Arterio, finds himself as a skilled playmaker and high-quality shooter who also happens to be behind three excellent perimeter options in Rice, Hunter and Carr (as well as Morris, in Brumbaugh’s case). A redshirt year is plausible and a year with few games of much real meaningful playing time seems likely.
The Endgame
You math majors out there will surely recognize that this only adds up to 192 minutes, but that’s just the way this kind stuff works out.
Maybe Anamekwe is at 6 minutes per game and maybe Cunningham is at 16.
Or whatever.
I do think this team is well proportioned and unquestionably talented.
What did I get wrong? Which of these guys will make me look stupid as the year progresses?
Thanks for reading, friends.
